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Safety Analysis using bayesian approach  

Yang, Hee-Joong (Dept. of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Cheongju University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science / v.9, no.5, 2007 , pp. 1-5 More about this Journal
Abstract
We construct the procedure to predict safety accidents following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of accidents. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for accident occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe accidents are assumed and likelihood of number of accidents in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We also points out the advantages of the bayesian approach that estimates the whole distribution of accident rate over the classical point estimation.
Keywords
Safety Accident; Bayesian Forecasting; Influence Diagram;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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