• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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Analytical Model in Pedestrian Accident by Van Type Vehicle (Van 형 차량의 보행자 충돌 사고 해석 모델)

  • Ahn, Seung-Mo;Kang, Dae-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.115-120
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    • 2008
  • The fatalities of pedestrian accounted for about 40.0% of all fatalities in Korea (2005 year). In pedestrian involved accident, the most important data to inspect accident is throw distance of pedestrian. The throw distance of pedestrian can be influenced by many variables, such as vehicular frontal shape, vehicular impact speed, the offset of impact point, the height of pedestrian, and road condition. The trajectory of pedestrian after collision can be influenced by vehicular frontal shape classified into sedan type, box type, SUV type and van type. Many studies have been done about pedestrian accident with passenger car model and bus model for simple factors. But the study of pedestrian accident by van type vehicle was much insufficient, and even that the influence of multiple factors such as the offset of impact point was neglected. In this paper, a series of pedestrian kinetic simulation were conducted to inspect relationship between throw distance and multiple factors with using PC-CRASH s/w, a kinetic analysis program for a traffic accident for van type. By based on the simulation results, multi-variate regression was conducted, and regression equation was presented.

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Analysis of Accident Factors at Arterial Roads Using Tobit Model (Tobit 모형을 이용한 간선도로 사고 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung Hwan;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : The intents of the study are to identify the accident factors and to demonstrate the potentials of tobit model as a tool to study the number of accidents on arterial roads segments. METHODS : This paper uses a tobit regression as a methodology to analyze the factors affecting the number of accidents. In pursuing the above goal, this study gives particular attentions to analyzing the data of 2,446 accidents (1,610 in major arterial roads and 836 in minor arterial roads) occurred on arterial roads in 2007 to 2010. RESULTS : First, 3 accident models which were classified by total arterial roads, major arterial roads and minor arterial roads, and were all statistically significant were developed. Second, the exclusive right-turn lane as common variable, and the number of accident, traffic volume, number of lanes, link length, rate of median, number of entrances, number of pedestrian crossings, number of curves, number of bus stops and exclusive left-turn as specific variables of the models were selected. Finally, the paired sample t-test could not be rejected the null hypotheses of three types of models. CONCLUSIONS : Using data from vehicle accidents on arterial roads, the estimation results show that many factors related to roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect to the number of accidents.

The Analysis of Older Driver's Traffic Accident Characteristic at Express-way using Logit model (로짓모델을 이용한 고령운전자 고속도로 교통사고 특성 분석 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Tae;Kim, Young-Suck;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accident by aging drivers is expected to be on the rise rapidly as the number of aging drivers is rising along with the aging trend being progressed. In this study, traffic accident features depending on the classification of aging population and non aging one was evaluated. As a result of this evaluation, effect factors influencing over the aging population was found to be expressed differently from that of the non aging one. Odds ratio between the aging population and non aging one was evaluated through logit model and a model with potential accident probability of the aged drivers was developed. Accident risk of the aged drivers under the condition of curved road, cutting section and moistured road was revealed to be higher than that of the non aging population.

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Nuclear reactor vessel water level prediction during severe accidents using deep neural networks

  • Koo, Young Do;An, Ye Ji;Kim, Chang-Hwoi;Na, Man Gyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.723-730
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    • 2019
  • Acquiring instrumentation signals generated from nuclear power plants (NPPs) is essential to maintain nuclear reactor integrity or to mitigate an abnormal state under normal operating conditions or severe accident circumstances. However, various safety-critical instrumentation signals from NPPs cannot be accurately measured on account of instrument degradation or failure under severe accident circumstances. Reactor vessel (RV) water level, which is an accident monitoring variable directly related to reactor cooling and prevention of core exposure, was predicted by applying a few signals to deep neural networks (DNNs) during severe accidents in NPPs. Signal data were obtained by simulating the postulated loss-of-coolant accidents at hot- and cold-legs, and steam generator tube rupture using modular accident analysis program code as actual NPP accidents rarely happen. To optimize the DNN model for RV water level prediction, a genetic algorithm was used to select the numbers of hidden layers and nodes. The proposed DNN model had a small root mean square error for RV water level prediction, and performed better than the cascaded fuzzy neural network model of the previous study. Consequently, the DNN model is considered to perform well enough to provide supporting information on the RV water level to operators.

Urban and Rural Roundabout Accident Occurrence Models (도시 및 지방 회전교차로 사고 발생 모형)

  • Beck, Tea Hun;Lim, Jin Kang;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSES: The operational characteristics of roundabouts are generally influenced by location as well as traffic volume. The goal of this study is to develop urban and rural roundabout accident models and to discuss safety improvement guidelines based on the model. METHODS : To analyze accidents, count data models are utilized in this study. This study used accident data from 2010 to 2013 for 56 roundabouts collected from the Traffic Accident Analysis System (TASS) of Road Traffic Authority. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were developed for this study using NLOGIT 4.0. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, the hypotheses that there are distributional differences in the number of accidents and injuries/fatalities among rural and urban roundabouts were accepted. Second, Poisson and negative binomial regression accident models, which were all statistically significant, were developed. Seven independent variables, which were statistically significant, were adopted. Third, the common variable of models was evaluated to be traffic volume. CONCLUSIONS : This study developed two negative binomial roundabout accident models and suggested some accident reduction strategies. The results are expected to give some implications to the safety improvement of roundabout.

An Analysis of Multiple-Vehicle Accidents on Freeways Using Multinomial Logit Model (다항로짓모형을 이용한 고속도로 다중추돌사고 특성 분석)

  • Jeon, Hyeonmyeong;Kim, Jinhee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to analyze effects of factors on the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on freeway sections. In previous studies about traffic accident severity, the analysis of accidents involving multiple vehicles was insufficient. However, multiple-vehicle accidents are likely to cause casualties and are the main reasons increasing accident duration and social costs. In this study, the number of vehicles involved in an accident was interpreted as the result of the accident, not as the cause of the accident, and the impacts of each accident factor were analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that multiple-vehicle accidents are mainly related to following factors: nighttime, driver's faults, obstacles on the road, a downhill slope, heavy vehicles, and freeway mainline sections including tunnels and bridges.

Study on the influence of flow blockage in severe accident scenario of CAP1400 reactor

  • Pengcheng Gao;Bin Zhang ;Jishen Li ;Fan Miao ;Shaowei Tang ;Sheng Cao;Hao Yang ;Jianqiang Shan
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.999-1008
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    • 2023
  • Deformed fuel rods can cause a partial blockage of the flow area in a subchannel. Such flow blockage will influence the core coolant flow and further the core heat transfer during the reflooding phase and subsequent severe accidents. Nevertheless, most of the system analysis codes simulate the accident process based on the assumed flow blockage ratio, resulting in inconsistencies between simulated results and actual conditions. This paper aims to study the influence of flow blockage in severe accident scenario of the CAP1400 reactor. First, the flow blockage model of ISAA code is improved based on the FRTMB module. Then, the ISAA-FRTMB coupling system is adopted to model and calculate the QUENCH-LOCA-0 experiment. The correctness and validity of the flow blockage model are verified by comparing the peak cladding temperature. Finally, the DVI Line-SBLOCA accident is induced to analyze the influence of flow blockage on subsequent CAP1400 reactor core heat transfer and core degradation. From the results of the DVI Line-SBLOCA accident analysis, it can be concluded that the blockage ratio is in the range of 40%-60%, and the position of severe blockage is the same as that of cladding rupture. The blockage reduces the circulation area of the core coolant, which in turn impacts the heat exchange between the core and the coolant, leading to the early failure and collapse of some core assemblies and accelerating the core degradation process.

Development of Korean Pedestrian Accident Reconstruction Model (한국형 보행자 사고재현 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Su-Beom;Lui, Tae-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.6 s.84
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2005
  • A pedestrian accident is generally less fully understood than the 'typical' car-to-car collision. For this reason, the analysis of the pedestrian accident is, in many respects, more complicated and demanding. The purpose of this study is to identify clearly the impact point that is the main subject of struggle in pedestrian accidents. In order to develop the model, it is very significant to classify actual accident data including impact velocity. vehicle damage and injury scale of pedestrian. These data were collected from three local branches of RTSA(Road Traffic Safely Authority). The number of collected data were 34 cases and 61.7% of them were fatal accidents. In consequence of analyzing the data by statistical method, it revealed that there is correlation between impact velocity and throw distance. It, also shows that the impact velocity has strong linear correlation to vehicle damage and injury scale. Consequently, reconstruction analysis models of pedestrian accidents considering in local circumstances(such as the physical characteristics of pedestrians and vehicles) was developed However. it is difficult to apply the result of this study to all sorts of pedestrian accidents, because the actual accident data which were used to develop the model were limited. To overcome this limitation, it is necessary to develop an analysis model applicable to diverse circumstances with a wide range of pedestrian accident data on a national basis.

Comparison Analysis between the IWRAP and the ES Model in Ulsan Waterway

  • Kim, Dae-Won;Park, Jin-Soo;Park, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2011
  • According to the Marine Traffic Safety Law, revised in 2009, Marine Traffic Safety Audit is introduced to secure the safe navigation, to prevent the marine accident and to maximize the efficiency of the port. In this audit system, marine traffic safety assessment is the most important scheme because the primary purpose of the audit system is to identify potential risk elements affecting safe navigation. Even though the reliability of audit result depends on the selection of assessment models, there are no independent assessment models for Korean coastal waters and most of models used in Korea currently are developed by foreign countries. Therefore, the development of the independent assessment model for Korean coastal water is required. This study, prior to the development of independent assessment model, aims to provide a basic data by comparing two foreign assessment models in Ulsan port area with marine accident statistics data.

Analysis on Factors Affecting Traffic Accident Severity - Case Study : Arterial Included Curve Section - (교통사고심각도 영향요인 분석에 관한 연구 - 곡선부가 포함된 국도를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Jae Hong;Yun, Duk Geun;Sung, Jung Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.84-89
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    • 2013
  • The main causes of traffic accidents can be classified by 3 factors - human error, vehicle deficiency and road environmental problem and most accidents occurs not only 1 factor but combination of 2 or 3-factors. Among these factors, road environmental factor is the most important factor due to influence the behavior of cars and road users and road environmental factor affects 30% of total accidents approximately. The 5 years traffic accidents data analyzed to verify the accidents severity on Korea National Highways. In order to analyze the severity, Ordered Probit Model was used. As a independent variables of this model the number of lane, neighbor road environments, sight distance, vertical grade, lane width, shoulder width and traffic volume were used and as a dependent variables the minor injuries, serious injuries and fatalities were used. Research results shows that sight distance and lane width are identified as significant factors for the traffic accident severity and lesser sight distance and lane width shows greater traffic accident severity.