• Wind and Structures
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.1841-1851
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• 2018

For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.2844-2851
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to set up an acoustic prediction technique and to perform the IL test of scale down noise reducing device for the development of the noise reducing device as the development of 400km/h class high speed train. First of all, the IL prediction of noise reducing device was performed with the 2D BEM method. And the noise test of scale down noise reducing device in anechoic chamber was performed for the verification of acoustic prediction technique and IL performance evaluation. As the results, the acoustic prediction technique for the development of noise reducing device was verified because the averaged IL difference between prediction and test is in 2dB(A). And the measured IL value of noise reducing device is less than 2dB(A), and additional IL with polyester absorption material is increased about 0.5dB(A).

• BMB Reports
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• 제50권11호
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• pp.546-553
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• 2017

Aging is a natural and gradual process in human life. It is influenced by heredity, environment, lifestyle, and disease. DNA methylation varies with age, and the ability to predict the age of donor using DNA from evidence materials at a crime scene is of considerable value in forensic investigations. Recently, many studies have reported age prediction models based on DNA methylation from various tissues and body fluids. Those models seem to be very promising because of their high prediction accuracies. In this review, the changes of age-associated DNA methylation and the age prediction models for various tissues and body fluids were examined, and then the applicability of the DNA methylation-based age prediction method to the forensic investigations was discussed. This will improve the understandings about DNA methylation markers and their potential to be used as biomarkers in the forensic field, as well as the clinical field.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1151-1160
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• 2006

The similarity weight, the pearson's correlation coefficient, which is used in the recommender system has a weak point that it cannot predict all of the prediction value. The similarity weight, the vector similarity, has a weak point of the high MAE although the prediction coverage using the vector similarity is higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest how to raise the prediction coverage. Also, the MAE using the suggested method in this study was compared both with the MAE using the pearson's correlation coefficient and with the MAE using the vector similarity, so was the prediction coverage. As a result, it was found that the low of the MAE in the case of using the suggested method was higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. However, it was also shown that it was lower than that using the vector similarity. In terms of the prediction coverage, when the suggested method was compared with two similarity weights as I mentioned above, it was found that its prediction coverage was higher than that pearson's correlation coefficient as well as vector similarity.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2006년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2006 PORSEC Volume II
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• pp.884-887
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• 2006

This paper focuses on minimizing flood damage in the Yeongdeok basin of South Korea by establishing a flood prediction model based on a geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, and geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GcIUH) techniques. The GIS database for flash flood prediction was created using data from digital elevation models (DEMs), soil maps, and Landsat satellite imagery. Flood prediction was based on the peak discharge calculated at the sub-basin scale using hydrogeomorphologic techniques and the threshold runoff value. Using the developed flash flood prediction model, rainfall conditions with the potential to cause flooding were determined based on the cumulative rainfall for 20 minutes, considering rainfall duration, peak discharge, and flooding in the Yeongdeok basin.

• 대한화상학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of four prediction models in adult burn patients. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on 696 adult burn patients who were treated at burn intensive care unit (BICU) of Hallym University Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. The models are ABSI, APACHE IV, rBaux and Hangang score. Results: The discrimination of each prediction model was analyzed as AUC of ROC curve. AUC value was the highest with Hangang score of 0.931 (0.908~0.954), followed by rBaux 0.896 (0.867~0.924), ABSI 0.883 (0.853~0.913) and APACHE IV 0.851 (0.818~0.884). Conclusion: The results of evaluating the accuracy of the four models, Hangang score showed the highest prediction. But it is necessary to apply the appropriate prediction model according to characteristics of the burn center.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 1999년도 연약지반처리위원회 학술세미나
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• pp.62-70
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• 1999

Artesian pressure exists in Yangsan site, the maximum value of which has been measured as high as 5 t/m$^2$. This paper deals with the prediction of consolidation settlement for the site with artesian pressure. The consolidation settlement at the site has been accelerated using vertical band drains. Since the artesian pressure gives lower effective stress than a static condition, its effect should be considered in the settlement prediction. This case study shows that the prediction of settlement and pore pressure dissipation agrees well with the measurements, when considering the artesian effect.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.717-726
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• 2006

This study is to investigate the MAE of prediction value by collaborative filtering algorithm originated by GroupLens and improved algorithm. To decrease the MAE on the collaborative recommender system on user based, this research proposes the improved algorithm, which reduces the possibility of over estimation of active user's preference mean collaboratively using other user’s preference mean. The result shows the MAE of prediction by improved algorithm is better than original algorithm, so the active user's preference mean used in prediction formula is possibly over estimated.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2001년도 정보화시공 학술발표회
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• pp.103-122
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• 2001

For prediction of ground movement per the excavation step, observational results of ground movement during the construction was very different with prediction during the analysis of design. step because of the uncertainty of the numerical analysis modelling, the soil parameter, and the condition of a construction field, etc. however accuratly numerical analysis method was applied. Therefore, the management system through the construction field measurement should be achieved for grasping the situation during the excavation. Until present, the measurement system restricted by ‘Absolute Value Management system’only analyzing the stability of present step was executed. So, it was difficult situation to expect the prediction of ground movement for the next excavation step. In this situation, it was developed that ‘The Management system TOMAS-EXCAV’ consisted of ‘Absolute value management system’ analyzing the stability of present step and ‘Prediction management system’ expecting the ground movement of next excavation step and analyzing the stability of next excavation step by‘Back Analysis’. TOMAS-EXCAV could be applied to all uncertainty of earth retaining structures analysis by connecting ‘Forward analysis program’ and ‘Back analysis program’ and optimizing the main design variables using SQP-MMFD optimization method through measurement results. The application of TOMAS-EXCAV was confirmed that verifed the three earth retaing construction field by back analysis.