• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weather generator

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Multi-Site Stochastic Weather Generator for Daily Rainfall in Korea (시공간구조를 가지는 확률적 강우 모형)

  • Kwak, Minjung;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.475-485
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    • 2014
  • A stochastic weather generator based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach is a commonly used tools to simulate a time series of daily weather. In this paper, we propose a multi-site weather generator with applications to historical data in South Korea. The proposed method extends the approach of Kim et al. (2012) by considering spatial dependence in the model. To reduce this phenomenon, we also incorporate a time series of seasonal mean precipitations of South Korea in the GLM weather generator as a covariate. Spatial dependence was incorporated into the model through a latent Gaussian process. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data provided by 62 stations in Korea from 1973{2011.

Stochastic precipitation modeling based on Korean historical data

  • Kim, Yongku;Kim, Hyeonjeong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1309-1317
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    • 2012
  • Stochastic weather generators are commonly used to simulate time series of daily weather, especially precipitation amount. Recently, a generalized linear model (GLM) has been proposed as a convenient approach to fitting these weather generators. In this paper, a stochastic weather generator is considered to model the time series of daily precipitation at Seoul in South Korea. As a covariate, global temperature is introduced to relate long-term temporal scale predictor to short-term temporal predictands. One of the limitations of stochastic weather generators is a marked tendency to underestimate the observed interannual variance of monthly, seasonal, or annual total precipitation. To reduce this phenomenon, we incorporate time series of seasonal total precipitation in the GLM weather generator as covariates. It is veri ed that the addition of these covariates does not distort the performance of the weather generator in other respects.

A Modeling of Daily Temperature in Seoul using GLM Weather Generator (GLM 날씨 발생기를 이용한 서울지역 일일 기온 모형)

  • Kim, Hyeonjeong;Do, Hae Young;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2013
  • Stochastic weather generator is a commonly used tool to simulate daily weather time series. Recently, a generalized linear model(GLM) has been proposed as a convenient approach to tting these weather generators. In the present paper, a stochastic weather generator is considered to model the time series of daily temperatures for Seoul South Korea. As a covariate, precipitation occurrence is introduced to a relate short-term predictor to short-term predictands. One of the limitations of stochastic weather generators is a marked tendency to underestimate the observed interannual variance of monthly, seasonal, or annual total precipitation. To reduce this phenomenon, we incorporate a time series of seasonal mean temperatures in the GLM weather generator as a covariate.

Stochastic Daily Weather Generations for Ungaged Stations (기상자료 미계측 지역의 추계학적 기상발생모형)

  • 강문성;박승우;진영민
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 1998
  • A stochastic weather generator which simulate daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily temperature, relative humidity was developed. The model parameters were estimated using stochastic characteristics analysis of historical data of 71 weather stations. Spatial variations of the parameters for the country were also analyzed. Model parameters of ungauged Sites were determined from parameters of adjacent weather stations using inverse distance method. The model was verified on Suwon and Ulsan weather stations and showed good agreement between simulated and observed data.

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A study on Electrical Characteristics of Solar Cell - Wind Generator Hybrid system (태양광, 풍력발전 하이브리드시스템의 전기적 특성)

  • Hong, Chang-Woo;Choi, Young-Sung;Lee, Kyung-Sup
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.25-25
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we have investigated the electrical characteristics for solar-cell and wind power generator hybrid system. The output of electricity for solar cell - wind generator hybrid system were investigated according to the weather conditions at Naju province.

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Quantification of future climate uncertainty over South Korea using eather generator and GCM

  • Tanveer, Muhammad Ejaz;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.154-154
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    • 2018
  • To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.

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A Study on the Spatial Weather Generator (다지점 추계학적 기상모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1425-1428
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    • 2010
  • 추계학적 기상모형(Stochastic weather generator)은 기상자료의 결측치 보완, 장기간의 기상 시계열 자료 생성, 지역적 기후변화 시나리오의 통계학적 다운스케일링에 적용되어 왔다. 이러한 추계학적 기상모형은 수자원, 농업, 환경, 생태 등의 분야에 적용되어, 수자원 설계, 점/비점오염 거동, 생태 및 수문학적 영향 평가의 중요한 도구로 이용되어 오고 있다. 또한, 최근 가장 큰 이슈가 되고 있는 기후변화의 영향을 평가하는데 필수불가결한 분야이다. 이 분야의 중요한 변화는 과거에는 지점별로 각각 기상자료를 생성하였으나, 최근에는 지점간의 상관성을 고려한 다지점 해석이 계속적으로 연구되어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 유역규모에 적용하기 타당한 기상자료생성을 위하여 관측지점간의 상관성, 강수장(rainfall field)의 생성, 호우이동(storm movement)을 고려한 추계학적 기상모형을 제안하고, 충주댐 유역을 대상으로 그 적용성을 평가하였다.

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Development of wind power generator system model using PSCAD/EMTDC (PSCAD/EMTDC를 이용한 풍력발전 시스템 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Young-Ju;Park, Dae-Jin;Ali, Mohd Hasan;Park, Min-Won;Yu, In-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.2000-2001
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    • 2007
  • Wind power generation system based on the PSCAD/EMTD is proposed in this paper for the simulations under the real weather conditions. Real field data of weather condition is interfaced to PSCAD/EMTDC using Fortran program interfaced method. And a new turbine component is developed using characteristic equation of a wind turbine and pitch angle control algorism. The generator output and current supplied into utility can be obtained by the transient analysis using PSCAD/EMTDC.

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Mechatronic V8 Engine Start Capabilities of an Automotive Starter/Generator System at the Super Cold Weather

  • Jang, Bong-Choon
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.942-949
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    • 2002
  • The use of a combined starter/generator integrated into the drive train of an automobile offers several possibilities for improvement of fuel economy The use of such a starter/generator system is made feasible by a switch from a 14 volts electrical system to a 42 volts system, however, the sizing of the components is not a trivial problem. This study combines a dynamic electromechanical model of the starter, battery and power electronics with the nonlinear mechanics of the piston/crankshaft system and a thermofluid model of the compression and expansion processes to investigate the cold start problem. The example involves the start of an eight cylinder engine at -25 degrees Celsius. This paper shows how the mechatronic V8 engine of an automotive starter/generator system for the startability works well.

Study on a Noval Simulation Method of Wind Power Generation System Using PSCAD/EMTDC (PSCAD/EMTDC를 이용한 풍력발전시스템의 새로운 시뮬레이션 방법에 관한 연구)

  • 한상근;박민원;유인근
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.307-315
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    • 2003
  • This paper proposes a novel simulation method of WPGS (Wind Power Generation System). The rotation speed control method of turbine under variable wind speed using the pitch control is proposed. Moreover, when wind speed exceeds the cut-out wind speed, the turbine will be stopped by controlling pitch angle to 90$^{\circ}$, otherwise it will be controlled to steady-state operation. For the purpose of effective simulation, the SWRW (Simulation method for WPGS using Real Weather condition) is used for the utility interactive WPGS simulation in this paper, in which those of three topics for the WPGS simulation: user-friendly method, applicability to grid-connection and the utilization of the real weather conditions, are satisfied. It is impossible to consider the real weather conditions in the WPGS simulation using the EMTP type of simulators and PSPICE, etc. External parameter of the real weather conditions is necessary to ensure the simulation accuracy. The simulation of the WPGS using the real weather conditions including components modeling of wind turbine system is achieved by introducing the interface method of a non-linear external parameter and FORTRAN using PSCAD/EMTDC in this paper. The simulation of long-term, short-term, over cut-out and under cut-out wind speeds will be peformed by the proposed simulation method effectively. The efficiency of wind power generator, power converter and flow of energy are analyzed by wind speed of the long-term simulation. The generator output and current supplied into utility can be obtained by the short-term simulation. Finally, transient-state of the WPGS can be analyzed by the simulation results of over cut-out and under cut-out wind speeds, respectively.