• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.8
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• pp.673-683
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• 2015

The existing flood protection in rivers has shown the limitation due to the urbanization around rivers and the abnormal climate. Thus, the demand for the constructions of side-weir detention basin are being increased as a part of integrated watershed flood protection plan. It is necessary to estimate the quantitative flood-control effect for including the side-weir detention basin in flood-control measures. For the determination, it is required to reduce the uncertainty of the design factors which can affect the flood-control effect of side-weir detention basin. Among the factors, however, the water level in river always contains uncertainty. Therefore, the design method considering the uncertainty is required. For the reasons, the design method considering uncertainty of the water level in river is suggested in this study with using the length of side-weir which is relatively easy-determinable by designers. Therefore, it is examined how the variation of the length of side-weir can affect the flood-control effect, using HEC-RAS, and then the method to determine the side-weir length considering the uncertainty of the water level in river through results from analyses. Since the uncertainty of the water level in river can be taken into account in the suggested design method, it is evaluated that the design method is more effective to suggest the flood-control effect of the side-weir type detention basin with higher safety side.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.311-331
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• 2021

Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.114-114
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• 2020

Water contamination in a water distribution network (WDN) is harmful since it directly induces the consumer's health problem and suspends water service in a wide area. Actions need to be taken rapidly to countermeasure a contamination event. A contaminant source ident ification (CSI) is an important initial step to mitigate the harmful event. Here, a CSI approach focused on determining the contaminant intrusion possible location and time (PLoT) is introduced. One of the methods to discover the PLoT is an inverse calculation to connect all the paths leading to the report specification of a sensor. A filtering procedure is then applied to narrow down the PLoT using the results from individual sensors. First, we spatially reduce the suspect intrusion points by locating the highly suspicious nodes that have similar intrusion time. Then, we narrow the possible intrusion time by matching the suspicious intrusion time to the reported information. Finally, a likelihood-score is estimated for each suspect. Another important aspect that needs to be considered in CSI is that there are inherent uncertainties, such as the variations in user demand and inaccuracy of sensor data. The uncertainties can lead to overlooking the real intrusion point and time. To reflect the uncertainties in the CSI process, the Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to explore the ranges of PLoT. By analyzing all the accumulated scores through the random sets, a spread of contaminant intrusion PLoT can then be identified in the network.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.19-28
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• 2020

This study proposed a simple estimation method for irrigation return flow from paddy fields using the water balance model. The merit of this method is applicability to other paddy fields irrigated from agricultural reservoirs due to the simplicity compared with the previous monitoring based estimation method. It was assumed that the unused amount of irrigation water was the return flow which included the quick and delayed return flows. The amount of irrigation supply from a reservoir was estimated from the reservoir water balance with the storage rate and runoff model. It was also assumed that the infiltration was the main source of the delayed return flow and that the other delayed return flow was neglected. In this study, the amount of reservoir inflow and water demand from paddy field are calculated on a daily basis, and irrigation supply was calculated on 10-day basis, taking into account the uncertainty of the model and the reliability of the data. The regression rate was calculated on a yearly basis, and yearly data was computed by accumulating daily and 10-day data, considering that the recirculating water circulation cycle was relatively long. The proposed method was applied to the paddy blocks of the Jamhong and Seosan agricultural reservoirs and the results were acceptable.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.105-115
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• 2003

The computation model which evaluates combined hydraulic and mechanical reliability, is developed to analyze the integrated reliability in water distribution system. The hydraulic reliability is calculated by considering uncertain variables like water demand, hydraulic pressure, pipe roughness as random variables according to proper distribution type. The mechanical reliability is evaluated by analyzing the effect of pipe network with sequential failure of network components. The result of this study model applied to the real pipe network shows that this model can be used to simulate the uncertain factors effectively in real pipe network. Therefore, The pipe-line engineers can design and manage the network system with more quantitative reliability, through applying this model to reliable pipe network design and diagnosis of existing systems.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.129-156
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• 2012

This study analyzes the contribution to the national economy of the stable water supply through managing multi-purpose dam. For the analysis, we consider 17 major multi-purpose dams and build a CGE model with summer water and winter water being the production factors as the base year of 2007. We analyze the economic impact of meeting water demand due to the dam management and estimate the risk premium of reducing the uncertainty of water supply. The analysis results show a significant production decrease in the industries of agriculture, forestry and fisheries and tap water as well as the food and beverage industry using the former industries' output as intermediates in the production and show an production increase largely in steel industry and electronic and electrical industries. Being compared to the benchmark solution, GNP is analyzed as being reduced by 0.22~0.68%. Meanwhile, the risk premium is estimated to be about 4 billion to 24 billion won for the value 01 the measure of relative risk aversion in the range 01 0.5 to 3.0.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.58 no.3
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• pp.396-407
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• 2020

As fossil fuels are depleted worldwide, alternative resources is required to replace fossil fuels, and biofuels are in the spotlight as alternative resources. Biofuels are produced from biomass, which is a renewable resource to produce biofuels or bio-chemicals. Especially, in order to substitute fossil fuels, the research focusing the biofuel (biodiesel) production based on CO₂ and biomass achieves more attention recently. To produce biomass-based biodiesel, the development of a supply chain network is required considering the amounts of feedstocks (ex, CO₂ and water) required producing biodiesel, potential locations and capacities of bio-refineries, and transportations of biodiesel produced at biorefineries to demand cities. Although many studies of the biomass-based biodiesel supply chain network are performed, there are few types of research handled the uncertainty in CO₂ supply which influences the optimal strategies of microalgae-based biodiesel production. Because CO₂, which is used in the production of microalgae-based biodiesel as one of important resources, is captured from the off-gases emitted in power plants, the uncertainty in CO₂ supply from power plants has big impacts on the optimal configuration of the biodiesel supply chain network. Therefore, in this study, to handle those issues, we develop the two-stage stochastic model to determine the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertainty in CO₂ supply. The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the expected total cost of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertain CO₂ supply as well as satisfy diesel demands at each city. This model conducted a case study satisfying 10% diesel demand in the Republic of Korea. The overall cost of the stochastic model (US$ 12.9/gallon·y) is slightly higher (23%) than that of the deterministic model (US$ 10.5/gallon·y). Fluctuations in CO₂ supply (stochastic model) had a significant impact on the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply network.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socioeconomic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.32-40
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• 1994

A digital control system for the steam generator oater level control is developed using the optimal control technique. To describe the more realistic situation, a feedwater valve actuator of the first order lag is included in the overall control system. The optimal gains are obtained by the LQ method which imposes the constraints on the feedwater valve motion as well as on the deviation between the input demand signal and the output feedwater. Developed also is a Kalman observer on account of the flow measurement uncertainty at low power. And a digital controller on the feedback loop is designed which makes the system maintain the same stability margins for all power ranges. The simulation results show that the optimal digital system has good control characteristics despite the adverse dynamics of the steam generator at low power.