• Title/Summary/Keyword: Value estimation

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The Effect of Slope-based Curve Number Adjustment on Direct Runoff Estimation by L-THIA (경사도에 따른 CN보정에 의한 L-THIA 직접유출 모의 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Jonggun;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Park, Younshik;Heo, Sunggu;Park, Joonho;Ahn, Jaehun;Kim, Ki-sung;Choi, Joongdae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.897-905
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    • 2007
  • Approximately 70% of Korea is composed of forest areas. Especially 48% of agricultural field is practiced at highland areas over 400 m in elevation in Kangwon province. Over 90% of highland agricultural farming is located at Kangwon province. Runoff characteristics at the mountainous area such as Kangwon province are largely affected by steep slopes, thus runoff estimation considering field slopes needs to be utilized for accurate estimation of direct runoff. Although many methods for runoff estimation are available, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS), now Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), Curve Number (CN)-based method is used in this study. The CN values were obtained from many plot-years dataset obtained from mid-west areas of the United States, where most of the areas have less than 5% in slopes. Thus, the CN method is not suitable for accurate runoff estimation where significant areas are over 5% in slopes. Therefore, the CN values were adjusted based on the average slopes (25.8% at Doam-dam watershed) depending on the 5-day Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC). In this study, the CN-based Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) direct runoff estimation model used and the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) was used for direct runoff separation from the stream flow data. The $R^2$ value was 0.65 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value was 0.60 when no slope adjustment was made in CN method. However, the $R^2$ value was 0.69 and the Nash-Sutcliffe value was 0.69 with slope adjustment. As shown in this study, it is strongly recommended the slope adjustment in the CN direct runoff estimation should be made for accurate direct runoff prediction using the CN-based L-THIA model when applied to steep mountainous areas.

Accuracy Evaluation of Bi-medium Deep Body Thermometer Based on Finite Element Simulation (유한 요소 시뮬레이션을 이용한 이중 매질 심부 체온계의 정확도 평가)

  • Sim, S.Y.;Ryou, H.S.;Kim, H.B.;Jeong, J.H.;Lee, S.J.;Kim, S.M.;Park, Kwang Suk
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.160-168
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    • 2014
  • Continuous body temperature monitoring is useful and essential in diverse medical procedures such as infection onset detection, therapeutic hypothermia, circadian rhythm monitoring, sleep disorder assessment, and gynecological research. However, the existing thermometers are too invasive or intrusive to be applied to long-term body temperature monitoring. In our previous study, we invented the bi-medium deep body thermometer which can noninvasively and continuously monitor deep tissue temperature. And the ratio of thermal resistances expressed as K-value should be obtained to estimate body temperature with the thermometer and it can be different under various measurement environments. Although the device was proven to be useful through preliminary simulation test and small group of human study, the experimental environment was restrictive in our previous approach. In this study, a finite element simulation was executed to obtain the K-value and evaluate the accuracy of bi-medium thermometer under various measurement environments. In addition, K-value estimation equation was developed by analyzing the influence of 5 measurement environmental factors (medium length, medium height, tissue depth, blood perfusion rate, and ambient temperature) on K-value. The results revealed that the estimation accuracy of bi-medium deep body thermometer based on computer simulation was very high (RMSE < $0.003^{\circ}C$) in various measurement environments. Also, bi-medium deep body thermometer based on K-value estimation equation showed relatively accurate results (RMSE < $0.3^{\circ}C$) except for one case. Although the K-value estimation technology should be improved for more accurate body temperature estimation, the results of finite element simulation showed that bi-medium deep body thermometer could accurately measure various tissue temperatures under diverse environments.

Performance of VaR Estimation Using Point Process Approach (점과정 기법을 이용한 VaR추정의 성과)

  • Yeo, Sung-Chil;Moon, Seoung-Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.471-485
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    • 2010
  • VaR is used extensively as a tool for risk management by financial institutions. For convenience, the normal distribution is usually assumed for the measurement of VaR, but recently the method using extreme value theory is attracted for more accurate VaR estimation. So far, GEV and GPD models are used for probability models of EVT for the VaR estimation. In this paper, the PP model is suggested for improved VaR estimation as compared to the traditonal EV models such as GEV and GPD models. In view of the stochastic process, the PP model is regarded as a generalized model which include GEV and GPD models. In the empirical analysis, the PP model is shown to be superior to GEV and GPD models for the performance of VaR estimation.

On-board Capacity Estimation of Lithium-ion Batteries Based on Charge Phase

  • Zhou, Yapeng;Huang, Miaohua
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.733-741
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    • 2018
  • Capacity estimation is indispensable to ensure the safety and reliability of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles (EVs). Therefore it's quite necessary to develop an effective on-board capacity estimation technique. Based on experiment, it's found constant current charge time (CCCT) and the capacity have a strong linear correlation when the capacity is more than 80% of its rated value, during which the battery is considered healthy. Thus this paper employs CCCT as the health indicator for on-board capacity estimation by means of relevance vector machine (RVM). As the ambient temperature (AT) dramatically influences the capacity fading, it is added to RVM input to improve the estimation accuracy. The estimations are compared with that via back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The experiments demonstrate that CCCT with AT is highly qualified for on-board capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries via RVM as the results are more precise and reliable than that calculated by BPNN.

The wavelet based Kalman filter method for the estimation of time-series data (시계열 데이터의 추정을 위한 웨이블릿 칼만 필터 기법)

  • Hong, Chan-Young;Yoon, Tae-Sung;Park, Jin-Bae
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11c
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    • pp.449-451
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    • 2003
  • The estimation of time-series data is fundamental process in many data analysis cases. However, the unwanted measurement error is usually added to true data, so that the exact estimation depends on efficient method to eliminate the error components. The wavelet transform method nowadays is expected to improve the accuracy of estimation, because it is able to decompose and analyze the data in various resolutions. Therefore, the wavelet based Kalman filter method for the estimation of time-series data is proposed in this paper. The wavelet transform separates the data in accordance with frequency bandwidth, and the detail wavelet coefficient reflects the stochastic process of error components. This property makes it possible to obtain the covariance of measurement error. We attempt the estimation of true data through recursive Kalman filtering algorithm with the obtained covariance value. The procedure is verified with the fundamental example of Brownian walk process.

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Delay-Constrained Bottleneck Location Estimator and Its Application to Scalable Multicasting

  • Kim, Sang-Bum;Youn, Chan-Hyun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2000
  • Designing a reliable multicast-based network that scales to the size of a multicast group member is difficult because of the diversity of user demands. The loss inferences of internal nodes by end-to-end measurements do not require the use of complete statistics because of the use of maximum likelihood estimation. These schemes are very efficient and the inferred value converges fast to its true value. In the theoretical analysis, internal delay estimation is possible but the analysis is very complex due to the continuity property of the delay. In this paper, we propose the use of a bottleneck location estimator. This can overcome the analytical difficulty of the delay estimation using the power spectrum of the packet interarrival time as the performance metric. Both theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed scheme can be used for bottleneck location inference of internal links in scalable multicasting.

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A Novel Battery State of Health Estimation Method Based on Outlier Detection Algorithm

  • Piao, Chang-hao;Hu, Zi-hao;Su, Ling;Zhao, Jian-fei
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.1802-1811
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    • 2016
  • A novel battery SOH estimation algorithm based on outlier detection has been presented. The Battery state of health (SOH) is one of the most important parameters that describes the usability state of the power battery system. Firstly, a battery system model with lifetime fading characteristic was established, and the battery characteristic parameters were acquired from the lifetime fading process. Then, the outlier detection method based on angular distribution was used to identify the outliers among the battery behaviors. Lastly, the functional relationship between battery SOH and the outlier distribution was obtained by polynomial fitting method. The experimental results show that the algorithm can identify the outliers accurately, and the absolute error between the SOH estimation value and true value is less than 3%.

An Estimation of VaR in Stock Markets Using Transformations

  • Yeo, In-Kwon;Jeong, Choo-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.567-580
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    • 2005
  • It is usually assumed that asset returns in the stock market are normally distributed. However, analyses of real data show that the distribution tends to be skewed and to have heavier tails than those of the normal distribution. In this paper, we investigate the method of estimating the value at risk(VaR) of stock returns. The VaR is computed by using the transformation and back-transformation method. The analysis of KOSPI and KOSDAQ data shows that the proposed estimation outperformed that under the normal assumption.

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A Coupled Recursive Total Least Squares-Based Online Parameter Estimation for PMSM

  • Wang, Yangding;Xu, Shen;Huang, Hai;Guo, Yiping;Jin, Hai
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2344-2353
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    • 2018
  • A coupled recursive total least squares (CRTLS) algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation of permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSMs). TLS considers the errors of both input variables and output ones, and thus achieves more accurate estimates than standard least squares method does. The proposed algorithm consists of two recursive total least squares (RTLS) algorithms for the d-axis subsystem and q-axis subsystem respectively. The incremental singular value decomposition (SVD) for the RTLS obtained by an approximate calculation with less computation. The performance of the CRTLS is demonstrated by simulation and experimental results.

An Estimation of Fitness Evaluation in Evolutionary Algorithm for the Rectilinear Steiner Tree Problem (직각거리 스타이너 나무 문제의 하이브리드 진화 해법에서 효율적인 적합도 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Byoung-Hak
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.589-598
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    • 2006
  • The rectilinear Steiner tree problem is to find a minimum-length rectilinear interconnection of a set of terminals in the plane. It is well known that the solution to this problem will be the minimal spanning tree (MST) on some set Steiner points. A hybrid evolutionary algorithm is introduced based upon the Prim algorithm. The Prim algorithm for the fitness evaluation requires heavy calculation time. The fitness value of parents is inherited to their child and the fitness value of child is estimated by the inherited structure of tree. We introduce four alternative evolutionary algorithms, Experiment result shows that the calculation time is reduced to 25% without loosing the solution quality by using the fitness estimation.

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