• Title/Summary/Keyword: Worst-Case Analysis

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Initial Risk Assessment of Acetanilide with Respect to Ecological Integrity (아세트아닐리드의 초기 환경위해성 평가)

  • Lee, Su-Rae;Park, Seon-Ju;Lee, Mi-Kyung;Nam, U-Kyung;Chung, Sun-Hwa;Seog, Geum-Su;Park, Kwang-Sik;Kim, Kyun;Kim, Yong-Hwa
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.15 no.1_2
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2000
  • Acetanilide may be released into the environment through air and wastewater from its production and use sites as an intermediate in the synthesis of pharmaceuticals and dyes. Acetanilide is biodegraded rapidly under aerobic conditions and decomposed by indirect photolysis in the presence of OH radicals. An estimated bioconcentration factor of 4.5 suggests that bioaccumulation in aquatic organisms is low. Ecotoxicological data on acetanilide exist on acute toxicity to fishes of 4 species only. According to the EUSES system, the lowest PNEC (Predicted no effect concentration) in fishes is 0.01 mg/1 and PEC (Predicted environmental concentration) for surface water on a regional scale is 9.1$\times$10$\^$-5/mg/l as the worst case. RCR (Risk characterization ratio) of acetanilide for surface water on a regional scale was estimated as 9.1$\times$10-3, which is safe enough for fishes, RCR on a local basis slightly exceeds the value 1 in water and sediment; that is, 1.3 and 1.6, respectively, which suggests the existence of ecotoxicological risk at the vicinity of the manufacturing site. For the refinement of environmental risk assessment on acetanilide, more data should be collected regarding prolonged fish toxicity, acute toxicity toward daphnia and algae. It is, therefore, recommended that acetanilide should be a candidate for further work to supplement the lacking data until it is proved to be safe in the ecotoxicological aspects.

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Analysis of Reliability of Weather Fields for Typhoon Maemi (0314) (태풍 기상장의 신뢰도 분석: 태풍 매미(0314))

  • Yoon, Sung Bum;Jeong, Weon Mu;Jho, Myeong Hwan;Ryu, Kyong Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.351-362
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    • 2020
  • Numerical simulations of the storm surge and waves induced by the Typhoon Maemi incident on the south sea of Korea in 2003 are performed using the JMA-MSM forecast weather field, NCEP-CFSR reanalysis weather field, ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis weather field, and the pressure and wind fields obtained using the best track information provided by JTWC. The calculated surge heights are compared with the time history observed at harbours along the coasts of Korea. For the waves occurring coincidentally with the storm surges the calculated significant wave heights are compared with the measured data. Based on the comparison of surge and wave heights the assessment of the reliability of various weather fields is performed. As a result the JMA-MSM weather fields gives the highest reliability, and the weather field obtained using JTWC best track information gives also relatively good agreement. The ECMWF-ERA5 gives in general surge and wave heights weaker than the measured. The reliability of NCEP-CFSR turns out to be the worst for this special case of Typhoon Maemi. Based on the results of this study it is found that the reliable weather fields are essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and waves.

A Study on the Risk Assessment of River Crossing Pipeline in Urban Area (도심지 하천매설배관의 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Woo-Il;Yoo, Chul-Hee;Shin, Dong-Il;Kim, Tae-Ok;Lee, Hyo-Ryeol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2020
  • In this study, quantitative risk assessment was carried out for city gas high-pressure pipelines crossing through urban rivers. The risk assessment was performed based on actual city gas properties, traffic volume and population and weather data in the worst case scenario conditions. The results confirmed that the social and individual risks were located in conditionally acceptable areas. This can be judged to be safer considering that the risk mitigation effect of protecting the pipes or installing them in the protective structure at the time of the construction of the river buried pipe is not reflected in the result of the risk assessment. Also, SAFETI v8.22 was used to analyze the effects of wind speed and pasquil stability on the accident damage and dispersion distances caused by radiation. As a result of the risk assessment, the safety of the pipelines has been secured to date, but suggests ways to improve safety by preventing unexpected accidents including river bed changes through periodic inspections and monitoring.

A Study on Development of Power Analysing Device for PV Module (태양전지 모듈의 발전량 분석 장치 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Chae-Joo;Kwak, Seung-Hun;Jang, Yeong-Hak;Kim, Tae-Gon;Kim, Eui-Sun;Kim, Tae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the relative performance of modules with changed characteristics due to long term exposure to the outdoor environment, with a specially made test device for simultaneous measurement of real time power output from the photovoltaic array, taking into account the inclined panel, direct irradiation, power being generated, temperature as well as the optimal analysis timing. In terminology description, M is an abbreviation of module and Group A, Group B are 10 modules series connection (1~10 of M), (11~20 of M) for each of them respectively. The overall mean voltage difference of M-18 with the lowest power output and M-14 with the highest output is-2.13V and it was identifiable that voltage difference was more concentrated to Group B. In addition, in case of M-2 and M-7, M-8, when compared with M-14, the overall mean voltage difference was -0.92V, -1.56 and -0.91V respectively showing the more concentration to Group A. When the temperature of module went up by $1^{\circ}C$, the mean voltage was reduced by 0.35V. For current, Group A was lower than Group B by-0.022A and the ratio of each group was 49.68% and 50.32% respectively, presumably the module with deteriorated properties were more concentrated to Group A relatively. From the comparison of relations with the comprehensive accumulation, M-2, M-7, M-8, M-16 and M-18 were those with deterioration of performance to the worst, thereby requiring precision examination. In comparative efficiency, M-14 was the most excellent one as 12.19% while M-18 as 10.53% was identified that its efficiency was comparatively rapidly reduced.

Optimum Evacuation Route Calculation Using AI Q-Learning (AI기법의 Q-Learning을 이용한 최적 퇴선 경로 산출 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Ouk;Kim, Dae-Hee;Youn, Dae-Gwun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.870-874
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    • 2018
  • In the worst maritime accidents, people should abandon ship, but ship structures are narrow and complex and operation takes place on rough seas, so escape is not easy. In particular, passengers on cruise ships are untrained and varied, making evacuation prospects worse. In such a case, the evacuation management of the crew plays a very important role. If a rescuer enters a ship at distress and conducts rescue activities, which zones represent the most effective entry should be examined. Generally, crew and rescuers take the shortest route, but if an accident occurs along the shortest route, it is necessary to select the second-best alternative. To solve this situation, this study aims to calculate evacuation routes using Q-Learning of Reinforcement Learning, which is a machine learning technique. Reinforcement learning is one of the most important functions of artificial intelligence and is currently used in many fields. Most evacuation analysis programs developed so far use the shortest path search method. For this reason, this study explored optimal paths using reinforcement learning. In the future, machine learning techniques will be applicable to various marine-related industries for such purposes as the selection of optimal routes for autonomous vessels and risk avoidance.

A Study on Health Risk Assessment by Exposure to Organic Compounds in University Laboratory (대학 실험실에서의 유기화합물 노출에 의한 건강위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Sim, Sanghyo;Won, Jung-II;Jeon, Hasub;Kim, Dowon
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: Laboratories have various latent physical, chemical, biological, and ergonomical factors according to the diversification and fusion of research and development activities. This study aims to investigate the chemical exposure concentrations of college laboratories and evaluate their health risks, and use them as basic data to promote the health of college students. Methods: The sampling and analysis of harmful chemicals in the air in laboratories were performed using Method 1500 of the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)의 Method 1500. The harmful chemicals in the laboratories were divided into carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic chemicals. Risk assessment was performed using the cancer risk (CR) for carcinogenic chemicals and using the hazard index (HI) for non-carcinogenic chemicals. Results: The harmful chemicals in college laboratories consisted of acetone, diethyl ether, methylene chloride, n-hexane, ethyl acetate, chloroform, tetrahydrofuran, toluene, and xylenes. They showed the highest concentrations in laboratories A (acetone 0.001~2.34ppm), B (chloroform 0.95~6.35ppm), C (diethyl ether 0.08~8.68ppm), and D (acetone 0.07~14.96ppm). The risk assessment result for non-carcinogenic chemicals showed that the HI of methylene chloride was 2.052 for men and 2.333 for women, the HI of N-hexane was 4.442 for men and 5.05 for women. Thus, the HI values were higher than 1. The risk of carcinogenic chemicals is determined by an excess cancer risk (ECR) value of 1.0×10-5, which means that one in 100,000 people has a cancer risk. The ECRs of chloroform exceeded 1.0×10-5 for both men and women, indicating the possibility of cancer risk. Conclusion: College laboratories showed the possibility of non-carcinogenic health risks for methylene chloride, n-hexane, tetrahydrofuran (THF), toluene, and xylenes, and carcinogenic health risks for chloroform, methylene chloride. However, this study used the maximum values of measurements to determine the worst case, and assumed that the subjects were exposed to the corresponding concentrations continuously for 8 hours per day for 300 days per year. In consideration of the nature of laboratory environment in which people are intermittently exposed, rather than continuously, to the chemicals, the results of this study has an element of overestimation.

Accident Risk Consequences Analysis for Operating a Hydrogen Refueling Station in Urban Railway Site (도심 내 철도부지 수소충전소 운영을 위한 사고 위험 영향 분석)

  • Jae Yong Lee;Deokkyu Youn;Chul-Ho Lee;Jaeyoung Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.70-77
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    • 2023
  • In response to climate change, each country is proposing a goal to reduce greenhouse gases in its energy supply and demand plan, and the use of hydrogen gas is a topic that is always prioritized as an energy resource for implementation. A popular way to use this hydrogen gas is the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and expansion of hydrogen charging stations is essential for using these hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, there are several limitations to the expansion of hydrogen refueling stations, the most representative of which is resident acceptance. Most of the hydrogen charging stations currently built in Korea are located in the outskirts with low population density, so the inconvenience to hydrogen fuel cell vehicle users has not been resolved, and as a result, there has been no progress in the spread of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In this paper, we analyzed the consequences of accident damage to determine the risks of constructing a hydrogen charging station on a railroad site frequently used by citizens. The target hydrogen charging station site was a railroad depot in Busan, and there are trains, national highways, and commercial facilities around this site. Assuming the worst-case scenario, we would like to consider the safety of the hydrogen refueling station site by analyzing the area affected by the accident and its consequence.

Improved Social Network Analysis Method in SNS (SNS에서의 개선된 소셜 네트워크 분석 방법)

  • Sohn, Jong-Soo;Cho, Soo-Whan;Kwon, Kyung-Lag;Chung, In-Jeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2012
  • Due to the recent expansion of the Web 2.0 -based services, along with the widespread of smartphones, online social network services are being popularized among users. Online social network services are the online community services which enable users to communicate each other, share information and expand human relationships. In the social network services, each relation between users is represented by a graph consisting of nodes and links. As the users of online social network services are increasing rapidly, the SNS are actively utilized in enterprise marketing, analysis of social phenomenon and so on. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the systematic way to analyze social relationships among the members of the social network using the network theory. In general social network theory consists of nodes and arcs, and it is often depicted in a social network diagram. In a social network diagram, nodes represent individual actors within the network and arcs represent relationships between the nodes. With SNA, we can measure relationships among the people such as degree of intimacy, intensity of connection and classification of the groups. Ever since Social Networking Services (SNS) have drawn increasing attention from millions of users, numerous researches have made to analyze their user relationships and messages. There are typical representative SNA methods: degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality. In the degree of centrality analysis, the shortest path between nodes is not considered. However, it is used as a crucial factor in betweenness centrality, closeness centrality and other SNA methods. In previous researches in SNA, the computation time was not too expensive since the size of social network was small. Unfortunately, most SNA methods require significant time to process relevant data, and it makes difficult to apply the ever increasing SNS data in social network studies. For instance, if the number of nodes in online social network is n, the maximum number of link in social network is n(n-1)/2. It means that it is too expensive to analyze the social network, for example, if the number of nodes is 10,000 the number of links is 49,995,000. Therefore, we propose a heuristic-based method for finding the shortest path among users in the SNS user graph. Through the shortest path finding method, we will show how efficient our proposed approach may be by conducting betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, both of which are widely used in social network studies. Moreover, we devised an enhanced method with addition of best-first-search method and preprocessing step for the reduction of computation time and rapid search of the shortest paths in a huge size of online social network. Best-first-search method finds the shortest path heuristically, which generalizes human experiences. As large number of links is shared by only a few nodes in online social networks, most nods have relatively few connections. As a result, a node with multiple connections functions as a hub node. When searching for a particular node, looking for users with numerous links instead of searching all users indiscriminately has a better chance of finding the desired node more quickly. In this paper, we employ the degree of user node vn as heuristic evaluation function in a graph G = (N, E), where N is a set of vertices, and E is a set of links between two different nodes. As the heuristic evaluation function is used, the worst case could happen when the target node is situated in the bottom of skewed tree. In order to remove such a target node, the preprocessing step is conducted. Next, we find the shortest path between two nodes in social network efficiently and then analyze the social network. For the verification of the proposed method, we crawled 160,000 people from online and then constructed social network. Then we compared with previous methods, which are best-first-search and breath-first-search, in time for searching and analyzing. The suggested method takes 240 seconds to search nodes where breath-first-search based method takes 1,781 seconds (7.4 times faster). Moreover, for social network analysis, the suggested method is 6.8 times and 1.8 times faster than betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, respectively. The proposed method in this paper shows the possibility to analyze a large size of social network with the better performance in time. As a result, our method would improve the efficiency of social network analysis, making it particularly useful in studying social trends or phenomena.

The Studies on various Causes of Cleanness Defects with in Raw Silk. (생사의 대중절 발생원인 구명에 관한 연구)

  • 최병희;마석일
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • no.12
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 1970
  • This studies have been carried out to 3nd various causes of cleanness defects on raw silk which has been increased since 1967 in Korea, so that this treatise may be a guide inform action to improve such a defect in future. The cocoon treatment for the proposed work was carried starting with in worst condition to find the critical limit of degrading through such a work. And various analysis have been also worked out using the annual silk testing data past a few years. The results obtained are as follows. 1. There was a great relationship between cleanness and neatness result. 2. Cleanness result is greatly influenced by mounting conditions and handling of cocoons, which brought 40 percent lower as cleanness result than standard ones in which caused minor defects, especially loops and split ends, so the bad mounting conditions and handling of fresh cocoons degraded raw silk from 4A grade to E. 3. The use of good water quality brought the difference of 1.04 percent in cleanness result rather than the use of bad one. 4. Well technical work brought the difference of 0.86 percent in cleanness result rather than poor technical work. 5, Satisfactory cocoon drying installation brought the difference of 1.97 percent in cleanness result rather than insufficient one. 6. Automatic reeling machine marked lower 1,55 percent in cleanness result than multi-end reeling machine. 7. The degrading of cleanness result from 1965 year silk to 1969 year silk marked 1.99 percent, which almost responds to the degrading rate from good to poor cocoon drying installed cleanness results. In view of this result, nowadays, insufficient cocoon drying installation may be main factor to be worse cleanness result of Korean raw silk. 8. The factors of cleanness defect in raw silk once supplied with cocoon into factory are water quality, technique evaluation, cocoon drying capacity and s: reeling machine. The relationship between cleanness result and above factors are as follows. cleanness result=neatness result+1.6-1.04(1-a)-1.97(1-b)-0.86(1-c)+1.55${\times}$d a: The successive we ratio of water quality (0\longrightarrowl) b: The successive ratio of satisfactory cocoon drying installation (0\longrightarrowl) c: The successive ratio of well technical work (0\longrightarrowl) d: 1 in case multi-end reeling machine o in case automatic reeling machine 9, It is not admitted that there is heavy relationship between cleanness occurrence and nonbreaking reel ability. That mal$.$ be sowed with silk reeling technique. 10. The bad mounting conditions caused the worse result on the cocoon quality as much as cleanness. 11. Besides mounting conditions, there may be another factors affecting on the low reel ability of cocoons in Korea.

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Forecasting Hourly Demand of City Gas in Korea (국내 도시가스의 시간대별 수요 예측)

  • Han, Jung-Hee;Lee, Geun-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.