• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.119-130
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• 2018

Aerosol Optical Properties (AOPs) are retrieved using the geostationary satellite instruments such as Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), Meteorological Imager (MI), and Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) through Yonsei AErosol Retrieval algorithm (YAER). In this study, the retrieved aerosol optical depths (AOD)s from each instrument were intercompared and validated with the ground-based sunphotometer AErosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) data. As a result, the four AOD products derived from different instruments showed consistent results over land and ocean. However, AODs from MI and GOCI tend to be overestimated due to cloud contamination. According to the comparison results with AERONET, the percentage within expected errors (EE) are 36.3, 48.4, 56.6, and 68.2% for MI, GOCI, AHI-minimum reflectivity method (MRM), and AHI-estimated surface reflectance from shortwave Infrared (ESR) product, respectively. Since MI AOD is retrieved from a single visible channel, and adopts only one aerosol type by season, EE is relatively lower than other products. On the other hand, the AHI ESR is more accurate than the minimum reflectance method as used by GOCI, MI, and AHI MRM method in May and June when the vegetation is relatively abundant. These results are explained by the RMSE and the EE for each AERONET site. The ESR method result show to be better than the other satellite product in terms of EE for 15 out of 22 sites used for validation, and they are better than the other product for 13 sites in terms of RMSE. In addition, the error in observation time in each product is found by using characteristics of geostationary satellites. The absolute median biases at 00 to 06 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) are 0.05, 0.09, 0.18, 0.18, 0.14, 0.09, and 0.10. The absolute median bias by observation time has appeared in MI and the only 00 UTC appeared in GOCI.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.87-95
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• 2016

This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.53-94
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• 2017

Thai political regime is said to have returned to bureaucratic polity or semi-democracy. However this kind of perspective do not find the political interference of Privy Council which is a body of Monarch of Thailand. Therefore this paper tries to discover the unique traits of Thai way of constitutional monarchy which can be defined as the modern form of absolute monarchy. In short Thai way of constitutional monarchy based on network politics is contradictary to the normal constitutional monarchy whose norm is "the king reigns, but does not rule." This means Thai king is in politics not above politics in reality. Thai monarchy has interfered in diversive way in terms of mediating political conflicts and protecting the monarchy as a institution. In this process the king has been worshiped as demigod who practises the Buddhist doctrine and the centre of national integration. Even after the 6 Ocober 1976 massacre which the palace involved King Bhumibol Adulyadej's sacred position was not challenged. Rather $l{\grave{e}}se-majest{\acute{e}}$ law became more draconian for status quo. Since then $l{\grave{e}}se-majest{\acute{e}}$ was cited as one of the major rationale for the military coup. The 2006 coup which was triggered by the clash between network Monarchy and bourgeois polity based on Thakin network marked a surge of the $l{\grave{e}}se-majest{\acute{e}}$ cases. The 2014 coup had consecutively increased the number of $l{\grave{e}}se-majest{\acute{e}}$ prisoners. It can be said that the modern form of absolute monarchy in Thailand including bureaucratic polity, semi-democracy and democracy is bounded by $l{\grave{e}}se-majest{\acute{e}}$ law which network monarchy players such as military, intellectuals, Democrat Party and even some civil society groups support.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.19
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• pp.105-125
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• 1992

The research, aiming an automatic pattern design of Korean Costume by utilizing CAD system, tried Grading, Seaming and Marking with a theme of girl's color-strip blouse & skirt. The content & conclusion of the research can be outlined as follows; 1) As we reviewed the current situation of Korean costume which becomes more likely celebrational or festival costume, while the demand of it is getting increase, it's being dealt mostly as ready-made dresses with different qualities & designs. Especially childrens ready-made ones were highly demanded to be picked up as the theme. 2) For the original drawing of children's color-strip blouse & skirt, Kyung-Ja Park's drawing method was used here, and for the substitute of particular body parts absolute size, Joo-Won Lee's standard size chart from a size-study by ages. 3) To work with CAD system we had input master pattern, drawn for age 5 as basic size, then graded six step-sizes for 1-11 years old. For add-subtract of particular body parts size, we graded through computing the standard variation among items to get the pattern developed into ready-made standard size, we can make precise plotting by grading wanted size very rapidly if we correct the rule of changed items different from standard size to make utilization possible enough with easy order method of ready-made Korean Dress. 4) We produced Marker after attaching a margin to seam accordingly by parts for each pattern using P/D/S to mark, In mass gament-cutting, the loss of time and material can minimized. In this research the apparel CAD system which has been utilized and only be western fashion industry was introduced for the design of ready-made Korean costume and utilized it in Grading, Marking which are critical steps to improve productivity and have reported the result in the research. Thus we expect that less cost, improved productivity and better quality with minimized loss of material from marking as well as from prompt and precise size-drawing. Furthermore the utilization of CAD system is considered as an effective one in terms of the research & the development to remove effective one in terms of the research & the development to remove irrational elements in the design and production process of Korean costume as well as in terms of the study of Korean Costume development through creative works of Korean Costume.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.96-111
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• 2009

This essay is a study aimed at rationality and utility of two terms, 'Nongak' and 'Pungmul'. I examined how the terms have been today, by diachrony based on review of historical material. I tried to secure the historical context and basis about my argument, quoting many historical material from Korea Dynasty period, Joseon Dynasty period and the colonial period of the imperial Japan during 1910-45 to today. I examined many objective arguments about the 'Nongak', and pointed out the mistake of the objective argument. And I examined the means and rationality of the terms, 'Nongak', 'Pungmul', 'Pungmulgut', 'Pungmulnory'. The 'Pungmul' has been used as the means of instrument for a long time from Joseon Dynasty period. It is only rational using as the means of instrument but as the means of Performance of Nongak considering the historical legitimacy. The 'Pungmul' is Sino-Korean word, not korean native letter. The Pungmulgut means the 'ritual by Pungmul', so it can be recognized the rationality, but have a weak point that it is a neologism being made by some intellectuals in 1980s. In addition to, it is not used im performing field. 'Pungmulnory' has a limit to call the Nongak as a synthetic art. 'Nongak'means a synthetic art that farmers who were absolute majority in agrarian society of Korea have made and developed. So I conclude that 'Nongak'is the best rational term.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.19-27
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• 2015

Technologies of wind power generation for development of alternative energy technology have been accumulated over the past 20 years. Wind power generation is environmentally friendly and economical because it uses the wind blowing in nature as energy resource. In order to operate wind power generation efficiently, it is necessary to accurately predict wind speed changing every moment in nature. It is important not only averagely how well to predict wind speed but also to minimize the largest absolute error between real value and prediction value of wind speed. In terms of generation operating plan, minimizing the largest absolute error plays an important role for building flexible generation operating plan because the difference between predicting power and real power causes economic loss. In this paper, we propose a method of wind speed prediction using numeric prediction algorithm-based wind speed forecast model made to analyze the wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration and pattern value for considering seasonal property of wind speed as well as changing trend of past wind speed. The wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration is the forecast in respect to comparatively wide area including wind generation farm. But it contributes considerably to make accuracy of wind speed prediction high. Also, the experimental results demonstrate that as the rate of wind is analyzed in more detail, the greater accuracy will be obtained.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.8 s.169
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• pp.677-690
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• 2006

The LH-OAT (Latin Hypercube One factor At a Time) method for sensitivity analysis and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution at University of Arizona) optimization method were applied for the automatic calibration of SWAT model in Bocheong-cheon watershed. The LH-OAT method which combines the advantages of global and local sensitivity analysis effectively identified the sensitivity ranking for the parameters of SWAT model over feasible parameter space. Use of this information allows us to select the calibrated parameters for the automatic calibration process. The performance of the automatic calibration of SWAT model using SCE-UA method depends on the length of calibration period, the number of calibrated parameters, and the selection of statistical error criteria. The performance of SWAT model in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSEF (Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency), RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error), and NMSE (Normalized Mean Square Error) becomes better as the calibration period and the number of parameters defined in the automatic calibration process increase. However, NAE (Normalized Average Error) and SDR (Standard Deviation Ratio) were not improved although the calibration period and the number of calibrated parameters are increased. The result suggests that there are complex interactions among the calibration data, the calibrated parameters, and the model error criteria and a need for further study to understand these complex interactions at various representative watersheds.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.4 s.82
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• pp.71-79
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• 2005

Existing arterial link travel time estimation methods relying on either aggregate point-based or individual section-based traffic data have their inherent limitations. This paper demonstrates the utility of data fusion for improving arterial link travel time estimation. If the data describe traffic conditions, an operator wants to know whether the situations are going better or worse. In addition, some traffic information providing strategies require predictions of what would be the values of traffic variables during the next time period. In such situations, it is necessary to use a prediction algorithm in order to extract the average trends in traffic data or make short-term predictions of the control variables. In this research. a multi-step ahead prediction algorithm using Data fusion was developed to predict a link travel time. The algorithm performance were tested in terms of performance measures such as MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MARE(mean absolute relative error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), EC(equality coefficient). The performance of the proposed algorithm was superior to the current one-step ahead prediction algorithm.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.1-9
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• 2016

PURPOSES : This study aims to show the difference of the binder aging level in the hot-mix asphalt (HMA) mixture after short-term aging (SA) under different aging conditions, such as mixture temperature and duration in hour. METHODS : Three SA times (i.e., 1 h, 2 h, and 4 h) at two temperatures (i.e., $160^{\circ}C$ and $180^{\circ}C$) were used for the normal mixtures prepared using a PG64-22 asphalt. The field long-term aging (LA) was simulated by applying the same LA procedure (65 h at $110^{\circ}C$) to all compacted specimens, prepared at the air void of 7% using each SA-treated mixture, in a convection oven. The binder aging level was measured in terms of large molecular size by gel-permeation chromatography (GPC) from the mixture and the absolute viscosity (AV) from the recovered binder. The aging levels were evaluated using those two properties after SA and LA, and then compared based on the normal SA (NSA) mixture (1 h at $160^{\circ}C$). The service life reduction caused by SA in various conditions was estimated based on the aging level of the field cores from different locations in various service lives. RESULTS : The results of the laboratory evaluation indicated that the binder of the mixture, which was treated at longer SA time and higher temperature, showed a significantly higher aging level than the NSA mixture. The binder aging level from a longer time, such as 2 h and 4 h SA, or at a higher temperature ($180^{\circ}C$), were estimated to be similar to that of the mixtures, which had already been in field service for several years. CONCLUSIONS : The HMA mixture should be produced at a moderate temperature, such as $160^{\circ}C$, and placed within a limited hauling and queuing time to avoid a significant short-term aging of the binder before placement in the field pavement. The SA for a longer time at a higher temperature than the NSA condition was found to be detrimental to the service life of the asphalt pavement.