• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weather factor

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Flood Forecasting and Warning System using Real-Time Hydrologic Observed Data from the Jungnang Stream Basin (실시간 수문관측자료에 의한 돌발 홍수예경보 시스템 -중랑천 유역을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Jong-Tae;Seo, Kyung-A;Hur, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.51-65
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    • 2010
  • We suggest a simple and practical flood forecasting and warning system, which can predict change in the water level of a river in a small to medium-size watershed where flash flooding occurs in a short time. We first choose the flood defense target points, through evaluation of the flood risk of dike overflow and lowland inundation. Using data on rainfall, and on the water levels at the observed and prediction points, we investigate the interrelations and derive a regression formula from which we can predict the flood level at the target points. We calculate flood water levels through a calibrated flood simulation model for various rainfall scenarios, to overcome the shortage of real water stage data, and these results as basic population data are used to derive a regression formula. The values calculated from the regression formula are modified by the weather condition factor, and the system can finally predict the flood stages at the target points for every leading time. We also investigate the applicability of the prediction procedure for real flood events of the Jungnang Stream basin, and find the forecasting values to have close agreement with the surveyed data. We therefore expect that this suggested warning scheme could contribute usefully to the setting up of a flood forecasting and warning system for a small to medium-size river basin.

A Study on Evacuation Time According to Seafarer Visibility (선원들의 가시거리별 피난시간 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Ouk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.600-606
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    • 2016
  • Seafarers are often placed in circumstances that require emergency evacuations due to various causes, including ship collisions, sinking, stranding, and fires. Achieving shorter evacuation time is an important factor in increasing the survival rate during these circumstances, but the narrow and complicated structure of ships is an obstacle when it comes to executing a quick evacuation. Also, unpredictable restrictions may be imposed by bad sea or weather. In this study, various experiments were conducted with sailors currently on board ships in order to examine factors that increase evacuation time. The data was then and analyzed. Evacuation time was measured by dividing crews into groups: sailors that were given an explanation of the ship's structure and those that were not. Furthermore, the visibility range was divided into 0 m, 3 m, and 5 m. The results indicated that, having an explanation of the ship structure did not have much of an effect on evacuation time but visibility conditions led to an increase in evacuation time with a maximum of 2.5 to 2.6 times longer when the visible distance was 5 m, 0 m and 3 m. Therefore, ensuring a visible distance of over 5 m was determined to be the most important factor for reducing evacuation time. In the future, effort should be made to ensure a greater visible distance to improve the survival rate of seafarers and passengers on board ships that encounter incidents.

A study on the estimation of onion's bulb weight using multi-level model (다층모형을 활용한 양파 구중 추정 연구)

  • Kim, Junki;Choi, Seung-cheon;Kim, Jaehwi;Seo, Hong-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.763-776
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    • 2020
  • Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.

Modeling Traffic Accident Characteristics and Severity Related to Drinking-Driving (음주교통사고 영향요인과 심각도 분석을 위한 모형설정)

  • Jang, Taeyoun;Park, Hyunchun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6D
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    • pp.577-585
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    • 2010
  • Traffic accidents are caused by several factors such as drivers, vehicles, and road environment. It is necessary to investigate and analyze them in advance to prevent similar and repetitive traffic accidents. Especially, the human factor is most significant element and traffic accidents by drinking-driving caused from human factor have become social problem to be paid attention to. The study analyzes traffic accidents resulting from drinking-driving and the effects of driver's attributes and environmental factors on them. The study is composed as two parts. First, the log-linear model is applied to analyze that accidents by drinking or non-drinking driving associate with road geometry, weather condition and personal characteristics. Probability is tested for drinking-driving accidents relative to non-drinking drive accidents. The study analyzes probability differences between genders, between ages, and between kinds of vehicles through odds multipliers. Second, traffic accidents related to drinking are classified into property damage, minor injury, heavy injury, and death according to their severity. Heavy injury is more serious than minor one and death is more serious than heavy injury. The ordinal regression models are established to find effecting factors on traffic accident severity.

A Study on the Use of GIS-based Time Series Spatial Data for Streamflow Depletion Assessment (하천 건천화 평가를 위한 GIS 기반의 시계열 공간자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • YOO, Jae-Hyun;KIM, Kye-Hyun;PARK, Yong-Gil;LEE, Gi-Hun;KIM, Seong-Joon;JUNG, Chung-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.50-63
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    • 2018
  • The rapid urbanization had led to a distortion of natural hydrological cycle system. The change in hydrological cycle structure is causing streamflow depletion, changing the existing use tendency of water resources. To manage such phenomena, a streamflow depletion impact assessment technology to forecast depletion is required. For performing such technology, it is indispensable to build GIS-based spatial data as fundamental data, but there is a shortage of related research. Therefore, this study was conducted to use the use of GIS-based time series spatial data for streamflow depletion assessment. For this study, GIS data over decades of changes on a national scale were constructed, targeting 6 streamflow depletion impact factors (weather, soil depth, forest density, road network, groundwater usage and landuse) and the data were used as the basic data for the operation of continuous hydrologic model. Focusing on these impact factors, the causes for streamflow depletion were analyzed depending on time series. Then, using distributed continuous hydrologic model based DrySAT, annual runoff of each streamflow depletion impact factor was measured and depletion assessment was conducted. As a result, the default value of annual runoff was measured at 977.9mm under the given weather condition without considering other factors. When considering the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, along with the change in land use and development, and annual runoff were measured at 1,003.5mm, 942.1mm, 961.9mm, 915.5mm, and 1003.7mm, respectively. The results showed that the major causes of the streaflow depletion were lowered soil depth to decrease the infiltration volume and surface runoff thereby decreasing streamflow; the increased forest density to decrease surface runoff; the increased road network to decrease the sub-surface flow; the increased groundwater use from undiscriminated development to decrease the baseflow; increased impervious areas to increase surface runoff. Also, each standard watershed depending on the grade of depletion was indicated, based on the definition of streamflow depletion and the range of grade. Considering the weather, the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, and the change in land use and development, the grade of depletion were 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 2.3, 2.8, 2.2, respectively. Among the five streamflow depletion impact factors except rainfall condition, the change in groundwater usage showed the biggest influence on depletion, followed by the change in forest density, road construction, land use, and soil depth. In conclusion, it is anticipated that a national streamflow depletion assessment system to be develop in the future would provide customized depletion management and prevention plans based on the system assessment results regarding future data changes of the six streamflow depletion impact factors and the prospect of depletion progress.

Properties of Temperature Reduction of Cooling Asphalt Pavements Using High-Reflectivity Paints (고반사 도료를 사용한 차열성 아스팔트 도로포장의 온도저감특성)

  • Hong, Chang Woo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.317-327
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    • 2013
  • Air pollution and artificial heat of urban areas have caused the urban heat island in which asphalt pavements absorb solar heat during the daytime and release the heat at night. Hence, in order to improve the environment of urban areas, it is necessary to examine cooling pavements that can reduce heat on road pavements in urban areas. The application of temperature insulation paints on road pavements require to reduce black brightness for visibility, to increase the reflection rate of infrared light and minimize the reflection rate of visible light. In the study, one part of Acrylic-emulsion was used as a main binder, and the changes in black brightness and the changes of addition ratio (0%, 15%, 30%) of hollow ceramics, as well as kinds of paints (carbon black pigment, mixed mineral pigment) were selected as the main experimental factors. The performance of temperature reduction of cooling pavements was analyzed through the reflection rate of spectrum, the reflection rate of solar heat, and the lamp test. Abrasion resistance, UV accelerated weather resistance, and sliding resistance were tested in real situations. In addition, the performance of heat reduction of testing pavements covered with high-reflection paints was analyzed by using an infrared camera. As the test results, when using mixed mineral paints and hollow ceramic of 30%, the reflection rate of spectrum was 43% in the area of near-infrared ray and 17% in the area of visible light at black brightness of $L^*$=42.89 and the reflection rate of solar heat was 27.5%. Total color difference was ${\Delta}E$=0.27 in the test of UV Accelerated Weather Resistance, indicating almost no changes in color. BPN was more than 53 when scattering #2 and #4 silica sand of more than $0.12kg/m^2$. In Taber's abrasion resistance test, abrasion loss was up to 86.4mg at 500 rotations. The performance of heat reduction was evaluated using an infrared camera at the test section applying high-reflection paints to asphalt pavements, in which the results showed that the temperature was reduced by $12.7^{\circ}C$ on CI-30-40 cooling pavements ($L^*$=38.76) and by $14.2^{\circ}C$ on CI-30-60 cooling pavements ($L^*$=57.12).

Evaluation of Air Ion According to the Distance in Large Flat Park - Focused on Olympic Park in Songpa-gu, Seoul - (대규모 평지형 공원 내 거리별 공기이온 평가 - 서울시 송파구 올림픽공원을 사례로 -)

  • Kim, Jeong Ho;Lee, Sang Hoon;Lee, Myung-Hun;Yoon, Yong Han
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.491-499
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    • 2020
  • Increasing impervious surfaces can cause various physical and mental illnesses as well as further problems like deterioration of the thermal environment and disconnection of the water circulation system in the downtown area. This study is intended to suggest baseline data for the future creation or remodelation of large-scaled urban parks in consideration of human health on the aspect of climate by analyzing air ions condition and correlation analysis between air ions and meteorological elements depending on distances from the center in the urban park. The study site was divided into four types by distances from the center of Olympic Park in Songpa-gu, Seoul, then classified as A and B. After selecting 80 points to record, land coverage and vegetation status were investigated, and then meteorological elements and air ions were measured. First, the green space rate by section is A section Center (90%)> Inner (70%)> Outer-inner (10%) = Outer (10%), B section Center (100%)> Inner (60%)> Outer- In order of inner (30%)> Outer (0%). Second, for weather factors, the temperature was analyzed by Outer (24.18℃) > Outer-inner (22.90℃) > Inner (22.43℃) > Center (21.719℃). For relative humidity, center (46.49%) > Inner (43.36%) > Outer-inner (42.41%) > Outer (38.53%) was analyzed. Third, In the case of cations in the air ions, Outer(435.71ea/㎤) > Outer-inner(415.16ea/㎤) > Inner (389.46ea/㎤) > Center (352.64ea/㎤). In the case of negative ions, Center (569.72ea/㎤) > Inner (499.83ea/㎤) > Outer-inner(410.58ea/㎤) > Outer (292.02ea/㎤). It was analyzed to increase toward Center, and analyzed to decrease with increasing distance from road. For the Air ion index, it was analyzed as Center (1.67) > Inner (1.31) > Outer-inner (1.08) > Outer (0.71). Negative irons was analyzed to increase when its measuring points close to the center and decrease with shortening distance to the road. Fourth, as a result of correlation analysis, positive(+) correlation is negative ions and ion index. These were measured to increase as the recording points closing to the center of the park from the road. The negative(-) correlation is temperature, solar radiation, and positive ions. These increased as getting closer to the road.

A STUDY ON THE FIVE ELEMENT THEORY INTODUCED (<황제내경(黃帝內經)>에 유입(流入)된 오행학설(五行學說)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Boo-Hwan;Park, Hyun-Kook
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.1
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    • pp.161-191
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is how have the form and theory of the five element theory in the (黃帝內徑) by the investigation of the course of the course of the five element introduced the ancient oriental medicine from ancient oriental philosophy. The following results were obtained. 1. The five elements in (尙書) meaned the uses of water, fire, earth, wood, metal which were important in living. Because these had very important meaning in ancient political and economic society, emphasized to big law(洪範) 2. The five elements in (左傳) and (國語) mean the five uses too, and there are the phases of "five win metal"(火勝金) and "wather win fire"(水勝火), but these only meaned the physical interrelation. 3. In the five circulating factor theory made by Chu Yen(鄒衍) which have the attribute of the five elements, he more reasonably had argued human affairs like that a dynasty become different in step with the circulating five favors. There is the regular annual policy in the (呂氏春秋) which closely connected nature and human living, and attached the various colors, animals, visceras, flavors, sounds, the sexagenary cycle and so on to the five elements. 4. In the (春秋繁露) writed in fore-period of Han(漢) dynasty, the interactions of the five elements are concretely applicated to policy, Dong Jung Soe(童仲舒) had discrived the interactions of the five elements by Dong Lyu Sang Dong theory(同類相動說) and the misfortune theory(災異說), emphasized the sympathy of nature and human. Thought there is many content which are superstitious and contradictory, I concider which that affcted many effects in the formation of five element theory of oriental medicine. In the (淮南子) the order of matters were explained by the five element theory too, as the interrelations of the five elements were explained by the sexagenary ctcle, I assume that the bud of O-Un theory(五運理論). And there was not founded the fullscale intriduction of the five element theory in the Ma Wang Tye(馬王堆) excavated finds, the Mu Yyi medical writings formed the dynasty(武威漢代醫簡) and the documents about Pyun Jak(偏鵲) and Sun U Ie(淳于意). 5. The application of the five element theory in the (Whang Di Nei Qing) (黃帝內徑) is devided into the attachement to the five elements, the interelations of the five elments, and Un Gi theery(運氣論). In the attachment to the five elemeant theory, it made the attachment of the five viseras of (今文尙書) party a standard and attached the sections of a human body, the whole internal organs of sense, the five colors, the five flavors and the five sounds and so on to the five elements. It put to use by means of the apllivation of the interrelation of the five elements in the transferations of the diseases and the relative severeness of a disease in step with change of time and season. Un Gi theory(運氣論) which synthesized by the attachment to the five elements, the inter-relations of the five elements and the climate which observerd from ancient times systematically argued the effects of weather to human. 6. The application of the five elements theory in (黃帝內徑) have the significant what had get rid of irrational factors like that the emotion and action of human could to influense the weather, what had been formes more rational thingking by the obesrvation of human and nature. It is required more reserches about the possibility of the formation of the doctrinal faction bt the geographical effect of the Yon, Je(燕,薺) region, the application of the five element theory in other ancient medical books and the relationship of the five element theory and Yin Yang(陰陽)

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Ecological Importance of Water Budget and Synergistic Effects of Water Stress of Plants due to Air Pollution and Soil Acidification in Korea (한국에서 수분수지의 생태적 중요성과 대기오염 및 토양 산성화로 인한 식물의 수분스트레스 증대 효과)

  • 이창석;이안나
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2003
  • Korea has plentiful precipitation but rainfall events concentrate on several months of rainy season in her weather condition. Korea, therefore, experiences drought for a given period every year. Moreover the soil has usually low water holding capacity, as it is composed coarse particles originated from the granite. Response of several oaks and the Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) on water stress showed that water budget was significant factor determining vegetation distribution. In addition, dehydration level due to cold resistance mechanism of several evergreen plants during the winter season was closely related to their distribution in natural condition. Experimental result under water stress showed that the Korean red pine was very tolerant to desiccation but the seedlings showed high mortality during the dry season. The mortality tended to proportionate to soil moisture content of each site. A comparison between soil moisture content during June when it is severe dry season and moisture content of the culture soil when the pine seedlings reached the permanent wilting point due to water withheld proved that high mortality during the dry season was due to water deficit. Water potential of sample plants measured during the exposure experiment to the air pollutant showed a probability that water related factors would dominate the occurrence of visible damage and the tolerance level of sample plants. In both field survey and laboratory experiment, plants exposed to air pollution showed more rapid transpiration than those grown in the unpolluted condition. The result would due to injury of leaf surface by air pollutants. Aluminum (Al/sup 3+/) increased in the acid soil not only inhibits root growth but also leads to abnormal distribution of root system and thereby caused water stress. The water stresses due to air pollution and soil acidification showed a possibility that they play dominating roles in inducing forest decline additionally to the existing water deficit due to weather and soil conditions in Korea. Sludge, which can contribute to improve field capacity, as it is almost composed of organic matter, showed an effect ameliorating the retarded growth of plant in the acidified soil. The effect was not less than that of dolomite known in widely as such a soil ameliorator. Litter extract contributed also to mitigate the water stress due to toxic Al/sup 3+/. We prepared a model showing the potential interaction of multiple stresses, which can cause forest decline in Korea by synthesizing those results. Furthermore, we suggested restoration plans, which can mitigate such forest decline in terms of soil amelioration and vegetation restoration.

Abnormal Water Temperature Prediction Model Near the Korean Peninsula Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 한반도 근해 이상수온 예측모델)

  • Choi, Hey Min;Kim, Min-Kyu;Yang, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.265-282
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    • 2022
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) is a factor that greatly influences ocean circulation and ecosystems in the Earth system. As global warming causes changes in the SST near the Korean Peninsula, abnormal water temperature phenomena (high water temperature, low water temperature) occurs, causing continuous damage to the marine ecosystem and the fishery industry. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to predict the SST near the Korean Peninsula and prevent damage by predicting abnormal water temperature phenomena. The study area was set near the Korean Peninsula, and ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to utilize SST data at the same time period. As a research method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm specialized for time series data prediction among deep learning models was used in consideration of the time series characteristics of SST data. The prediction model predicts the SST near the Korean Peninsula after 1- to 7-days and predicts the high water temperature or low water temperature phenomenon. To evaluate the accuracy of SST prediction, Coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators were used. The summer (JAS) 1-day prediction result of the prediction model, R2=0.996, RMSE=0.119℃, MAPE=0.352% and the winter (JFM) 1-day prediction result is R2=0.999, RMSE=0.063℃, MAPE=0.646%. Using the predicted SST, the accuracy of abnormal sea surface temperature prediction was evaluated with an F1 Score (F1 Score=0.98 for high water temperature prediction in summer (2021/08/05), F1 Score=1.0 for low water temperature prediction in winter (2021/02/19)). As the prediction period increased, the prediction model showed a tendency to underestimate the SST, which also reduced the accuracy of the abnormal water temperature prediction. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to analyze the cause of underestimation of the predictive model in the future and study to improve the prediction accuracy.