• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.264-272
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.149-162
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• 2022

This study investigated the prediction skill of the Asian dust seasonal forecasting model (GloSea5-ADAM) on the Asian dust and meteorological variables related to the dust generation for the period of 1991~2016. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction skill of those variables depending on the combination of the initial dates in the sub-seasonal scale for the dust source region affecting South Korea. The Asian dust and meteorological variables (10 m wind speed, 1.5 m relative humidity, and 1.5 m air temperature) from GloSea5-ADAM were compared to that from Synoptic observation and European Centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis v5, respectively, based on Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) as evaluation criteria. In general, the Asian dust and meteorological variables in the source region showed high ACC in the prediction scale within one month. For all variables, the use of the initial dates closest to the prediction month led to the best performances based on MBE, RMSE, and ACC, and the performances could be improved by adjusting the number of ensembles considering the combination of the initial date. ACC was as high as 0.4 in Spring when using the closest two initial dates. In particular, the GloSea5-ADAM shows the best performance of Asian dust generation with an ACC of 0.60 in the occurrence frequency of Asian dust in March when using the closest initial dates for initial conditions.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.124-133
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• 2022

With the development of hardware technology and the advancement of numerical model methods, more precise weather forecasts can be carried out. In this paper, we propose a Unicon Optimization scheme combining Loop Vectorization, Dependency Vectorization, and Code Modernization to optimize and increase Maintainability the Unicon source contained in SCAM, a simplified version of CESM, and present an overall SCAM structure. This paper tested the unicorn optimization scheme in the SCAM structure, and compared to the existing source code, the loop vectorization resulted in a performance improvement of 3.086% and the dependency vectorization of 0.4572%. And in the case of Unicorn Optimization, which applied all of these, the performance improvement was 3.457% compared to the existing source code. This proves that the Unicorn Optimization technique proposed in this paper provides excellent performance.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.289-289
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• 2023

4차산업 혁명이 도래한 이후로 전세계적으로 AI 기술이 유래 없는 속도로 발달 및 활용되고 있으며, 다양한 분야에서 AI 기법을 도입한 연구가 활발히 진행 중에 있다. 최근 수자원 분야에서는 단기 강우 예측, 댐 유입량 예측 및 하천 수위 예측 등의 분야에서 AI 기술이 접목되어 꾸준한 기술 개발이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 단변량으로 축척된 자료를 활용하여 중·장기 모형 개발 연구가 다수 진행되고 있지만, 급격한 기후변화 현상과 복잡한 매커니즘을 보이고 있는 기상현상의 경우 단변량 분석으로서는 정확도가 저하 될 수 있는 우려가 있는 것이 현실이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 상기에 제시된 단점을 극복하고자 다양한 기상자료를 검증·예측인자로 활용함과 동시에 Deeplearning 모형과 결합하여 신뢰성 있는 단기 강수 예측이 가능한 모형을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 유럽중기예보센터(ECMWF, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)에서 제공하고 있는 ERA5 재해석 자료를 활용하였으며, Deeplearning 모형과 결합하여 단기 강우 예측이 가능한 모형을 개발하였다. 1차적으로 격자자료(25km×25km)로 제공되고 있는 ERA5 자료를 상세화(downscaling) 모형에 적용하여 기상청 관측소와 비교·검증하였으며, Deeplearning 모형을 통해 단기 예측이 가능한 모형으로 확장하였다. 이때 Deeplearning의 다양한 모형 중 시계열 분석에 있어 예측 성능이 높은 LSTM 모형을 활용하였으며, 제공되고 있는 대기 변수의 상호관계를 노드간 연결을 통해 결과의 정확도와 신뢰성을 확보하였다. 본 연구 결과는 기관별로 제공하고 있는 예측 수준을 상회하는 결과를 도출하였으며, 홍수기에 집중되는 강우량을 예측하여 대비·대책을 선제적으로 마련할 수 있는 자료로써의 활용성이 높을 것으로 사료된다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.307-317
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• 2023

This study investigates the physical mechanisms that contributed to the 2022 European record-breaking heatwave throughout May-August (MJJA). The European climate has experienced surface warming and drying in the recent decade (1979~2022) which influences the development of the 2022 European heatwave. Since its spatial pattern resembles the 2003 European heatwave which is a well-known case developed by the strong coupling of near-surface conditions to land surface processes, the 2022 heatwave is compared with the 2003 case. Understanding heatwave development is carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and daily maximum surface temperature released by NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) CPC (Climate Prediction Center). The results suggest that the persistent high pressure along with clear sky tends to increase the downward shortwave radiation which leads to enhanced sensible heat flux with the land surface dryness. Terrestrial Coupling Index (TCI), a process-based multivariate metric, is employed to quantitatively measure segmented feedback processes, separately for the land, atmosphere, and two-legged couplings, which appears to the development of the 2022 heatwave, can be viewed as an expression of the recent trends, amplified by internal land-atmosphere interactions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.27-37
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• 2022

The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) forecast system was extended to assimilate Horizontal Line-Of-Sight (HLOS) wind observations from the Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) on board the Atmospheric Dynamic Mission (ADM)-Aeolus satellite. Quality control procedures were developed to assess the HLOS wind data quality, and observation operators added to the KIM three-dimensional variational data assimilation system to support the new observed variables. In a global cycling experiment, assimilation of ALADIN observations led to reductions in average root-mean-square error of 2.1% and 1.3% for the zonal and meridional wind analyses when compared against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) analyses. Even though the observable variable is wind, the assimilation of ALADIN observation had an overall positive impact on the analyses of other variables, such as temperature and specific humidity. As a result, the KIM 72-hour wind forecast fields were improved in the Southern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.11-17
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• 2022

The high wind wave alert has a great impact on ships and maritime service workers navigating in the vicinity of Korea. This study aims to evaluate the appropriateness of the high wind wave alert by comparing and analyzing the observation data of major marine meteorological buoys with the high wind wave alerts in the coastal sea and offshore of the West Sea, South Sea, and the East Sea announced by the Korea Meteorological Administration for the past 11 years(2010-2020). As a result of comparing the daily, monthly, and annual statistics of the high wind wave alert and marine meteorological buoy observation data for each sea area by annual, monthly, and seasonal average, the accuracy of high wind wave alerts was very low across the entire sea area. In particular, it was analyzed that the accuracy in the coastal sea of the South Sea and Jejudo was the lowest in winter. It was confirmed that the accuracy of marine weather forecasts and alerts needs to be improved when considering the effects of the high wind wave alerts on fishing vessels, passenger ships operations and tourism, and marine leisure activities.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.251-259
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• 2024

Fine particulate matter, especially PM2.5 with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, poses significant health and economic risks. This study focuses on the Seoul region of South Korea, aiming to analyze PM2.5 data and trends from 2017 to 2022 and develop a mid-term prediction model for PM2.5 concentrations. Utilizing collected and produced air quality and weather data, reanalysis data, and numerical model prediction data, this research proposes an ensemble evaluation method capable of adapting to trend changes. The ensemble method proposed in this study demonstrated superior performance in predicting PM2.5 concentrations, outperforming existing models by an average F1 Score of approximately 42.16% in 2019, 58.92% in 2021, and 34.79% in 2022 for future 3 to 6-day predictions. The model maintains performance under changing environmental conditions, offering stable predictions and presenting a mid-term prediction model that extends beyond the capabilities of existing deep learning-based short-term PM2.5 forecasts.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.93-98
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• 2016

For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.248-266
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to create a checklist for each type of disaster and to suggest a method for establishing an appropriate response system and making accurate and rapid decision-making. Method: In order to derive checklist factors, previous case analyses (Tropical Storm Rusa (2002), Typhoon Maemi (2003), and Typhoon Chaba (2016) were conducted for typhoon disaster. Grouping was conducted to derive checklist factors by analyzing general status (climate and weather) information and characteristics by case. Result: The case study was divided into national level and county level. In terms of national unit, eight forecasts were included: weather forecast, typhoon landing status, typhoon intensity, typhoon radius, central pressure, heavy rain conditions, movement speed, and route. Local governments should reflect regional characteristics, focusing on the presence or absence of similar typhoons (paths) in the past, typhoon landing time, regional characteristics, population density, prior disaster recovery, recent disaster occurrence history, secondary damage, forecast warning system. A total of eight items were derived. Conclusion: In the event of a disaster, decision making will be faster if the checklist proposed in this study is used and applied. In addition, it can be used as the basic data for disaster planners' response plans in case of disasters, and it is expected to be a more clear and quick disaster preparedness and response because it reflects local characteristics.