• 상하수도학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.377-389
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• 2014

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The concepts was demonstrated through application to observed from water plant (A) in the South Korea. Various statistics (e.g. the efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, and a maximum error rate) were evaluated to investigate model efficiency. The ensemble based model with an cross-validate prediction procedure showed better predictability for water demand forecasting at different temporal resolutions. In particular, the performance of the ensemble model on hourly water demand data showed promising results against other individual prediction schemes.

• 물과 미래
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.111-122
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• 1983

오늘날 인구증가와 공업화, 도시화 및 수질오염등에 따라 용수수요가 급격히 증가하게 되었다. 본 연구에서는 목표연도인 2001년까지 5개권역에 대한 용수 수요량과 가용수자원량을 비교분석하여 적용확보 방안을 제시하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 얻어진 결과는 아래와 같다. 1) 월별 용수증가추세에 대응하여 지표수와 지하수로 공급함을 원칙으로 하되, 부족량에 대해서는 댐 공급량으로써 보충키로 한다. 또한 소요공급량은 공급에 앞서 완전 확보토록 하여야 한다. 2) 각 권역에서 월별 계절별 최대물부족량은 6월과 하계에 발생한다. 3) 물부족량이 댐 공급량을 초과하게 될 시기는 III권역에서 1984∼1990년 및 1994∼2001년이다. 4) III권역의 물부족량을 확보하기 위하여 영산강 유역의 마산 금호만하구언 완공년도를 2001년에서 1991년으로 앞당겨야 할 것이며, 섬진강 유역에서는 주암댐의 완공년도를 1991년에서 1986년으로 앞당기고 1986년까지는 유역변경에 의하여 섬진강 유역에서 물을 공급 받으면서 지하수 및 소규모 저수지 개발을 행하여야 할 것이다.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.646-648
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• 1999

Kalman Filter model of demand for residental water and consumption pattern were tested for their ability to explain the hourly residental demand for water in metropolitan distribution system. The hourly residental demand for water is calculated from the daily residental demand and consumption pattern. The consumption pattern which has 24 time rates is characterized by data granulization in accordance with season kind, weather and holiday. The proposed approach is applied to water distribution system of metropolitan areas in Korea and its effectiveness is checked.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.661-666
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• 2009

In this study, total organic carbon (TOC) and potassium permanganate ($KMnO_4$) demand were examined for raw and finished tap water and the range of $KMnO_4$ demand in drinking water was investigated. By analyzing the relationship between TOC and $KMnO_4$ demand, the applicability of TOC as a drinking water standard and its regulation level was proposed. The average $KMnO_4$ demand was 1.3 mg/L in 4,638 samples from finished drinking water, tap water and finished water from small facilities. $KMnO_4$ demand of 95% of samples was 2.9 mg/L which was 29% of the drinking water standard (10 mg/L). At 12 major drinking water treatment plants, the average $KMnO_4$ demand in July and August was 8.1 and 2.4 mg/L for raw and finished water, respectively. TOC in July and August was 2.0 and 1.15 mg/L for raw and finished water, respectively. The correlation coefficient between $KMnO_4$ demand and TOC was as high as 0.8 in both raw and finished water and $KMnO_4$ demand was twice of TOC in finished water. Because the correlation coefficient and ratio between $KMnO_4$ demand and TOC varied according to season and the characteristics of raw water, it would be difficult to establish TOC standard just from the ratio of $KMnO_4$ demand to TOC. However, it is possible to set the TOC range based on the accumulated $KMnO_4$ demand data or from the satisfactory correlation results. Then, it would be reasonable to establish TOC standard level as 4 ~ 5 mg/L.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.294-299
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• 2005

The agricultural water demand that is calculated in present is difference with practical one by various situations in field. And, by various change, agricultural water demand can not estimate by agricultural land area simply. Considering various situations in field, calculated practical agricultural water demand and applied it to Korea Water Evaluation And Planing System (K-WEAP) in this study. The studied area is Seongju. The studied results showed that agricultural water demand calculate about 5.8 percent higher than existing one, and the agricultural water demand that is applied to K-WEAP calculate about $4{\sim}5.5$ percent higher. Total Agricultural water demand increased about 0.5 percent until 2011.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.781-802
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• 2007

본 연구는 스톤-게리(Stone-Geary) 모형을 이용하여 서울시 가정용 생활용수의 수요를 추정하고 이에 근거하여 물 수요의 가격탄력성과 소득탄력성을 추정한다. 분석결과, 서울시 전체 가정용 물 소비량 중 기초소비가 차지하는 비중이 평균 84%로 나타났다. 가정에서 사용하는 월평균 물 소비량이 최근에는 $16{\sim}20m^3$ 이하인 점을 감안하면, 가격을 통한 실질적인 물 수요관리 효과를 도모하기 위해서는 구간요금체계의 최저 수준을 현재의 월 $30m^3$에서 월 $15m^3$ 정도로 축소 조정할 필요가 있다는 점을 발견하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.144-144
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• 2021

The rapid urbanization in many Asian countries has taken millions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated megacities, which eventually putting pressure on the existing water resources. The over-growing population and increasing living standard of people in the urban region of developed as well as developing countries such as Korea, China, Japan and India have witnessed a drastic change in terms of domestic water demand for the past few decades. In this study, we used the concept of potential surface water availability in the form of surface runoff for future vulnerability assessment. We focused on 42 megacities having population more than 5 million as per the United Nations (UN) census data 2020. The study shows that 30 out of 42 cities having more than 180L/p/d demand for domestic use based on various references. We have predicted the domestic water demand for all the cities on the basis of current per capita demand up to 2035 using UN projected population data. We found that the projected water demand in megacities such as Seoul, Busan, Shanghai, Ghuanzou are increasing because of high population as well as GDP growth rate. On the contrary, megacities of Japan considered in our stud shows less water demand in future due to decreasing trend of population. As per the past records provided by the local municipalities/authorities, we projected different scenarios based on the future supply for various megacities such as Chennai, Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Shanghai, Wuhan, etc. We found that the supply to demand ratio of these cities would be below 75% for future period and if such trend continues then the inhabitants will face serious water stress conditions. Outcomes of this study would help the local policy makers to adopt sustainable initiatives on urban water governance to avoid the severe water stress conditions in the vulnerable megacities.

• 대한환경공학회지
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• 제33권11호
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• pp.797-803
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 물 사용관련 주요 지표인 1인1일 급수량을 이용하여 수요관리 추진 결과 분석 및 절감량을 산정하고, 수요관리를 통하여 발생하는 절감량을 물 수급전망에 연계할 수 있는 시스템을 개발하였다. 1인1일 급수량 분석결과 상수도 여건이 열악한 지자체는 상수도 보급 개선이 선행되어야 하며, 장래용수수요량 추정시에도 이를 고려하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. 금강권역을 대상으로 수요관리 절감량을 산정하고 K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation And Planning System)을 이용하여 물수지분석을 수행한 결과 하천유량 변화 및 지하수와 저수지저수량 증가를 확인하였으며, 이는 다른 용도로 활용 가능하다고 판단된다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.581-589
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• 2011

Generally, treated water or raw water is transported into storage reservoirs which are receiving facilities of local governments from multi-regional water supply systems. A water supply control and operation center is operated not only to manage the water facilities more economically and efficiently but also to mitigate the shortage of water resources due to the increase in water consumption. To achieve the goal, important information such as the flow-rate in the systems, water levels of storage reservoirs or tanks, and pump-operation schedule should be considered based on the resonable water demand forecasting. However, it is difficult to acquire the pattern of water demand used in local government, since the operating information is not shared between multi-regional and local water systems. The pattern of water demand is irregular and unpredictable. Also, additional changes such as an abrupt accident and frequent changes of electric power rates could occur. Consequently, it is not easy to forecast accurate water demands. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a short-term water demands forecasting and to develop an application of the forecasting models. In this study, the forecasting simulator for water demand is developed based on mathematical and neural network methods as linear and non-linear models to implement the optimal water demands forecasting. It is shown that MLP(Multi-Layered Perceptron) and ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) can be applied to obtain better forecasting results in multi-regional water supply systems with a large scale and local water supply systems with small or medium scale than conventional methods, respectively.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.123-128
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• 2012

For optimal reservoir operation and management, there are essential elements including water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. To estimate agricultural water demand and supply, many factors such as weather, crops, soil, growing conditions cultivation method and the watershed/irrigation area should be considered, however, there are occurred water supply impossible duration under the influence of the variability and uncertainty of meteorological and hydrological phenomenon. Focusing on agricultural reservoir, amount and tendency of agricultural water supply and demand shows seasonally/regionally different patterns. Through the analysis of deviation and changes in the timing of the two elements, duration in excess of water supply can be identified quantitatively. Here, we introduce an approach to assessment of irrigation vulnerable duration for effective management of agricultural reservoir using time dependent change analysis of residual water supply and irrigation water requirements. Irrigation vulnerable duration has been determined through the comparison of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district based on the water budget analysis, therefore can be used as an improved and basis data for the effective and intensive water management.