• 제목/요약/키워드: Yield estimation model

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Estimation of Daily Milk Yields from AM/PM Milking Records

  • Lee, Deukhwan;Min, Hongrip
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • 제55권6호
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    • pp.489-500
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    • 2013
  • Daily milk yields on test days were estimated using morning or afternoon partial milk yields collected by official agencies and the accuracy of the estimates was determined. Test-day data for milk yields consisted of 3,156,734 records of AM/PM partial milking measurements of 255,437 milking Holstein cows from 3,708 farms collected from December 2008 to April 2013. A linear regression model (LRM) was applied to estimate daily milk yields using alternate AM/PM milk yield records within lactation stages, milking intervals, and parities on every daily milk yield. The alternate statistical approach was a non-linear hierarchical model (NHM) in which Brody's growth function was implemented by reflecting an animal's physiological milk production cycle. When compared with LRM, daily milk yields predicted by the NHM were assumed to be functionally related to day in milk (or lactation) stage, milking intervals, and partial milk yields. Since the results were in terms of accuracies based on comparisons of different statistical models, accuracies of estimates of daily milk yields by NHM were close to those determined by the LRM. The average of these accuracies was 0.94 for AM partial milk yields and 0.93 for PM partial milk yields for first calving cows. However, the accuracies of AM/PM milk yield estimations from cows under a calving stage higher than the first parity were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively. Correlations between the estimated daily milk yields and the actual daily milk yields ranged from 0.96~0.98. These accuracies were lower for unbalanced AM/PM milking intervals and the first calving cows. Overall, prediction of daily milk yields by NHM would be more appropriate than by LRM due to its flexibility under different milk yield-related circumstances, which provides an idea of the functional relationship between milking intervals and days in milk with daily milk yields from statistical viewpoints.

Estimation of the genetic milk yield parameters of Holstein cattle under heat stress in South Korea

  • Lee, SeokHyun;Do, ChangHee;Choy, YunHo;Dang, ChangGwon;Mahboob, Alam;Cho, Kwanghyun
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.334-340
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    • 2019
  • Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the genetic components of daily milk yield and to re-rank bulls in South Korea by estimated breeding value (EBV) under heat stress using the temperature-humidity index (THI). Methods: This study was conducted using 125,312 monthly test-day records, collected from January 2000 to February 2017 for 19,889 Holstein cows from 647 farms in South Korea. Milk production data were collected from two agencies, the Dairy Cattle Genetic Improvement Center and the Korea Animal Improvement Association, and meteorological data were obtained from 41 regional weather stations using the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) installed throughout South Korea. A random regression model using the THI was applied to estimate genetic parameters of heat tolerance based on the test-day records. The model included herd-year-season, calving age, and days-in-milk as fixed effects, as well as heat tolerance as an additive genetic effect, permanent environmental effect, and direct additive and permanent environmental effect. Results: Below the THI threshold (${\leq}72$; no heat stress), the variance in heat tolerance was zero. However, the heat tolerance variance began to increase as THI exceeded the threshold. The covariance between the genetic additive effect and the heat tolerance effect was -0.33. Heritability estimates of milk yield ranged from 0.111 to 0.176 (average: 0.128). Heritability decreased slightly as THI increased, and began to increase at a THI of 79. The predicted bull EBV ranking varied with THI. Conclusion: We conclude that genetic evaluation using the THI function could be useful for selecting bulls for heat tolerance in South Korea.

개발지역에서의 토사발생규모와 모형의 적용성 연구 (The study of Applicabilities for Sediment Yield Model in the Developing Area)

  • 박무종;김양수
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 개발활동에 의해 가속화되는 토사유출량의 발생규모를 토사유출량 산정모형을 이용하여 산정하고 현장에서의 토사발생량과 비교하여 모형의 적용성을 파악하는데 목적이 있다. 토사유출량 산정시 주로 적용되는 범양토양유실량식(USLE) 혹은 TRB(Transport Research Board) 모형등은 외국에서 개발되어 국내에서는 모형에 대한 검증과 검정이 구체적으로 수행되지 않은 상태로 이용되고 있으며 모형의 적용절차 및 한계에 대한 검토도 이루어지지 않은 상태이다. 본 연구에서는 충남 천안지역 개발현장에서의 토사발생량과 토사유출 발생규모를 조사하고 그 특성을 분석하였으며, 비교적 실무에서 적용가능한 범양토양 손실모형, Transport Research Board모형, MUSLE모형, Morgan과 Finney모형기법을 실유역에 적용한 예측값을 비교하여 모형의 적용성을 분석하였다. 모형의 적용결과 USLE모형과 TRB모형은 과대산정의 가능성이 있으며 단일호우에 대한 토사유출량을 산정하는 MUSLE모형이 상대적으로 실측치와 유사한 결과를 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 토사유출을 위한 대책수립을 위한 기초자료로 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

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합성구조체의 경계면 슬립이 거동과 성능에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Slip for Interface on Behavior and Capacity in Hybrid Structure)

  • 정연주;정광회;김병석
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2001년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.385-390
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents a nonlinear analysis technique with slip, the effects of slip modulus and composite action by shear connector on behavior and capacity in composite structure of sandwich system. As a results of this study, it proved that the slip modulus, in case of shear behavior, seldom influence load-resistance capacity such as yield and ultimate load, but in case of flexural behavior, it appropriately influence load-resistance capacity because of stress redistribution by slip. In case of flexural behavior, analysis result for perfect-composite results in over-estimation and perfect-slip results in under-estimation on behavior and capacity. Therefore, it is desirable to model steel-concrete interface with partial-composite. The effects of slip on behavior and capacity are less in case of positive composite than loosely composite, and it proved that composite action by shear connector improve the load-resistance capacity of this system.

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지반침하에 대한 매설배관의 건전성 평가 (Reliability Estimation of the Buried Pipelines for the Ground Subsidence)

  • 이억섭;김의상;김동혁
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1557-1560
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence on failure prediction of buried pipelines. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with three cases of ground subsidence. We estimate the distribution of stresses imposed on the buried pipelines by varying boundary conditions and calculate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and thickness of pipeline on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are also systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing a ground subsidence region.

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어업권 취소에 대한 손실보상액 추정과 이자율 (The Estimation of Compensation for Revoking a License for Fishery Business and Appropriate Discount Rate)

  • 정형찬;정만화
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제44권2호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2013
  • We investigate the appropriateness of the fixed 12% discount rate to be used in estimating the amount of compensation for revoking a license for fishery business by the Enforcement Decree of Fisheries Act in Korea. We also suggest the appropriate discount rate fully reflecting the change of market interest rate in the Korean financial market. The capital asset pricing model, or, CAPM is the best known model of risk and return, and is widely used to estimate the expected rate of return for the risky projects. Even though the CAPM implies that the discount rate or the expected rate of return should change as the related market factors do, the discount rate used to estimate compensation for revoking a license for fishery business remains to be the same 12% rate for the last 15 years by law. During this period, however, the yield to maturity for the 5-year government bonds in Korea has dramatically changed from about 12% to less than 3%. In order to provide the fair compensation for the damages against the coastal fisheries and evaluate the intrinsic value of fishery resources in the coastal areas, we suggest that the appropriate discount rate should be determined by the yield to maturity of the government bonds with 5-year maturity, instead of the current fixed 12% interest rate.

Estimation of yield strength due to neutron irradiation in a pressure vessel of WWER-1000 reactor based on the correction of the secondary displacement model

  • Elaheh Moslemi-Mehni;Farrokh Khoshahval;Reza Pour-Imani;M.A. Amirkhani-Dehkordi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제55권9호
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    • pp.3229-3240
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    • 2023
  • Due to neutron radiation, atomic displacement has a significant effect on material in nuclear reactors. A range of secondary displacement models, including the Kinchin-Pease (K-P), Lindhard, Norgett-Robinson-Torrens (NRT), and athermal recombination-corrected displacement per atom (arc-dpa) have been suggested to calculate the number of displacement per atom (dpa). As neutron elastic interaction is the main cause of displacement damage, the focus of the current study is to calculate the atomic displacement caused by the neutron elastic interaction in order to estimate the exact amount of yield strength in a WWER-1000 reactor pressure vessel. To achieve this purpose, the reactor core is simulated by MCNPX code. In addition, a program is developed to calculate the elastic radiation damage induced by the incident neutron flux (RADIX) based on different models using Fortran programming language. Also, due to non-elastic interaction, the displacement damage is calculated by the HEATR module of the NJOY code. ASME E-693-01 standard, SPECTER, NJOY codes, and other pervious findings have been used to validate RADIX results. The results showed that the RADIX(arc-dpa)/HEATR outputs have appropriate accuracy. The relative error of the calculated dpa resulting from RADIX(arc-dpa)/HEATR is about 8% and 46% less than NJOY code, respectively in the ¼ and ¾ vessel wall.

Rheology of flocculated kaolinite dispersions

  • McFarlane A.J.;Addai-Mensah J.;Bremmell K.
    • Korea-Australia Rheology Journal
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2005
  • Rheological characterisation of flocculated kaolinite pulps has been undertaken to elucidate particle interactions underpinning the dewatering behaviour induced by flocculation with polyethylene oxide (PEO), anionic polyacrylamide (PAM A) and their blends. Shear yield stress $(\tau_y)$ analysis indicated that polymer mediated particle interactions were markedly amplified upon shear of PEG based pulps. In contrast, PAM A based pulps showed a significant decrease in yield values upon shear. Steady stress measurements analysed using a modified Ellis model indicated subtle differences between the respective linear viscoelastic plateaus of the pulps. Furthermore, modified shear thinning behaviour was evident in PEG based pulps. Estimation of elastic and viscous moduli (G', G') was made using dynamic stress analysis for comparison with values determined from vane measurements. Despite a noticeable difference in the magnitude of G' between the two methods, similar trends indicating sheared PEG-based pulps to be more elastic than PAM based pulps, were observed. Floc microstructural observations obtained in support of rheological properties indicate that PEG flocculant induces significantly more compact particle aggregation within the clay pulps under shear consistent with the yield stress data, in contrast to PAM A, or indeed unsheared PEG based pulps. Consequentially, sheared PEG based pulps show significantly improved dewatering behaviour. The implications of the results, potential benefits and drawbacks of flocculation with PEG and PAM A are discussed with respect to improvements in current dewatering processes used in the minerals industry.

강원도 산간지역의 토사유출량 산정 (Sediments Yield Estimation of Gangwon Mountain Region in Korea)

  • 권혁재
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 강원도 인제군 산간지역에 대해 토사량 예측모형을 이용하여 산정한 토사량과 실제 준설량을 비교하였다. MSDPM과 LADMP를 한국지형에 맞게 보정하고 수정하여 사용하였다. 두 식 모두 토사 유발 강우강도와 토사 유발 강우량 개념을 도입하였으며 보정계수를 사용하여 식을 보정하였다. 계산 결과와 준설량을 비교한 결과, MSDPM의 계산결과가 LADMP보다 더 잘 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. MSDPM의 계산결과는 준설량과 약 27.6% 절대치 차이가 났으며 LADMP의 계산결과는 준설량과 약 50.6%의 절대치 차이를 나타냈다. 본 연구에서 보정된 두 개의 토사량 예측모형은 우리나라 산간지역의 토사량 예측을 위해서 사용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

A Krein Space Approach for Robust Extended Kalman Filtering on Mobile Robots in the Presence of Uncertainties

  • Jin, Seung-Hee;Park, Jin-Bae
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1771-1776
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    • 2003
  • In mobile robot navigation, one of the key problems is the pose estimation of the mobile robot. Although the odometry can be used to describe the motions of the mobile robots quite simple and accurately, the validities of the models are limited by a number of error sources contaminating the encoder outputs so that applying the conventional extended Kalman filter to these nominal model does not yield the satisfactory performance. As a remedy for this problem, we consider the uncertain nonlinear kinematic model of the mobile robot that contains the norm bounded uncertainties and also propose a new robust extended Kalman filter based on the Krein space approach. The proposed robust filter has the same recursive structure as the conventional extended Kalman filter and can hence be readily designed to effectively account for the uncertainties. The computer simulations will be given to verify the robustness against the parameter variation as well as the reliable performance of the proposed robust filter.

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