• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull statistical analysis

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Evaluation of wind loads and the potential of Turkey's south west region by using log-normal and gamma distributions

  • Ozkan, Ramazan;Sen, Faruk;Balli, Serkan
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2020
  • In this study, wind data such as speeds, loads and potential of Muğla which is located in the southwest of Turkey were statistically analyzed. The wind data which consists of hourly wind speed between 2010 and 2013 years, was measured at the 10-meters height in four different ground stations (Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris, Köyceğiz). These stations are operated by The Turkish State Meteorological Service (T.S.M.S). Furthermore, wind data was analyzed by using Log-Normal and Gamma distributions, since these distributions fit better than Weibull, Normal, Exponential and Logistic distributions. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the coefficients of the goodness of fit (R2) were also determined by using statistical analysis. According to the results, extreme wind speed in the research area was 33 m/s at the Datça station. The effective wind load at this speed is 0.68 kN/㎡. The highest mean power densities for Datça, Fethiye, Marmaris and Köyceğiz were found to be 46.2, 1.6, 6.5 and 2.2 W/㎡, respectively. Also, although Log-normal distribution exhibited a good performance i.e., lower AD (Anderson - Darling statistic (AD) values) values, Gamma distribution was found more suitable in the estimation of wind speed and power of the region.

Electrical Insulation Characteristics of HTS SMES (고온초전도 SMES의 절연특성)

  • Cheon Hyeon-Gweon;Choi Jae-Hyeong;Kwag Dong-Soon;Kim Hae-Jong;Seong Ki-Chul;Yun Mun-Soo;Kim Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.574-578
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    • 2006
  • Toward the practical applications, on operation of conduction-cooled HTS SMES at temperatures well below 77 K should be investigated, in order to take advantage of a greater critical current density of HTS and considerably reduce the size and weight of the system. Recently, research and development concerning application of the conduction-cooled HTS SMES that is easily movement are actively progressing in Korea. Electrical insulation under cryogenic temperature is a key and an important element in the application of this apparatus. Using multi wrapped copper by Polyimide film for HTS SMES, the breakdown characteristics of models for turn-to-turn, that is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on breakdown voltage under at and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried.

Generation of Synthetic Time Series Wind Speed Data using Second-Order Markov Chain Model (2차 마르코프 사슬 모델을 이용한 시계열 인공 풍속 자료의 생성)

  • Ki-Wahn Ryu
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2023
  • In this study, synthetic time series wind data was generated numerically using a second-order Markov chain. One year of wind data in 2020 measured by the AWS on Wido Island was used to investigate the statistics for measured wind data. Both the transition probability matrix and the cumulative transition probability matrix for annual hourly mean wind speed were obtained through statistical analysis. Probability density distribution along the wind speed and autocorrelation according to time were compared with the first- and the second-order Markov chains with various lengths of time series wind data. Probability density distributions for measured wind data and synthetic wind data using the first- and the second-order Markov chains were also compared to each other. For the case of the second-order Markov chain, some improvement of the autocorrelation was verified. It turns out that the autocorrelation converges to zero according to increasing the wind speed when the data size is sufficiently large. The generation of artificial wind data is expected to be useful as input data for virtual digital twin wind turbines.

Flexural strength and reliability of highly translucent colored zirconia (고반투명 유색 지르코니아의 굽힘강도와 신뢰도에 대한 연구)

  • Kong, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the flexural strength and reliability of highly translucent colored zirconia for all ceramic restoration. Materials and Methods: Bar-shaped specimens (25 × 4 × 2.5 mm) were prepared from highly translucent monolithic zirconia. Three experimental groups were set up according to color (shade A0, A1, and A3). For each group, 20 specimens were prepared. Flexural strength was determined using a 3-point flexural test and results were analyzed with one-way ANOVA test. Weibull statistical analysis provided 2 parameter estimates: Weibull modulus and characteristic strength. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was performed. Results: There was statistically significant difference between uncolored (Shade A0) and colored (shade A1 and A3) (P < 0.05), but there was no difference between colored groups (P > 0.05). The uncolored group had higher reliability compared with colored study groups. On x-ray diffraction analysis of each group, typical peaks of tetragonal phase appeared in all groups. Conclusion: Within the limitations of this in vitro study, coloring highly translucent zirconia had significant effect on flexural strength and reliability. Therefore, clinicians should be careful when using highly translucent colored zirconia to prevent breakage of veneering ceramic and enhance aesthetics.

Statistical frequency analysis of snow depth using mixed distributions (혼합분포함수를 적용한 최심신적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석)

  • Park, Kyung Woon;Kim, Dongwook;Shin, Ji Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1001-1009
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    • 2019
  • Due to recent increasing heavy snow in Korea, the damage caused by heavy snow is also increasing. In Korea, there are many efforts including establishing disaster prevention measures to reduce the damage throughout the country, but it is difficult to establish the design criteria due to the characteristics of heavy snow. In this study, snowfall frequency analysis was performed to estimate design snow depths using observed snow depth data at Jinju, Changwon and Hapcheon stations. The conventional frequency analysis is sometime limted to apply to the snow depth data containing zero values which produce unrealistc estimates of distributon parameters. To overcome this problem, this study employed mixed distributions based on Lognormal, Generalized Pareto (GP), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gamma, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The results show that the mixed distributions produced smaller design snow depths than single distributions, which indicated that the mixed distributions are applicable and practical to estimate design snow depths.

Reliability analysis methods to one-shot device (일회용품의 신뢰성분석 방안)

  • Baik, Jaiwook
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • There are many one-shot devices that are used once and thrown away. One-shot devices such as firecrackers and ammunition are typical, and they are stored for a while after manufacture and then disposed of after use when necessary. However, unlike general operating systems, these one-shot devices have not been properly evaluated. This study first examines what the government does to secure reliability in the case of ammunition through ammunition stockpile reliability program. Next, in terms of statistical analysis, we show what the reliability analysis methods are for one-shot devices such as ammunition. Specifically, we show that it is possible to know the level of reliability if sampling inspection plan such as KS Q 0001 which is acceptance sampling plan by attributes is used. Next, non-parametric and parametric methods are introduced as ways to determine the storage reliability of ammunition. Among non-parametric methods, Kaplan-Meier method can be used since it can also handle censored data. Among parametric methods, Weibull distribution can be used to determine the storage reliability of ammunition.

A Study on the Life Characteristic of an Automotive Water-pump Bearing Using the Accelerated Test Method (가속시험법을 활용한 자동차용 워터펌프 베어링의 수명특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Hui Sun;Shin, Jung Hun;Park, Jong Won;Sung, Baek Ju
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2015
  • A water-pump located in the cooling area of a car circulates cooling water. A particular bearing element, known as a water-pump bearing, installed in the rotating part carries the entire load. The failure of this water-pump bearing has a direct impact on the failure of the automobile engine, and so securing its reliability is crucial. Several researchers have examined the design principles of the water-pump bearing, but there are no reports on the life characteristic of the bearing yet. Herein, we report the construction of test equipment to reproduce the spalling of the roller contact, which is the main failure mode of the chosen water-pump bearing. We chose the radial load as an accelerated stress factor and validated the failure mode by monitoring the surface defects. We conducted the accelerated life test after determining the accelerated stress level through a combination of finite element analysis and a preliminary test. In the life tests, we used an accelerometer to perform failure diagnosis. In the last stage of this study, we present a statistical reliability analysis. Thus, we fully estimated the shape parameter of the water-pump bearing, accelerating level on the load , and the lifetime (MTTF and B10 life) under real use conditions, and finally proposed an interval estimation value considering the uncertainty of the estimated value.

Classification of Wind Sector in Pohang Region Using Similarity of Time-Series Wind Vectors (시계열 풍속벡터의 유사성을 이용한 포항지역 바람권역 분류)

  • Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kim, Jinsol;Kang, Yong-Heack;Park, Hyeong-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2016
  • The local wind systems in the Pohang region were categorized into wind sectors. Still, thorough knowledge of wind resource assessment, wind environment analysis, and atmospheric environmental impact assessment was required since the region has outstanding wind resources, it is located on the path of typhoon, and it has large-scale atmospheric pollution sources. To overcome the resolution limitation of meteorological dataset and problems of categorization criteria of the preceding studies, the high-resolution wind resource map of the Korea Institute of Energy Research was used as time-series meteorological data; the 2-step method of determining the clustering coefficient through hierarchical clustering analysis and subsequently categorizing the wind sectors through non-hierarchical K-means clustering analysis was adopted. The similarity of normalized time-series wind vector was proposed as the Euclidean distance. The meteor-statistical characteristics of the mean vector wind distribution and meteorological variables of each wind sector were compared. The comparison confirmed significant differences among wind sectors according to the terrain elevation, mean wind speed, Weibull shape parameter, etc.

V-t Characteristics and Survival Probability of Turn-to-Turn Models for HTS Transformer (고온초전도 변압기를 위한 턴간 모델의 V-t 특성 및 생존 확률)

  • Baek, Seung-Myeong;Cheon, Hyeon-Gweon;Nguyen, Van-Dung;Seok, Bok-Yeol;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.356-362
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    • 2004
  • Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HTS transformer, the breakdown and V-t characteristics of two type models for turn-to-turn, one is point contact model, the other is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on V-t characteristics under at voltage as well as breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried. Also, survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The breakdown voltages for surface contact model are lower than that of the point contact model, because the contact area of surface contact model is wider than that of point contact model. At the same time, the shape parameter of the point contact model is a little bit larger than the of the surface contact model. The time to breakdown tn is decreased as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices slightly are increased as the number of layers is increased. According to the increasing applied voltage and decreasing wrapping number, the survival probability is increased.

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The effect of coloring liquid dipping time on the fracture load and color of zirconia ceramics

  • Orhun, Ekren
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSE. The aims of the study were to evaluate the fracture load of zirconia core material after dipping in coloring liquid at different time intervals and to compare the color of dipped blocks with that of prefabricated shaded blocks. MATERIALS AND METHODS. 3-unit bridge frameworks were designed digitally. Sixty frameworks were fabricated using uncolored zirconia blocks by CAD/CAM and divided into 4 groups randomly (n = 15). Group 2 (G2) was subjected to coloring liquids for 2 minutes, Group 4 (G4) for 4 minutes, and Group 6 (G6) for 6 minutes. CFS group was not subjected to any coloring procedure. After coloring, color differences between the test groups and a prefabricated shaded zirconia group (CPZ, n = 15) were evaluated by using a spectrophotometer. Fracture test was conducted immediately after shade evaluation with a Testometric test device at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/sec. Statistical analysis for evaluating color and fracture load was performed by using one way ANOVA followed by Tukey HSD test ($P{\leq}.05$). Weibull analysis was conducted for distribution of fracture load. RESULTS. There was no difference in terms of fracture load and color between CFS (1176.681 N) and G2 (985.638 N) group and between CPZ (81.340) and G2 (81.140) group, respectively. Fracture load values of G4 (779.340 N) and G6 (935.491 N) groups were statistically significantly lower than that of CFS group ($P{\leq}.005$). The color values of G4 (79.340) and G6 (79.673) groups were statistically different than that of CPZ group ($P{\leq}.005$). CONCLUSION. Prolonged immersion of zirconia in coloring liquid not only negatively affected the fracture load of the zirconia being tested in the current study but also deteriorated the desired shade of the restoration.