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http://dx.doi.org/10.7780/kjrs.2022.38.3.4

Abnormal Water Temperature Prediction Model Near the Korean Peninsula Using LSTM  

Choi, Hey Min (Korea Ocean Satellite Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology)
Kim, Min-Kyu (Ocean Science and Technology School, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Yang, Hyun (Division of Maritime AI & Cyber Security, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Remote Sensing / v.38, no.3, 2022 , pp. 265-282 More about this Journal
Abstract
Sea surface temperature (SST) is a factor that greatly influences ocean circulation and ecosystems in the Earth system. As global warming causes changes in the SST near the Korean Peninsula, abnormal water temperature phenomena (high water temperature, low water temperature) occurs, causing continuous damage to the marine ecosystem and the fishery industry. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to predict the SST near the Korean Peninsula and prevent damage by predicting abnormal water temperature phenomena. The study area was set near the Korean Peninsula, and ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to utilize SST data at the same time period. As a research method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm specialized for time series data prediction among deep learning models was used in consideration of the time series characteristics of SST data. The prediction model predicts the SST near the Korean Peninsula after 1- to 7-days and predicts the high water temperature or low water temperature phenomenon. To evaluate the accuracy of SST prediction, Coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators were used. The summer (JAS) 1-day prediction result of the prediction model, R2=0.996, RMSE=0.119℃, MAPE=0.352% and the winter (JFM) 1-day prediction result is R2=0.999, RMSE=0.063℃, MAPE=0.646%. Using the predicted SST, the accuracy of abnormal sea surface temperature prediction was evaluated with an F1 Score (F1 Score=0.98 for high water temperature prediction in summer (2021/08/05), F1 Score=1.0 for low water temperature prediction in winter (2021/02/19)). As the prediction period increased, the prediction model showed a tendency to underestimate the SST, which also reduced the accuracy of the abnormal water temperature prediction. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to analyze the cause of underestimation of the predictive model in the future and study to improve the prediction accuracy.
Keywords
Sea surface temperature; High water temperature; Low water temperature; Long short-term memory;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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