• Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.239-243
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• 2002

Multi-valued decision making for transitional stochastic events was newly derived based on conditional probability of knowledge database which included experts'knowledge and experience. The proposed multi-valued decision making was successfully adopted to the determination of the five levels of the vigilance of a subject during the EEG (electroencephalogram) recording; awake stage (stage W), and sleep stages (stage REM (rapid eye movement), stage 1, stage 2, stage $\sfrac{3}{4}$). Innovative feature of the proposed method is that the algorithm of decision making can be constructed only by use of the knowledge database, inspected by experts. The proposed multi-valued decision making with a mathematical background of the probability can also be applicable widely, in industries and in other medical fields for purposes of the multi-valued decision making.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.19 no.3 s.59
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• pp.20-27
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• 2005

This paper evaluates the fire safety level of eight pump rooms in the nuclear power plant using a fire model, CFAST We estimate the Conditional Core Damage Probability (CCDP) of each room based on the analyzed results of CFAST Eight rooms located on the primary auxiliary building of the nuclear power plant are high pressure safety injection pump room A/B, low pressure safety injection pump room Am. containment sprdy pump room A/B, and motor-driven auxiliary feed water pump room A/B. The upper layer gas temperature of each room is estimated and the integrity of cable is reviewed. Based on the results, the integrity of the cable located at the upper part of compartment is maintained without thermal damage. The Conditional Core Damage Probability Is reduced to half of the old values. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for eight pump rooms using the fire model will be capable of reducing the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.102-111
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• 2004

Partial quenching structure of turbulent diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer is investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics to develope a prediction model for the turbulent lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the problem of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by adopting level-set method which describes propagating or retreating flame front with specified propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulations with two model problems for the propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for a turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping. The probability to encounter reacting' state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate in contrast to the stiff transition of resulted from the flame-hole random walk mapping and could be attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.18-29
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• 2004

Partial quenching structure of diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer has been investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics in oder to develope a prediction model for the phenomenon of turbulent flame lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the shortcoming of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by employing the level-set method which enables us to include the effect of finite flame edge propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulation results with two models for the edge propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with the level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping based on three critical scalar dissipation rates. The probability to encounter reacting state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate. Such a smooth transition is attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.

• School Mathematics
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.241-255
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to analyze teachers' understanding on generating random number in Monte Carlo simulation and to provide educational implications in school practice. The results showed that the 70% of the teachers selected wrong ideas from three types for random-number as strategies for problem solving a probability problem and also they make some errors to justify their opinion. The first kind of the errors was that the probability of a point or boundary was equal to the value of the probability density function in the continuous probability distribution. The second kind of the errors was that the teachers failed to recognize that the sample space has been changed by conditional probability. The third kind of the errors was that when two random variables X, Y are independence of each other, then only, joint probability distribution is satisfied $P(X=x,\;Y=y)=p(X=x){\times}P(Y=y{\mid}X=x)$.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1421-1428
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• 2013

In this paper, we would like to test whether the hit at a particular bat has a dependency with the hitting results at the previous bats in professional baseball games. For this purpose, we used the 2011 Korean Baseball League data. We find out that the hitting percentage at a particular bat has no dependency with the hit at the previous bat, after reviewing the conditional probability of hit at each bat and the lift. From the independence test of hits at consecutive bats, and hit at a particular bat with no hits at previous bats, we can conclude that hits at particular bats are not dependent on the hits at previous bats in most cases. Hence, we can safely conclude that a hit at a particular bat is statistically independent from the hits at the previous bats.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.51
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• pp.199-210
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• 1999

The number of car accident is Recently on the increase in Korea because of the explosive increase of cars, the poor road condition, the lack of safety facility, and others. The insurant with a accident has to decide whether receiving a insurance or not. In this paper, we represent a reasonable decision support material by calculating the approximate insurance fee based on the discount rate and premium additive rate, which is changed by the accident type and the accident expenditure. Practically, there is difference in the standard insurance rate and premium additive rate according to the accident type and the accident expenditure in Korea. The premium additive rate is assessed considering the number of accident, the pattern of accident, and the reason of accident for 3 years. In this paper, we represent a decision making method considering not only the first-time car accident but also the future car accident. For considering the repeated accident, we analyzed the real data accumulated until the year of 1996 from S Insurance Company, and estimated the probability density function between the first and the second-time accident, and executed the goodness of fit test using ARENA and STATISTICA software. Using this conditional PDF, we can calculate the insurance fee next 3 years and compare the insurance fee with the equivalent present value of cash flows. The program performing this analysis is represented, and written in VISUAL BASIC Language. We tried to suggest an accurate guideline for the insurant to decide the insurance coverage rationally, and tried to correct a wrong idea of dependence on the car insurance only by the amount of the accident expenditure. And we expect this study can generally be applied to many different accident types under the uncertain circumstances in our daily life.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.17-26
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• 2022

Sensor Nodes play a major role to monitor and sense the variations in physical space in various real-time application scenarios. These nodes are powered by limited battery resources and replacing those resource is highly tedious task along with this it increases implementation cost. Thus, maintaining a good network lifespan is amongst the utmost important challenge in this field of WSN. Currently, energy efficient routing techniques are considered as promising solution to prolong the network lifespan where multi-hop communications are performed by identifying the most energy efficient path. However, the existing scheme suffer from performance related issues. To solve the issues of existing techniques, a novel hybrid technique by merging particle swarm optimization and game theory model is presented. The PSO helps to obtain the efficient number of cluster and Cluster Head selection whereas game theory aids in finding the best optimized path from source to destination by utilizing a path selection probability approach. This probability is obtained by using conditional probability to compute payoff for agents. When compared to current strategies, the experimental study demonstrates that the proposed GTPSO strategy outperforms them.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.870-875
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• 2013

After introducing diagnosis equipment power failure prevention activities for distribution system have become more active. To do facility diagnosis and maintenance work more efficiently we need to evaluate reliability for the system and should determine the priority line with appropriate criteria. Thus, to calculate risk factor for the power distribution line that are composed of many component facilities its historical failure events for the last 5 years are collected and analysed. The failure statics show that more than 60% of various failures are related to environment factors randomly and about 20% of the failures are refer to the aging. As a strategic evaluation system reflecting these environmental influence is needed, a system on the basis of the probabilistic approach related statical variables in terms of failure rate and failure probability of electrical components is proposed. The figures for the evaluation are derived from the field failure DB. With adopting Bayesian rule we can calculate easily about conditional probability query. The proposed evaluation system is demonstrated with model system and the calculated indices representing the properties of the model line are discussed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.241-250
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• 2015

An important scientific objective of longitudinal studies involves tracking the probability of a subject having certain health condition over the course of the study. Proper definitions and estimates of disease risk tracking have important implications in the design and analysis of long-term biomedical studies and in developing guidelines for disease prevention and intervention. We study in this paper a class of rank-tracking probabilities to describe a subject's conditional probabilities of having certain health outcomes at two different time points. Linear mixed effects models are considered to estimate the tracking probabilities and their ratios of interest. We apply our methods to an epidemiological study of childhood cardiovascular risk factors.