• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.51-62
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• 2019

This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.385-391
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• 2022

In this study, a multivariate time series analysis was conducted to identify various variables that impact ocean freight rates in addition to supply and demand factors. First, we used the ClarkSea Index, Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, and Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings provided by the Shipping Intelligence as substitute variables for the dependent variable, ocean freight. The following ndependent variables were selected: World Seaborne Trade, World Fleet, Brent Crude Oil Price, World GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (IP OECD) Growth Rate, Interest Rate (US$ LIBOR 6 Months), and Inflation (CP I OECD) through previous studies. The time series data comprise annual data (1992-2020), and a regression analysis was conducted. Results of the regression analysis show that the World Seaborne Trade and Brent Crude Oil P rice impacted the ClarkSea Index. Only the World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade impacted the Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, World Seaborne Oil Trade, Brent Crude Oil Price, IP, and CP I on the Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.341-360
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• 2010

The goal of this study is to forecast the scales of seaborne trade of iron ore and coal. It is assumed that the seaborne trade of iron ore is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world GDP) and the seaborne trade of coal is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world electricity generation). The result shows that the regressions of two functions are statistically significant respectively. As the results of forecasting, the seaborne trade of iron ore in 2010 may be 892 million tons which is increased 5.1% compare to the level of 2009. Also the seaborne trade of coal in 2010 may be 827 million tons which is increased 6.1% compare to the level of 2009. In terms of the compound annual growth rate, it is forecasted that the iron ore may show 4.7% of increasing rate from 2009 to 2015 and the seaborne trade of coal may be increased 6.1% annually for the same period.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.111-129
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• 2017

According to the World Bank statistics, China's contribution to global economic growth during the year of 2013-2016 was estimated at 31.6 percent. This figure is even larger than 29.0 percent, the contribution by summing each contribution of the United States, EU and Japan. The Chinese commodity trade accounts for up to 11.5 percent of world trade volume. Thus, we can consider that the Chinese economy has a strong influence on the global economy. The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the contribution level of Chinese seaborne trade volume on world economy. First, this study conducted a time-lag analysis using Moran test, so we can find that China's level of contribution to global economic growth varies from time to time. The contribution of the first phase (1999-2007) was nearly three times higher than the contributions from the second phase (2008-2016), suggesting that the overall contraction of the global trade volume starting from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has continued until recently and recovery has not even occurred. Second, using the econometrics model, this study conducted an regression analysis of the impact of Chinese imports and exports in chemicals, grain, steel, crude oil, and container on global economic growth. Fixed effects model with time series data has been applied to examine the effect of Chinese seaborne trade volume on global economic growth. According to the empirical analysis of this study, China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain have significant contributions to global economic growth. Estimates of China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain are 1.023, 1.020, 1.019, 1.007 and 1.006, respectively. For example, the estimated value 1.023 of China's exports of steel products means that the growth rate can be 1.023 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate if Chinese seaborne trade volume of exports of steel products increased by one unit (one million tons). This study concludes that the expansion of China's imports and exports should be realized first to increase the global GDP growth rate. The expansion of Chinese trade can lead to a simultaneous stimulus of production and consumption in China, which can even lead to global economic growth ultimately. Thus, depending on how much China's trade will be broaden in the future, the width of global economic growth can be determined.

• Acta Via Serica
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.155-174
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• 2023

Trade along the Silk Routes reached its zenith during the Pax Mongolica, a period of relative stability in Eurasia that was created by the Mongol empire in the 13th and 14th centuries. It is generally believed that the Silk Routes declined after the disintegration of the Mongol empire in the second half of the 14th century and that they fell into disuse after the 1453 Ottoman conquest of Constantinople as the Europeans sought alternative maritime routes to Asia. This paper examines the aftermath of the Mongol-era overland and maritime Silk Routes from a non-Eurocentric perspective. Seen from the standpoint of various successors to the Mongol empire, such as the Timurid empire, the Mughal empire, the Uzbek khanate, the Ottoman empire, Manchu Qing, and Russia, the overland and maritime Silk Routes did not really collapse or sharply decline during the post-Mongol period. These Mongol successor states maintained close and thriving overland trade relations with each other or some important maritime trade relations with Southeast Asia. It may be argued that the Silk Routes in the post-Mongol world functioned rather independently of European seaborne commerce.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.99-112
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• 2020

It is no exaggeration to say that today's world economy is dependent on international trade, which is the result of inter-state transactions. As the vast majority of international goods transport is transported by international shipping, interest in the seaborne transport field is natural in international and trade studies. In particular, in the case of international shipping, as it is the basis of typical international transportation, changes in international shipping due to the innovation of technology may have an effect on international trade norms. In this study, as a result of evaluating port preference in a hypothetical scenario by using the Design of Experiments method, bunkering as well as port service, which is traditionally important, was identified as a major competitive factor of future ports. It has been revealed that, above all, the port to respond to the future is the continued importance of port services and the supply of ship fuel. Therefore, port authorities are providing implications that LNG bunkering infrastructure suitable for international environmental regulations is important.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.55-74
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• 1988

The increase in seaborne cargoes has made our coastal traffic congested, and future coastal traffic is also expected to increase considerably as result of our economic development and high dependence on foreign trade. This increased traffic may be a cause of serious sea pollution as well as greater number of sea accidents. In view of this problem the introduction of VTMS along on our coast is required, following careful study of a large number of foreign systems. This paper analyzes the actual condition of 132 VTMSs in the world from the view point of management method authority of VTMS, coverage and characteristics of system. And this results provide helpful information for the development of VTMS in the future and for the implementation of VTMS in our coastal waterway.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2019

This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.481-489
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• 2002

The purpose of this paper is to construct the model that enables to estimate the amount of tanker voyage charter by region or by ship size. This paper decomposed the mechanism of voyage and time charter step by step, and apply the accumulated date of KMI chartering database. The results of the estimation is that the amount of voyage charter in 2007 will be 25,751 or 23.3% increase compared with that of 2000. And the amount of voyage charter in Korea will be 9.3% of the world amount, and will be 26.6% of the Far East amount.