• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident rate model

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Study on the Steam Line Break Accident for Kori Unit-1 (고리 1호기에 대한 증기배관 파열사고 연구)

  • Tae Woon Kim;Jung In Choi;Un Chul Lee;Ki In Han
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.186-195
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    • 1982
  • The steam line break accident for Kori Unit 1 is analyzed by a code SYSRAN which calculates nuclear power and heat flux using the point kinetics equation and the lumped-parameter model and calculates system transient using the mass and energy balance equation with the assumption of uniform reactor coolant system pressure. The 1.4 f $t^2$ steam line break accident is analyzed at EOL (End of Life), hot shutdown condition in which case the accident would be most severe. The steam discharge rate is assumed to follow the Moody critical flow model. The results reveal the peak heat flux of 38% of nominal full power value at 60 second after the accident initiates, which is higher than the FSAR result of 26%. Trends for the transient are in good agreement with FSAR results. A sensitivity study shows that this accident is most sensitive to the moderator density coefficient and the lower plenum mixing factor. The DNBR calculation under the assumption of $F_{{\Delta}H}$=3.66, which is used in the FSAR with all the control and the shutdown assemblies inserted except one B bank assembly and of Fz=1.55 shows that minimum DNBR reaches 1.62 at 60 second, indicating that the fuel failure is not anticipated to occur. The point kinetics equation, the lumped-parameter model and the system transient model which uses the mass and energy balance equation are verified to be effective to follow the system transient phenomena of the nuclear power plants.lear power plants.

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An Approximation Method in Bayesian Prediction of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents (원자력 발전소 사고의 근사적인 베이지안 예측기법)

  • Yang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 1990
  • A nuclear power plant can be viewed as a large complex man-machine system where high system reliability is obtained by ensuring that sub-systems are designed to operate at a very high level of performance. The chance of severe accident involving at least partial core-melt is very low but once it happens the consequence is very catastrophic. The prediction of risk in low probability, high-risk incidents must be examined in the contest of general engineering knowledge and operational experience. Engineering knowledge forms part of the prior information that must be quantified and then updated by statistical evidence gathered from operational experience. Recently, Bayesian procedures have been used to estimate rate of accident and to predict future risks. The Bayesian procedure has advantages in that it efficiently incorporates experts opinions and, if properly applied, it adaptively updates the model parameters such as the rate or probability of accidents. But at the same time it has the disadvantages of computational complexity. The predictive distribution for the time to next incident can not always be expected to end up with a nice closed form even with conjugate priors. Thus we often encounter a numerical integration problem with high dimensions to obtain a predictive distribution, which is practically unsolvable for a model that involves many parameters. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose a method of approximation that essentially breaks down a problem involving many integrations into several repetitive steps so that each step involves only a small number of integrations.

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Evaluation of hydrogen recombination characteristics of a PAR using SPARC PAR experimental results

  • Jongtae Kim;Jaehoon Jung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.4382-4394
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    • 2023
  • Passive auto-catalytic recombiners (PARs) are widely used to mitigate a hydrogen hazard. The first step to evaluate the hydrogen safety by PARs is to obtain qualified test data of the PARs for validation of their analytical model. SPARC PAR tests SP8 and SP9 were conducted to evaluate the hydrogen recombination characteristics of a honeycomb-shaped catalyst PAR. To obtain the hydrogen recombination rate from the PAR test data, two methods, Method-1 and Method-2, introduced by the THAI project, were applied. Since a large gradient of hydrogen concentration developed during hydrogen injection can cause a large error in the hydrogen mass obtained by integrating the measured hydrogen concentrations, a gate was installed at the PAR inlet to homogenize hydrogen in the test vessel before the PAR operation in the tests. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code with a PAR model was also applied to evaluate the characteristics of the PAR recombination according to the PAR inlet conditions, and the results were compared with those from Method-1 and Method-2. It was confirmed that the recombination rates from Method-1 require a correction factor to be compatible with results from Method-2 and the CFD simulation in the case of the SPARC-PAR tests.

An Analysis of Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Occupational Accidents (산업재해에 영향을 주는 사회경제적 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sunyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2022
  • This study has found the socio-economic factors that affect occupational accidents and measured the influence quantitatively. We built the panel data of 4 countries (Japan, Germany, the U.S., and the U.K.) and the analysis model counted on the fixed effect model to reflect the countries' differences. The fatal occupational injury rates in the analyzed countries had a statistically significant relationship with the level of per capita GDP, the proportion of the construction industry, the rate of male workers, annual average working hours, the rate of workers in manufacturing and construction industries, etc. The annual average working hours have a positive correlation with the fatal occupational injury rate. To reduce occupational accidents effectively, we should be monitoring and researching various factors that can affect the occurrence of occupational accidents such as worker characteristics, changing industrial structure, and changes in working hours.

Verification of SPACE Code with MSGTR-PAFS Accident Experiment (증기발생기 전열관 다중파단-피동보조급수냉각계통 사고 실험 기반 안전해석코드 SPACE 검증)

  • Nam, Kyung Ho;Kim, Tae Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2020
  • The Korean nuclear industry developed the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis Code for nuclear power plants) code and this code adpots two-phase flows, two-fluid, three-field models which are comprised of gas, continuous liquid and droplet fields and has a capability to simulate three-dimensional model. According to the revised law by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) in Korea, the multiple failure accidents that must be considered for accident management plan of nuclear power plant was determined based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Generally, to improve the reliability of the calculation results of a safety analysis code, verification work for separate and integral effect experiments is required. In this reason, the goal of this work is to verify calculation capability of SPACE code for multiple failure accident. For this purpose, it was selected the experiment which was conducted to simulate a Multiple Steam Generator Tube Rupture(MSGTR) accident with Passive Auxiliary Feedwater System(PAFS) operation by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and focused that the comparison between the experiment results and code calculation results to verify the performance of the SPACE code. The MSGR accident has a unique feature of the penetration of the barrier between the Reactor Coolant System (RCS) and the secondary system resulting from multiple failure of steam generator U-tubes. The PAFS is one of the advanced safety features with passive cooling system to replace a conventional active auxiliary feedwater system. This system is passively capable of condensing steam generated in steam generator and feeding the condensed water to the steam generator by gravity. As the results of overall system transient response using SPACE code showed similar trends with the experimental results such as the system pressure, mass flow rate, and collapsed water level in component. In conclusion, it could be concluded that the SPACE code has sufficient capability to simulate a MSGTR accident.

Deep Learning-based Real-time Traffic Accident Type and Fault Information Provision Service (딥러닝 기반 실시간 교통사고 유형 및 과실 정보 제공 서비스)

  • Kim, Geunmo;Cho, Jinsung;Kim, Sungmin;Beak, Seunghwan;Ryu, Seunghoon;Koh, Jaejong;Kim, Bongjae
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2021
  • Determining the percentage of negligence between the parties in the event of road traffic accidents is a significant problem. In order to provide users with more accurate criteria for determining the percentage of negligence, several companies are providing services. However, services currently available are limited to immediate use at the scene of an accident. Generally, the service that determines the percentage of negligence can be used after all accident handling procedures have been completed. This paper provides a real-time traffic accident type and fault rate information provision service utilizing a deep learning-based predictive model to overcome these limitations. Users can immediately identify accident types and fault information by taking pictures at the accident site and check actual precedents of the same accident type. Users will be able to use the service to more accurately and reliably determine the percentage of negligence and handle incidents.

The Analysis of Factors affecting Expressway Accident Involving Human Injuries using Logit Model (로짓모형을 활용한 고속도로 인적피해에 영향을 주는 요인분석)

  • Seo, Im-Ki;Lee, Ki-Young;Lee, Seong-Kwan;Park, Je-Jin
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.102-111
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    • 2012
  • Expresway traffic accident is fatal accident by high speed, especially human injury is a great social issue. This paper aims to identify characteristic differences of highway accidents that involve human injuries or not. To analysis the elements that affect the two types of accidents used the logistic regression model. The analysis showed that human injury accident rate is increased in case of straight road, flat, or cut-slope areas, barriers, male driver, and older driver. These results provide the ground for actions to counter the problems. By discovering factors for accidents leading to fatality, this study can provide important implications for authorities that establish highway safety measures and policies in preventing human injuries or deaths from car accidents.

Quantitative Analysis of Safety Improvement on Smart Roads (스마트도로 안전성 향상 효과의 정량화 연구)

  • Chang, Hyun-Ho;Baek, Seung-Kirl;Oh, Sung-Ho;Kim, Ho-Jeung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2011
  • Intelligent transport services on smart roads tend to have a problem at the stage of benefit-cost analysis that can not secure economic feasibility of the new services which increase early investment cost on building its infrastructure. It is expected that the number of road accidents, 'Incident/Accident', will decline through various safety services using intelligent safety facilities, intelligent transport management and so on, and that traffic congestion will also decrease. The effect of traffic congestion reduction could be the benefit by safety improvement, however current investment-analysis process in Korea does not appropriate it as a benefit. This study estimated road blocking time with 'Incident/Accident' classification and highway accident data of past three years. It also developed a generalized model by a regression analysis with a microscopical simulation. Furthermore, it suggested necessary units on quantitative analysis in order to make the developed model applicable to investment evaluation. As a result of applying the developed model to Smart-Highway Project, it showed that total safety improvement benefit is about 139 billion dollars over 30 years when it is supposed that accident decreasing rate by smart safety facilities is 10%.

Implicit Treatment of Technical Specification and Thermal Hydraulic Parameter Uncertainties in Gaussian Process Model to Estimate Safety Margin

  • Fynan, Douglas A.;Ahn, Kwang-Il
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.684-701
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    • 2016
  • The Gaussian process model (GPM) is a flexible surrogate model that can be used for nonparametric regression for multivariate problems. A unique feature of the GPM is that a prediction variance is automatically provided with the regression function. In this paper, we estimate the safety margin of a nuclear power plant by performing regression on the output of best-estimate simulations of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident with sampling of safety system configuration, sequence timing, technical specifications, and thermal hydraulic parameter uncertainties. The key aspect of our approach is that the GPM regression is only performed on the dominant input variables, the safety injection flow rate and the delay time for AC powered pumps to start representing sequence timing uncertainty, providing a predictive model for the peak clad temperature during a reflood phase. Other uncertainties are interpreted as contributors to the measurement noise of the code output and are implicitly treated in the GPM in the noise variance term, providing local uncertainty bounds for the peak clad temperature. We discuss the applicability of the foregoing method to reduce the use of conservative assumptions in best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) and Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) success criteria definitions while dealing with a large number of uncertainties.

The Development of Fuzzy to Decide System Failure Rate (시스템 고장률 결정을 위한 Fuzzy Model)

  • 김병석;김정한
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.91-94
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    • 1993
  • The main purpose of this study was to develop fuzzy models in order to decide system failure rate in industrial accident prevention. The purposed linguistic approach uses the Zadeh's concept of a linguistic variable with value which are not number. The problem of measurement Is the assignment of numbers to reprresnt properties of the involved events, object, or situation. Thus, in this study, part standard compatibility function was used.

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