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http://dx.doi.org/10.11001/jksww.2014.28.4.377

Evaluation of short-term water demand forecasting using ensemble model  

So, Byung-Jin (Chonbuk National University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Chonbuk National University)
Gu, Ja-Young (University of Seoul)
Na, Bong-Kil (K-water)
Kim, Byung-Seop (LSIS Co., Ltd.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater / v.28, no.4, 2014 , pp. 377-389 More about this Journal
Abstract
In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The concepts was demonstrated through application to observed from water plant (A) in the South Korea. Various statistics (e.g. the efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, and a maximum error rate) were evaluated to investigate model efficiency. The ensemble based model with an cross-validate prediction procedure showed better predictability for water demand forecasting at different temporal resolutions. In particular, the performance of the ensemble model on hourly water demand data showed promising results against other individual prediction schemes.
Keywords
ensemble model; demand forecasting; short-term forecasting; urban water demand;
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