• Title/Summary/Keyword: Value estimation

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On Efficient Estimation of the Extreme Value Index with Good Finite-Sample Performance

  • Yun, Seokhoon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 1999
  • Falk(1994) showed that the asymptotic efficiency of the Pickands estimator of the extreme value index $\beta$ can considerably be improved by a simple convex combination. In this paper we propose an alternative estimator of $\beta$ which is as asymptotically efficient as the optimal convex combination of the Pickands estimators but has a better finite-sample performance. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimator and the optimal convex combination estimator.

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Estimation for the extreme value distribution under progressive Type-I interval censoring

  • Nam, Sol-Ji;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.643-653
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we propose some estimators for the extreme value distribution based on the interval method and mid-point approximation method from the progressive Type-I interval censored sample. Because log-likelihood function is a non-linear function, we use a Taylor series expansion to derive approximate likelihood equations. We compare the proposed estimators in terms of the mean squared error by using the Monte Carlo simulation.

Parameter Estimation and Prediction for NHPP Software Reliability Model and Time Series Regression in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang-Yoon;Chang, In-Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2014
  • We consider the mean value function for NHPP software reliability model and time series regression model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from two data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from two data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual two data sets using the mean value function and regression curve.

Estimation and Performance Analysis of Risk Measures using Copula and Extreme Value Theory (코퓰러과 극단치이론을 이용한 위험척도의 추정 및 성과분석)

  • Yeo, Sung-Chil
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.481-504
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    • 2006
  • VaR, a tail-related risk measure is now widely used as a tool for a measurement and a management of financial risks. For more accurate measurement of VaR, recently we are particularly concerned about the approach based on extreme value theory rather than the traditional method based on the assumption of normal distribution. However, many studies about the approaches using extreme value theory was done only for the univariate case. In this paper, we discuss portfolio risk measurements with modelling multivariate extreme value distributions by combining copulas and extreme value theory. We also discuss the estimation of ES together with VaR as portfolio risk measures. Finally, we investigate the relative superiority of EVT-copula approach than variance-covariance method through the back-testing of an empirical data.

Estimation of the Economic Value of Pumped Storage Power Generation in Korea (양수발전의 비시장 가치 추정)

  • Won, DooHwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.263-275
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study estimated the non-market value of pumped storage power generation using the contingent valuation method(CVM). Design/methodology/approach - CVM, a non-market value estimation method, was used. The perception of pumped storage power generation and the willingness to pay(WTP) for pumped storage power generation were investigated among 612 randomly selected households. Findings - It was analyzed that the average value per household was 7309.99 won/month, and the sources of these benefits were 1819.37 won due to the improvement of power generation efficiency, 1320.48 won due to the improvement of power system reliability, 2359.24 won due to the stabilization of electricity rates, 2110.89 won due to water resource management It was assumed that a circle occurred. If the average monthly benefit per household is expanded to cover countries across the country, it is estimated that the annual value to our society from pumped storage power generation will be KRW 1.796.6 trillion. Research implications or Originality - It is necessary to consider the operation of pumped-water power generation by reflecting the value of pumped-up power generation that is not evaluated in the market. Since Korea's electricity market is isolated in a state where it is impossible to connect with other countries, it may be vulnerable to a stable electricity operation system. Therefore, there is a need for a facility that can stably secure reserve power and produce power quickly when necessary. If pumped-water power generation is actively used for power operation, a more stable power system can be secured.

A Study on the Derivation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Adjustment Factor in the Software Cost Estimation Guidelines (소프트웨어 사업대가기준 보정계수의 유도 및 민감도 분석)

  • Byun, Boon-Hee;Kwon, Ki-Tae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.15D no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2008
  • One of the most significant tasks of software development project is to know how much it will be the software development cost in the early stage of software development cycle. The software development environment and technology are changing very rapidly. For accuracy, we should apply those to the software cost estimation. And it is important that we select the suitable adjustment factor and the value of a suitable adjustment factor. For that, this paper have applied the method of AHP. And we have also analyzed the sensitivity of the adjustment factor which is influenced by decision metrics. In conclusion, the value of the application type adjustment factor is responded more sensitively to the data complexity and the control complexity than processing complexity. And the value of the language adjustment factor is responded more sensitively to the supplying manpower and the time of the coding than the time of the debugging. In the future, we will research the selection of an additional adjustment factor and a suitable value of the adjustment factor which are influenced by the environment and the technology of the domestic software development. And then, in the language adjustment factor, we will try to calculate the value about the individual programming language.

DC-Link Capacitance Estimation using Support Vector Regression in AC/DC/AC PWM Converters (SVR을 이용한 AC/DC/AC PWM 컨버터의 직류링크 커패시턴스 추정)

  • Ahmed G. Abo-Khalil;Jang, Jeong-Ik;Lee, Dong-Choon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2007
  • This paper proposes a new capacitance estimation scheme for a DC-link capacitor in a three-phase AC/DC/AC PWM converter. A controlled AC voltage with a lower frequency than the line frequency is injected into the DC-link voltage, which then causes AC power ripples at the DC side. By extracting the AC voltage and power components on the DC output side using digital filters, the capacitance can then be calculated using the Support Vector Regression (SVR). By training of SVR, a function which relates a given input (capacitor's power) and its corresponding output (capacitance value) can be derived. This function is used to predict outputs for given inputs that are not included in the training set. The proposed method does not require the information of DC-link current and can be simply implemented with only software and no additional hardware. Experimental results confirm that the estimation error is less than 0.16%.

Seismic damage estimation of reinforced concrete framed structures affected by chloride-induced corrosion

  • Anoop, M.B.;Rao, K. Balaji
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.851-873
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    • 2015
  • A methodology for estimation of statistical properties (viz. mean and standard deviation) of the expected seismic damage to reinforced concrete framed structures subject to corrosion of reinforcement, over a specified reference time (typically the service life of the structure) is proposed in this paper. The damage to the structure under the earthquake loading is characterised by the damage index, determined using the modified Park and Ang damage model. The reduction in area, yield strength and strain at ultimate of steel reinforcement, and the reduction in compressive strength of cover concrete due to corrosion are taken into account in the estimation of damage. The proposed methodology is illustrated through an example problem. From the results obtained, it is noted that there is an increase of about 70% in the mean value of expected seismic damage to the reinforced concrete frame considered over a reference time of 30 years when effect of corrosion is taken into consideration. This indicates that there is a need to consider the effect of corrosion of reinforcement on the estimation of expected seismic damage.

A Study on The State Estimation of The Time-Invariant Linear Systems via The Improved Parameter Estimation Method for The Block Pulse Coefficients (개선된 블록 펄스 계수 추정 기법을 이용한 선형 시불변계의 상태 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tai-Hoon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Chung, Je-Wook;Sim, Jae-Seon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2002
  • Because Block Pulse functions are used in a variety of fields such as the analysis and controller design of systems, it is necessary to find the more exact value of the Block Pulse series coefficients. This paper presents a method for the state estimation of the time-invariant linear systems via the improved estimation method for the Block Pulse coefficients by using the Simpson's rule. The proposed method using the Simpson's rule improve the accuracy of the Block Pulse coefficients.

Development of Energy Consumption Estimation Model Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석을 활용한 하수처리시설 에너지 소비량 예측모델 개발)

  • Shin, Won-Jae;Jung, Yong-Jun;Kim, Ye-Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.11
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    • pp.1443-1450
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    • 2015
  • Wastewater treatment plant(WWTP) has been recognized as a high energy consuming plant. Usually many WWTPs has been operated in the excessive operation conditions in order to maintain stable wastewater treatment. The energy required at WWTPs consists of various subparts such as pumping, aeration, and office maintenance. For management of energy comes from process operation, it can be useful to operators to provide some information about energy variations according to the adjustment of operational variables. In this study, multiple regression analysis was used to establish an energy estimation model. The independent variables for estimation energy were selected among operational variables. The $R^2$ value in the regression analysis appeared 0.68, and performance of the electric power prediction model had less than ${\pm}5%$ error.