• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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Traffic Accident Model of Urban Rotary and Roundabout by Type of Collision based on Land Use (토지이용에 따른 충돌 유형별 도시부 로터리 및 회전교차로 사고모형)

  • Lee, Min Yeong;Kim, Tae Yang;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2017
  • This paper deals with the traffic factors related to the collisions of circular intersections. The purpose of this study is to develop traffic accident models by type of collision based on land use. In pursuing the above, the traffic accident data from 2010 to 2014 were collected from the "Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS)" data set of the Road Traffic Authority. A multiple regression model was utilized in this study to develop the traffic accident models by type of collision. 17 explanatory variables such as geometry and traffic volume factors were used. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypothesis that the type of land use does not affect the number of accidents by type of collision is rejected. Second, 10 accident models by type of collision based on land use are developed, which are all statistically significant. Finally, the ADT, inscribed circle diameter, bicycle lane, area of central island, number of speed hump, circulatory roadway width, splitter island, area of circulatory roadway, mean number of entry lane and mean width of entry lane are analyzed to see how they affect accident by type of accident based on land use.

Assessment of the severe accident code MIDAC based on FROMA, QUENCH-06&16 experiments

  • Wu, Shihao;Zhang, Yapei;Wang, Dong;Tian, Wenxi;Qiu, Suizheng;Su, G.H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.579-588
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    • 2022
  • In order to meet the needs of domestic reactor severe accident analysis program, a MIDAC (Module Invessel Degraded severe accident Analysis Code) is developed and maintained by Xi'an Jiaotong University. As the accuracy of the calculation results of the analysis program is of great significance for the formulation of severe accident mitigation measures, the article select three experiments to evaluate the updated severe accident models of MIDAC. Among them, QUENCH-06 is the international standard No.45, QUENCH-16 is a test for the analysis of air oxidation, and FROMA is an out-of-pile fuel rod melting experiment recently carried out by Xi'an Jiaotong University. The heating and melting model with lumped parameter method and the steam oxidation model with Cathcart-Pawel and Volchek-Zvonarev correlations combination in MIDAC could better meet the needs of severe accident analysis. Although the influence of nitrogen still need to be further improved, the air oxidation model with NUREG still has the ability to provide guiding significance for engineering practice.

Safety Analysis using bayesian approach (베이지안 기법을 이용한 안전사고 예측기법)

  • Yang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2007
  • We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.

A Study on Development of Fire Accident Analysis System Using Classification Model and Database (화재사고 분류모델 및 데이터베이스를 이용한 화재사고 분석시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim In-Tae;Heo Jaeseok;Song Hee-Oeul;Ko Jae-Wook;Kim In-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 1998
  • In order to establish detailed plans for fire protection and reduce the possible fire accidents in the future, collection of domestic and foreign fire accident cases and fundamental analysis are very important. In this study the classification model for fire accidents was developed and the direction to a new model was suggested by comparison ours with the accidents classification model of NFPA of United States of America and Japan. A new developed PC-based database program for fire accidents (FADBS) was used to analyse fire accidents easily and efficiently.

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The Prediction of Industrial Accident Rate in Korea: A Time Series Analysis (시계열분석을 통한 산업재해율 예측)

  • Choi, Eunsuk;Jeon, Gyeong-Suk;Lee, Won Kee;Kim, Young Sun
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.

A Study on the Accident Model from the System Safety Perspective - Focused on Aircraft Accident - (시스템안전 관점에서의 사고 모형 고찰 - 항공기 사고를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dae Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2020
  • Many organizations apply reactive safety management to prevent the same or similar types of accidents by through investigation and analysis of the accident cases. Although research on investigation techniques has contributed a lot to the objective results of safety accidents and the preparation of countermeasures, many accident investigation techniques currently in use treat accidents from a linear perspective, revealing limitations in reflecting current systems dominated by complexity and uncertainty. In order to overcome these limitations, this study will review recent studies and concepts from a system safety perspective and predict future research trends through a case analysis of aviation accident. The models used in the analysis are STAMP, HFACS, and FRAM, and the characteristics of each technique are presented so that analysts who perform related tasks in the field can refer to them.

An Analysis of Human Factor and Error for Human Error of the Semiconductor Industry (반도체 산업에서의 인적오류에 대한 인적요인과 과오에 대한 분석)

  • Yun, Yong-Gu;Park, Beom
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2007
  • Through so that accident of semiconductor industry deduces unsafe factor of the person center on unsafe behaviour that incident history and questionnaire and I made starting point that extract very important factor. It served as a momentum that make up base that analyzes factors that happen based on factor that extract factor cause classification for the first factor, the second factor and the third factor and presents model of human error. Factor for whole defines factor component for human factor and to cause analysis 1 stage in human factor and step that wish to do access of problem and it do analysis cause of data of 1 step. Also, see significant difference that analyzes interrelation between leading persons about human mistake in semiconductor industry and connect interrelation of mistake by this. Continuously, dictionary road map to human error theoretical background to basis traditional accidental cause model and modern accident cause model and leading persons. I wish to present model and new model in semiconductor industry by backbone that leading persons of existing scholars who present model of existent human error deduce relation. Finally, I wish to deduce backbone of model of pre-suppression about accident leading person of the person center.

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Development and validation of the lead-bismuth cooled reactor system code based on a fully implicit homogeneous flow model

  • Ge Li;Wang Jingxin;Fan Kun;Zhang Jie;Shan Jianqiang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.1213-1224
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    • 2024
  • The liquid lead-bismuth cooled fast reactor has been in a single-phase, low-pressure, and high-temperature state for a long time during operation. Considering the requirement of calculation efficiency for long-term transient accident calculation, based on a homogeneous hydrodynamic model, one-dimensional heat conduction model, coolant flow and heat transfer model, neutron kinetics model, coolant and material properties model, this study used the fully implicit difference scheme algorithm of the convection-diffusion term to solve the basic conservation equation, to develop the transient analysis program NUSOL-LMR 2.0 for the lead-bismuth fast reactor system. The steady-state and typical design basis accidents (including reactivity introduction, loss of flow caused by main pump idling, excessive cooling, and plant power outage accidents) for the ABR have been analyzed. The results are compared with the international system analysis software ATHENA. The results indicate that the developed program can stably, accurately, and efficiently predict the transient accident response and safety characteristics of the lead-bismuth fast reactor system.

Development and Application of Accident Prediction Model for Railroad At-Grade Crossings (철도건널목의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 조성훈;서선덕
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.429-434
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    • 2001
  • Rail crossings pose special safety concerns for modern railroad operation with faster trains. More than ninety percent of train operation-related accidents occurs on at-grade crossings. Surest countermeasure for this safety hazard is to eliminate at-grade crossings by constructing over/under pass or by closing them. These eliminations usually require substantial amount of investment and/or heavy public protest from those affected by them. Thorough and objective analysis are usually required, and valid accident prediction models are essential to the process. This paper developed an accident prediction model for Korean at-grade crossings. The model utilized many important factors such as guide personnel, highway traffic, train frequency, train sight distance, and number of tracks. Developed model was validated with actual accident data.

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A Study on Forecasting Risk of Gas Accident using Weather Data (기상 데이터를 활용한 가스사고위험 예보에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jeong Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2018
  • While accident data are used to show alertness to accidents or to review similar cases, the analysis of nature of accident data its association with surrounding environment is very insufficient. Therefore, it is very necessary to demonstrate the possibility of an accident for a particular region by developing analysis techniques with the related accident data. The purpose of this study is to develop an analysis model and implement a system that produces regional accident probability based on historical weather information data and accident and reporting data. In other words, the system is designed and developed to create models by k-NN and decision tree algorithms with optional user-environment variables based on the probability between weather and accidents about many particular region of Korea. In the future, the models developed in this study are intended to be used to analyze and calculate the risk of a more narrow area.