• Title/Summary/Keyword: a error model

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Application of Jackknife Method for Determination of Representative Probability Distribution of Annual Maximum Rainfall (연최대강우량의 대표확률분포형 결정을 위한 Jackknife기법의 적용)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon;Lee, Sang-Won;Kwak, Chang-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.10
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    • pp.857-866
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    • 2009
  • In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.

Commissioning of a micro-MLC (mMLC) for Stereotactic Radiosurgery (방사선수술용 4뱅크 마이크로 다엽콜리메이터의 인수 검사)

  • Jeong, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Kyo-Chul;Kim, Jeung-Kee;Kim, Soo-Kon;Moon, Sun-Rock;Lee, Kang-Kyoo
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2009
  • The 4 bank mico-MLC (mMLC; Acculeaf, Direx, Isral) has been commissioned for clinical use of linac based stereotactic radiosurgery. The geometrical parameters to control the leaves were determined and comparisons between measured and calculated by the calculation model were performed in terms of absolute dose (cGy/100 MU). As a result of evaluating calculated dose for various field sizes and depths of 5 and 10 cm in water in the geometric condition of fixed SSD (source to surface distance) and fixed SCD (source to chamber distance), most of differences were within 1% for 6 MV and 15 MV x-rays. The penumbral widths at the isocenter were approximately evaluated to 0.29~0.43 cm depending on the field size for 6 MV and 0.36~0.51 cm for 15 MV x-rays. The average transmission and leakage for 6 MV and 15 MV x-rays were 6.6% and 7.4% respectively in single level of leaves fully closed. In case of dual level of leaves fully closed the measured transmission is approximately 0.5% for both 6 MV and 15 MV x-rays. Through the commissiong procedure we could verify the dose characteristics of mMLC and approximately evaluate the error ranges for treatment planning system.

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A study on 3-D indoor localization based on visible-light communication considering the inclination and azimuth of the receiver (수신기의 기울기 및 방위를 고려한 가시광 통신기반 3차원 실내 위치인식에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Yeol;Zin, Hyeon-Cheol;Kim, Jong-Chan;Noh, Duck-Soo;Seo, Dong-Hoan
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.647-654
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    • 2016
  • Indoor localization based on visible-light communication using the received signal strength intensity (RSSI) has been widely studied because of its high accuracy compared with other wireless localization methods. However, because the RSSI can vary according to the inclination and azimuth of the receiver, a large error can occur, even at the same position. In this paper, we propose a visible-light communication-based 3-D indoor positioning algorithm using the Gauss-Newton technique in order to reduce the errors caused by the change in the inclination of the receiver. The proposed system reduces the amount of computations by selecting the initial position of the receiver through the linear least-squares method (LSM), which is applied to the RSSIs, and improves the position accuracy by applying the Gauss-Newton technique to the 3-D nonlinear model that contains the RSSIs acquired by the changes in the azimuth and inclination of the receiver. In order to verify the validity of the proposed algorithm in an indoor space with dimensions of $6{\times}6{\times}3m$ where 16 LED lights are installed, we compare and analyze the errors of the conventional linear LSM-based trilateration technique and the proposed algorithm according to the changes in the inclination and azimuth of the receiver. The experimental results show that the location accuracy of the proposed algorithm is improved by 82.5% compared to the conventional LSM-based trilateration technique.

The Determinants of New Supply in the Seoul Office Market and their Dynamic Relationship (서울 오피스 신규 공급 결정요인과 동태적 관계분석)

  • Yang, Hye-Seon;Kang, Chang-Deok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 2017
  • The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

Improvement of COMS land surface temperature retrieval algorithm by considering diurnal variation of air temperature (기온의 일 변동을 고려한 COMS 지표면온도 산출 알고리즘 개선)

  • Choi, Youn-Young;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.435-452
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    • 2016
  • Land Surface Temperature (LST) has been operationally retrieved from the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) data by the spilt-window method (CSW_v2.0) developed by Cho et al. (2015). Although the CSW_v2.0 retrieved the LST with a reasonable quality compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data, it showed a relatively poor performance for the strong inversion and lapse rate conditions. To solve this problem, the LST retrieval algorithm (CSW_v2.0) was updated using the simulation results of radiative transfer model (MODTRAN 4.0) by considering the diurnal variations of air temperature. In general, the upgraded version, CSW_v3.0 showed a similar correlation coefficient between the prescribed LSTs and retrieved LSTs (0.99), the relatively smaller bias (from -0.03 K to-0.012 K) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (from 1.39 K to 1.138 K). Particularly, CSW_v3.0 improved the systematic problems of CSW_v2.0 that were encountered when temperature differences between LST and air temperature are very large and/or small (inversion layers and superadiabatic lapse rates), and when the brightness temperature differences and surface emissivity differences were large. The bias and RMSE of CSW_v2.0 were reduced by 10-30% in CSW_v3.0. The indirect validation results using the MODIS LST data showed that CSW_3.0 improved the retrieval accuracy of LST in terms of bias (from -0.629 K to -0.049 K) and RMSE (from 2.537 K to 2.502 K) compared to the CSW_v2.0.

Aerodynamic Characteristics Analysis of Small Two-Stage Turbo Blower Using CFD (CFD를 이용한 소형 2단 터보블로워의 공력해석)

  • Seo, Seungjae;Ryu, Minhyoung;Cho, Leesang;Cho, Jinsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.326-335
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    • 2014
  • Aerodynamic characteristics of the small two-stage turbo blower were investigated using commercial CFD tool(ANSYS CFX Ver. 14.5) in this paper. Turbo blower, which is a centrifugal type of turbomachinery, is used in various industries. It is used for application that required high static pressure rising at relatively small volumetric flow rate. In order to understand the mechanism of static pressure rising, the aerodynamic characteristics of the small two-stage turbo blower are analyzed at high rotating speed in this study. The k-${\omega}$ SST turbulence model, which is good at prediction of adverse pressure gradient flows, was applied. The CFD results of the turbo blower are validated by performance test. The static pressure rising of the turbo blower is nonlinearly increased over the first stage and the second stage. The secondary flow occurred at guide vanes, between the casing and the first impeller shroud, and the bottom of the impeller disk. As a result, It is required that whole fluid area is analyzed to predict aerodynamic characteristics of small two-stage turbo blower. and the result should be selected with considering for error from experiment and CFD.

Yearly Estimation of Rice Growth and Bacterial Leaf Blight Inoculation Effect Using UAV Imagery (무인비행체 영상 기반 연차 간 벼 생육 및 흰잎마름병 병해 추정)

  • Lee, KyungDo;Kim, SangMin;An, HoYong;Park, ChanWon;Hong, SukYoung;So, KyuHo;Na, SangIl
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a technology for estimating rice growth and damage effect according to bacterial leaf blight using UAV multi-spectral imagery. For this purpose, we analyzed the change of aerial images, rice growth factors (plant height, dry weight, LAI) and disease effects according to disease occurrence by using UAV images for 3 rice varieties (Milyang23, Sindongjin-byeo, Saenuri-byeo) from 2017 to 2018. The correlation between vegetation index and rice growth factor during vegetative growth period showed a high value of 0.9 or higher each year. As a result of applying the growth estimation model built in 2017 to 2018, the plant height of Milyang23 showed good error withing 10%. However, it is considered that studies to improve the accuracy of other items are needed. Fixed wing unmanned aerial photographs were also possible to estimate the damage area after 2 to 4 weeks from inoculation. Although sensing data in the multi-spectral (Blue, Green, Red, NIR) band have limitations in early diagnosis of rice disease, for rice varieties such as Milyang23 and Sindongjin-byeo, it was possible to construct the equation of infected leaf area ratio and rice yield estimation using UAV imagery in early and mid-September with high correlation coefficient of 0.8 to 0.9. The results of this study are expected to be useful for farming and policy support related to estimating rice growth, rice plant disease and yield change based on UAV images.

Simulation of Agricultural Water Supply Considering Yearly Variation of Irrigation Efficiency (연단위 관개효율 변화를 고려한 관개지구 용수 공급량 모의)

  • Song, Jung Hun;Song, Inhong;Kim, Jin Taek;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.425-438
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate simulation of agricultural water supply considering yearly variation of irrigation efficiency. The water supply data of the Idong reservoir from 2001 through 2009 was collected and used for this study. Total 6 parameters including irrigation efficiency (Es), drainage outlet height, and infiltration, were used for sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation. Among the parameters, the Es appeared to be the most sensitivity parameter. The Es was calibrated on a yearly basis considering sensitivity and time-varying characteristic, while other parameters were set to fixed values. The statistics of percent bias (PBLAS), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and root means square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) for a monthly step were 2.7%, 0.93, and 0.26 for the calibration, and 3.9%, 0.89, and 0.32 for the validation, correspondently. The results showed a good agreement with the observations. This implies that the modeling only with appropriate parameter values, apart from modeling approaches, can simulate the real supply operation reasonably well. However, the simulations with uncalibrated parameters from previous studies produced poor results. Thus, it is important to use calibrated values, and especially, we suggest the Es's yearly calibration for simulating agricultural water supply.

A Study on the History Matching and Assessment of Production Performance in a Shale Gas Reservoir Considering Influenced Parameter for Productivity (생산 영향인자를 고려한 셰일가스 저류층의 이력검증 및 생산성 평가 연구)

  • Park, Kyung-Sick;Lee, Jeong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.62-72
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    • 2020
  • This study presents a methodology of history matching to evaluate the productivity of shale gas reservoir with high reliability and predict future production rate in the Horn-River basin, Canada. Sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the effect of physical properties of shale gas reservoir on productivity. Based on the results, reservoir properties were classified into 4 cases and history matching were performed considering the classified 4 cases as objective function. The blind test was conducted using additional field production data for 3 years after the history matching period. The error of gas production rate in Case 1(all reservoir parameters), Case 2(influenced parameters for productivity), Case 3(controllable parameters), and Case 4(uncontrollable parameters) were 7.67%, 7.13%, 17.54%, and 10.04%, respectively. This means that it seems to be effective to consider all reservoir parameters in early period for 4 years but Case 2 which considered influenced parameters for productivity shows the highest reliability in predicting future production. The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of production well predicted using the Case 2 model was estimated to be 17.24 Bcf by December 2030 and the recovery factor compared to original gas in place (OGIP) was 32.2%.

A Study of IT Outsourcing Model for a Public Institution (공공기관의 IT 아웃소싱 모델 연구)

  • Oh, Yeon-Chil;Park, So-Ah;Lee, Young-Seok;Yang, Hae-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.1723-1730
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    • 2008
  • The national IT outsourcing is actively achieved centering around the manufacturing enterprise and financial institution. The If outsourcing of the public institution is generalized. The IT development and operation management task are the field in which first an outsourcing is introduced due to a factor including the technological change, the efper increase in demand, and etc. Particularly, the core business of the public institution is the public service. Therefore, the core business of the public institution can concentrate on the core business and by drastically outsourcing the etc task ran improve an efficiency. Therefore, as to the IT outsourcing, the innovative method that can enhance the quality of the public service can become. In this paper, We analyze how the Supply Administration introducing the service level agreement (SLA: Service Level Agreement) and the problem that the Samsung SDS is faced with were solved. And the practical affairs guide-line for managing elements which can minimize trial and error and successfully implement the IT outsourcing is presented.