Estimation of Daily Milk Yields from AM/PM Milking Records

Daily milk yields on test days were estimated using morning or afternoon partial milk yields collected by official agencies and the accuracy of the estimates was determined. Test-day data for milk yields consisted of 3,156,734 records of AM/PM partial milking measurements of 255,437 milking Holstein cows from 3,708 farms collected from December 2008 to April 2013. A linear regression model (LRM) was applied to estimate daily milk yields using alternate AM/PM milk yield records within lactation stages, milking intervals, and parities on every daily milk yield. The alternate statistical approach was a non-linear hierarchical model (NHM) in which Brody's growth function was implemented by reflecting an animal's physiological milk production cycle. When compared with LRM, daily milk yields predicted by the NHM were assumed to be functionally related to day in milk (or lactation) stage, milking intervals, and partial milk yields. Since the results were in terms of accuracies based on comparisons of different statistical models, accuracies of estimates of daily milk yields by NHM were close to those determined by the LRM. The average of these accuracies was 0.94 for AM partial milk yields and 0.93 for PM partial milk yields for first calving cows. However, the accuracies of AM/PM milk yield estimations from cows under a calving stage higher than the first parity were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively. Correlations between the estimated daily milk yields and the actual daily milk yields ranged from 0.96~0.98. These accuracies were lower for unbalanced AM/PM milking intervals and the first calving cows. Overall, prediction of daily milk yields by NHM would be more appropriate than by LRM due to its flexibility under different milk yield-related circumstances, which provides an idea of the functional relationship between milking intervals and days in milk with daily milk yields from statistical viewpoints.