• Title/Summary/Keyword: Z-Score Model

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Association of Financial Distress and Predicted Bankruptcy: The Case of Pakistani Banking Sector

  • ULLAH, Hafeez;WANG, Zhuquan;ABBAS, Muhammad Ghazanfar;ZHANG, Fan;SHAHZAD, Umeair;MAHMOOD, Memon Rafait
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.573-585
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    • 2021
  • The banking sector is one of the most important sectors in Pakistan's struggling economy. Recent studies have recommended that suitable methods can be applied to predict bankruptcy. In this context, this work analyzes Pakistan's banking sector's financial status through the five-factor Altman Z-score model, which determines the probability of bankruptcy for an organization. Banking data has been collected through the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the period 2013-2017. The Z-score assessment criteria is defined as: Z> 2.99 - "safe" zone; Z> 1.8 Z>2.98- "grey" zone; and Z <1.8 - "distress" zone. Results show good predictions for the local banking industry, while most foreign Pakistani banks were found bankrupt with the Z-score below 1.1. One of the financial risks investors face when investing in any company is the risk of bankruptcy. One of the most used models for predicting financial distress for any company is Altman's Z-score model. On the other hand, the Z-score analysis suggests that all banking establishments are not bankrupt because they have sufficient ability to control bankruptcy. At the same time, foreign banks failed financially and would not be able to be sustained in the future because they do not have the ability to pay the short-term and long-term debt.

A statistical model for interview score based on projection (사영에 근거한 면접 점수의 통계적 모형)

  • Park, Cheol-Yong;Kim, Hyun-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we propose a statistical model based on projection that generates interview scores. In this model, each interviewee's true score and its related variable are viewed as X, Y values respectively in the two dimensional plane, and each interviewer's score is the projected score of true score X to the axis rotated by some angle, which reflects the interviewer's perspective. Each interviewer's observed interview score is obtained by adding personal bias and observed error to this projected score. We compared commonly used standardizing methods of interview scores such as trimmed mean method, rank method, and z-score method based on the proposed statistical model. In this simulation, two types of interview methods, two numbers of interviewers, two degrees of interviewers' expertise and two distributions and three correlations between actual score and its related variable are all considered.

Exploring the Health Production Model in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Tuyen Thi Mong;NGUYEN, Quyen Le Hoang Thuy To
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.391-397
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    • 2021
  • One of the sustainable development goals is to promote good health and well-being for all people. Child health is a top priority since their health issues can have a detrimental impact on human capital development, which is a critical input for the growth model. This paper applies the health production model to explore the determinants that influence the health of children under the age of five. The results of a survey of 203 households in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were examined. Child health is measured using anthropometric indicators such as weight-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height (ZWFH). Three separate multinomial logistic models are regressed to examine the drivers of child health as proxied by z-score weight for age, z-score height for age, and z-score weight for height. The significance of input variables relating to a child's attributes, household, and environment was validated by the findings. The inclusion of overweight besides under-nourished indexes is novel because it reflects the current trend of child over-nutrition. The findings of the study highlight the importance of a wide range of initiatives to enhance child health. Moreover, the genetic effect is found to be crowded out by environmental and household factors. The finding verifies that despite their parents' moderate height, the future generation of Vietnamese can achieve the desired height.

Estimation and Prediction of Financial Distress: Non-Financial Firms in Bursa Malaysia

  • HIONG, Hii King;JALIL, Muhammad Farhan;SENG, Andrew Tiong Hock
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2021
  • Altman's Z-score is used to measure a company's financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. The goal of this study is to use Altman's Z-score model to forecast insolvency in non-financial publicly traded enterprises. Non-financial firms are a significant industry in Malaysia, and current trends of consolidation and long-term government subsidies make assessing the financial health of such businesses critical not just for the owners, but also for other stakeholders. The sample of this study includes 84 listed companies in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Of the 84 companies, 52 are considered high risk, and 32 are considered low-risk companies. Secondary data for the analysis was gathered from chosen companies' financial reports. The findings of this study show that the Altman model may be used to forecast a company's financial collapse. It dispelled any reservations about the model's legitimacy and the utility of applying it to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy in a company. The findings of this study have significant consequences for investors, creditors, and corporate management. Portfolio managers may make better selections by not investing in companies that have proved to be in danger of failing if they understand the variables that contribute to corporate distress.

A comparative study of established z score models for coronary artery diameters in 181 healthy Korean children

  • Ryu, Kyungguk;Yu, Jeong Jin;Jun, Hyun Ok;Shin, Eun Jung;Heo, Young Hee;Baek, Jae Suk;Kim, Young-Hwue;Ko, Jae-Kon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.60 no.11
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the statistical properties of four previously developed pediatric coronary artery z score models in healthy Korean children. Methods: The study subjects were 181 healthy Korean children, whose age ranged from 1 month to 15 years. The diameter of each coronary artery was measured using 2-dimensional echocardiography and converted to the z score in the four models (McCrindle, Olivieri, Dallaire, and Japanese model). Descriptive statistical analyses and 1-sample t tests were performed. Results: All calculated z scores had P values of ${\geq}0.050$ using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The one sample t test showed that the mean z scores did not converge to zero except in 1 model, and the mean right coronary artery (RCA) z score was less than zero in all 4 models. The smaller RCA diameter in this study could be associated with the more distal measuring point used to avoid the conal branch. The percentage of subjects with extreme z score values (${\geq}2.0$ and ${\geq}2.5$) for the left main coronary artery (LMCA) seems to be higher in the Dallaire (4.9% and 3.3%) and Japanese models (7.1% and 3.8%). Conclusion: All 4 models showed statistical feasibility of normal distribution. More precise instructions would be needed for the measurement of the RCA. The higher percentage of extreme z scores for the LMCA is compatible with the basic understanding of anatomic variation in the LMCA.

The Characteristics and Implementations of Quality Metrics for Analyzing Innovation Effects in Six Sigma Projects (식스시그마 프로젝트 사례에서 혁신효과 분석을 위한 품질척도의 특성 및 적용)

  • Choi, Sungwoon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2014
  • This research discusses the characteristics and the implementation strategies for two types of quality metrics to analyze innovation effects in six sigma projects: fixed specification type and moving specification type. $Z_{st}$, $P_{pk}$ are quality metrics of fixed specification type that are influenced by predetermined specification. In contrast, the quality metrics of moving specification type such as Strictly Standardized Mean Difference(SSMD), Z-Score, F-Statistic and t-Statistic are independent from predetermined specification. $Z_{st}$ sigma level obtains defective rates of Parts Per Million(PPM) and Defects Per Million Opportunities(DPMO). However, the defective rates between different industrial sectors are incomparable due to their own technological inherence. In order to explore relative method to compare defective rates between different industrial sectors, the ratio of specification and natural tolerance called, $P_{pk}$, is used. The drawback of this $P_{pk}$ metric is that it is highly dependent on the specification. The metrics of F-Statistic and t-Statistic identify innovation effect by comparing before-and-after of accuracy and precision. These statistics are not affected by specification, but affected by type of statistical distribution models and sample size. Hence, statistical significance determined by above two statistics cannot give a same conclusion as practical significance. In conclusion, SSMD and Z-Score are the best quality metrics that are uninfluenced by fixed specification, theoretical distribution model and arbitrary sample size. Those metrics also identify the innovation effects for before-and-after of accuracy and precision. It is beneficial to use SSMD and Z-Score methods along with popular methods of $Z_{st}$ sigma level and $P_{pk}$ that are commonly employed in six sigma projects. The case studies from national six sigma contest from 2011 to 2012 are proposed and analyzed to provide the guidelines for the usage of quality metrics for quality practitioners.

Nexus among Bank Competition, Efficiency and Financial Stability: A Comprehensive Study in Bangladesh

  • RAHMAN, Syed Mohammad Khaled;CHOWDHURY, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous;TANIA, Tasmina Chowdhury
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.317-328
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the impact of bank competition and efficiency in the financial stability of the banking sector in Bangladesh. The study used the Lerner index and the Boone indicator to represent the bank competition, while the non-performing loan (NPL) and Z-score are used to represent financial stability. The secondary data were collected from the annual reports of 28 DSE listed commercial banks of Bangladesh over the period from 2011 to 2018. Using a dynamic panel GMM model, the study found the Lerner index is significantly negatively related with Z-score, which means that higher bank competition results in higher bank stability. It is also seen that higher cost efficiency results in higher bank stability. The Lerner index has negative, but insignificant impact on NPL. Similarly, using the Boone indicator, this study found that lower competition increases NPL. In terms of the Z-score, the Boone indicator found that 1 unit of increment results in decrease of the Z-score by 6.15 units. The study suggests that, as more competition results in more financial soundness, the banking industry competition should be ensured by policymakers or regulators. Banks could enhance financial stability by cost control to achieve cost efficiency as well as by improving loan-to-asset ratio.

Factors Affecting Bankruptcy Risks of Firms: Evidence from Listed Companies on Vietnamese Stock Market

  • TRUONG, Thanh Hang;NGUYEN, La Soa
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.275-283
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to investigate the influence of internal factors on the bankruptcy risk of an enterprise through a sample of 439 companies listed on the Vietnamese stock exchange. The research collected secondary data from annual audited financial statements from 2008 to 2019 of listing companies. Using two different regression models with two dependent variables, six independent and control variables, we discovered that three of the model's six factors, namely return on total assets, current payment rate, and financial leverage, influence the risk of bankruptcy and account for 86.78% of the variations in firm bankruptcy risk. Financial leverage has the opposite effect on the Z-score index, increasing the risk of bankruptcy of listed firms. Return on total assets and current ratio have a positive impact on the Z-score index, reducing the risk of bankruptcy of listed companies. The findings also revealed that there is no evidence that the size of a corporation, its fixed asset investment ratio, or the size of an auditing firm have an impact on the Z-score index. These findings provide crucial evidence for business owners and managers, as well as shareholders making future capital investment decisions. Our findings can be applied to other businesses in Vietnam and similar jurisdictions.

Comparison of evaluation measures for classification models on binary data (이진자료 분류모형에 대한 평가측도의 특성 비교)

  • Kim, Byungsoo;Kwon, Soyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.291-300
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates the characteristics of evaluation measures for classification models on a binary response variable in order to evaluate their suitability for use. Six measures are considered: Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity, Precision, F-measure, and the Heidke's skill score (HSS). Evaluation measures are reformulated using x(ratio of actually 1), y(ratio predicted by 1), z(ratio of both actual and predicted by 1) from the confusion matrix. We suggest two necessary conditions to assess the suitability of the evaluation measures. The first condition is that the measure function is constant for x and y in the case of a random model. The second condition is that the measure function is increasing for z and decreasing for x and y. Since only HSS satisfies the two conditions, that is always appropriate as an evaluation measure for the classification model on the binary response variable, and the other measures should be used within a limited range.

The Effects of the Combined Biofeedback and Brief Emotion Regulation Nursing Intervention Based on the Gross Model for Sexually Abused Adolescents (성폭력 피해 청소년을 위한 바이오피드백 병행 Gross 모델기반 단기 정서조절 간호중재 효과)

  • Kim, Jieun;Park, Wanju
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.608-623
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a combined biofeedback and brief emotion regulation (C-BABER) program for sexually abused adolescents. Methods: This study employed a non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design. The participants included 26 sexually abused adolescents from eight Sunflower Centers of South Korea-with 13 in the experimental group and 13 in the control group. The experimental group received four sessions of the individual C-BABER program, each lasting 60 minutes. Results: Compared with the control group, sexually abused adolescents in the experimental group exhibited significant score differences in traumatic symptoms, including depression (Z = - 2.24, p = .025), dissociation (Z = - 2.21, p = .027), anxiety (Z = - 2.02, p = .044), and posttraumatic stress (Z = - 2.01 p = .045); and impulsivity, including positive urgency (Z = - 3.35, p = .001) and negative urgency (Z = - 2.28, p = .023). Additionally, the experimental group exhibited significant score differences in meta-mood, including emotional attention (Z = - 2.45, p = .014), emotional clarity (Z = - 2.30, p = .021), and emotional repair (Z = - 2.28, p = .022); and emotional regulation modes, including emotional suppression (Z = - 2.65, p = .008) and cognitive reappraisal (Z = - 1.98, p = .047). Regarding bio-attention, significant changes were identified in the experimental group for the bio-attention rate and attention maintenance time in the posttest compared to the pretest (p = .001). Conclusion: The C-BABER program for sexually abused adolescents is effective in decreasing traumatic symptoms and impulsivity, and in improving meta-mood, emotional regulation mode, and bio-attention. Therefore, we recommend providing sexually abused adolescents the C-BABER program to help them regulate their emotions and effectively adapt to their lives.