• Title/Summary/Keyword: Using pattern

Search Result 15,831, Processing Time 0.05 seconds

The Changes in Patients and Medical Services by Separation of Prescribing and Dispensing Practice in Health Center (의약분업 실시 전후 보건소 내소환자 진료내용 변화)

  • Chun, Jae-Kyung;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-86
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to investigate the changes in patients and medical services before and after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing in Health Center. For the purpose of this study, prescription data of 5,890 prescribed patients in March 2000(before the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing) and 3,496 prescribed patients in March 2001(after the Separation) in 4 Health Centers located in Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam-do were collected. For investigation of the change of character of prescribed patients and the disease, sex, age, chief diagnosis, the hind of medical insurance, days of visit, days of prescription were investigated by using National Health Insurance claim data. And for investigation of change of prescription, prescribed drugs per each claim, the use rate of antibiotics, injection, and high-price antiphlogistic drug were investigated for acute respiratory disease and musculoskeletal disease. The major results were as follows: For the changes of prescribed patients of each disease, patients with acute respiratory disease were decreased by 49.7% after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing than before the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing and patients with hypertension(18.1%), patients with musculoskeletal disease(70.5%), patients with diabetes(8.5%), patients with digestive organ disease(71.2%), patients with chronic respiratory disease(76.4%) were decreased. But patients with urethritis were increased by 66.7%. The mean Health Center visited days of prescribed patients decreased significantly after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing than before in both male and female(p<0.01) and in health insurance patients(p<0.01). For the each of the disease, hypertension, diabetes, musculoskeletal disease decreased. The mean prescribed days increased after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing than before(p<0.01). According to the kine of disease, the mean prescribed days increased after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing than before in all the diseases except the urethritis(p<0.01). For acute respiratory diseases, number of prescribed drugs per each claim decreased significantly after the Separation of Prescription and Dispensing(4.7 drugs) than before(4.9 drugs) and the prescription rate of injection decreased significantly from 63.8% to 7.70%, and the prescription rate of antibiotics decreased significantly from 337% to 19.1%(p<0.01). For musculoskeletal diseases before and after Separation of Prescription and Dispensing, number of prescribed drugs per each claim decreased significantly from 3.7 to 3.2 and the prescription rate of injection decreased significantly from 64.9% to 1.7%, and the prescription rate of high-price antiphlogistic drugs increased significantly from 29.1% to 397%(p<0.01). In consideration of above findings, the mean visited days decreased and on the contrary, the mean prescribed days per each prescription increased after Separation of Prescription and Dispensing than before in health centers. For the prescription pattern of physicians, number of prescribed drugs and the prescription rates of injection and antibiotics per each claim decreased, but the prescription rate of high-price antiphlogistic drugs increased after Separation of Prescription and Dispensing.

  • PDF

Research on The Utility of Acquisition of Oblique Views of Bilateral Orbit During the Dacryoscintigraphy (눈물길 조영검사 시 양측 안 와 사위 상 획득의 유용성에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jwa-Woo;Lee, Bum-Hee;Park, Seung-Hwan;Park, Su-Young;Jung, Chan-Wook;Ryu, Hyung-Gi;Kim, Ho-Shin
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.76-81
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose: Diversity and the lachrymal duct deformities and the passage inside the nasal cavity except for anterior image such as epiphora happens during the test were able to express more precisely during the dacryoscintigraphy. Also, we thought about the necessity of a method to classify the passage into the naso-lachrymal duct from epiphora. Therefore, we are to find the validity of the method to obtain both oblique views except for anterior views. Materials and Methods: The targets of this research are 78 patients with epiphora due to the blockage at the lachrymal duct from January 2013 to August 2013. Average age was $56.96{\pm}13.36$. By using a micropipette, we dropped 1-2 drops of $^{99m}TcO4^-$ of 3.7 MBq (0.1 mCi) with $10{\mu}L$ of each drop into the inferior conjunctival fold, then we performed dynamic check for 20 minutes with 20 frames of each minute. In case of we checked the passage from both eyes to nasal cavity immediately after the dynamic check, we obtained oblique view immediately. If we didn't see the passage in either side of the orbit, we obtained oblique views of the orbit after checking the frontal film in 40 minutes. The instrument we used was Pin-hole Collimator with Gamma Camera(Siemens Orbiter, Hoffman Estates, IL, USA). Results: Among the 78 patients with dacryoscintigraphy, 35 patients were confirmed with passage into the nasal cavity from the anterior view. Among those 35 patients, 15 patients were confirmed with passage into the nasal cavity on both eyes, and it was able to observe better passage patterns through oblique view with a result of 8 on both eyes, 2 on left eye, and 1 on right eye. 20 patients had passage in left eye or right eye, among those patients 10 patients showed clear passage compared to the anterior view. 13 patients had possible passage, and 30 patients had no proof of motion of the tracer. To sum up, 21 patients (60%) among 35 patients showed clear pattern of passage with additional oblique views compared to anterior view. People responded obtaining oblique views though 5 points scale about the utility of passage identification helps make diagnoses the passage, passage delayed, and blockage of naso-lachrymal duct by showing the well-seen portions from anterior view. Also, when classifying passage to naso-lachrymal duct and flow to the skin, oblique views has higher chance of classification in case of epiphora (anterior:$4.14{\pm}0.3$, oblique:$4.55{\pm}0.4$). Conclusion: It is considered that if you obtain oblique views of the bilateral orbits in addition to anterior view during the dacryoscintigraphy, the ability of diagnose for reading will become higher because you will be able to see the areas that you could not observe from the anterior view so that you can see if it emitted after the naso-lachrymal duct and the flow of epiphora on the skin.

  • PDF

The Role of c-Jun N-terminal Kinase in the Radiation-Induced Lung Fibrosis (방사선에 의한 폐 섬유화증에서 c-Jun N-terminal Kinase(JNK)의 역할)

  • Uh, Soo-Taek;Hong, Ki-Young;Lee, Young-Mok;Kim, Ki-Up;Kim, Do-Jin;Moon, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Yong-Hoon;Park, Choon-Sik;Yeom, Uk;Kim, Eun-Suk;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.50 no.4
    • /
    • pp.450-461
    • /
    • 2001
  • Background : The underlying pathogenesis of radiation-induced lung fibrosis (RTLF) has not been very well defined. However, the role of TGF-$\beta$ in the generation of RTLF has been a major focus because there is an increase in the expression of both the TGF-${\beta}m$-RNA and its protein preceding RTLF lesions. The down stream signal after a TGF-$\beta$ stimulated lung fibrosis includes the activation of many mediators such as Smad and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) through TAK1. It is we hypothesized that JNK activation may play a pivotal role in RTLF pathogenesis through increased transcription of the fibrogenic cytokines. The present study evaluates JNK activity in alveolar macrophages after irradiation and the relationship between JNK activity and the amount of collagen in the lung tissues. Methods : C57BL/6 mice(20-25 gr, males) received chlorotetracycline(2g/L) in their drinking water 1 week prior to irradiation and continuously there after. The mice were irradiated once with 1400 cGy of $60CO{\gamma}$-ray over the whole chest. The cellular composition of the whole lung bronchoalveoalr lavage fluids(BALF), elastin expression in the lung tissues, the level of hydroxyproline in lung tissues, and an in vitro JNK assay was measured before irradiation and one, four, and eight weeks after irradiation (RT). Results : The volumes of BALF retrieved from instilled 4 mL of saline with 2% heparin were 3.7-3.8 mL for each group. The cell numbers were similar before($4.1{\times}10^4{\pm}0.5{\times}10^4/mL$) and 1 week($3.1{\times}10^4{\pm}0.5{\times}10^4/mL$) after RT. At four and eight weeks after RT, the cell number reached to $14.0{\times}10^4{\pm}1.5{\times}10^4mL$ and $10.0{\times}10^4{\pm}1.3{\times}10^4/mL$, respectively. There we no changes in the lymphocytes and neutrophils population observed in the BALF after RT. The H-E stain of the lung tissues did not show any structural and fibrotic change in the lung tissues at 4 and 8 weeks after RT. In addition, the amount of elastin and collagen were not different on Verhoeff staining of the lung tissues before RT to eight weeks after RT. The hydroxyproine content was measured with the left lung dissected from the left main bronchus. The lung were homogenized and hydrolyzed with 6 N Hel for 12 hours at $110^{\circ}C$ then measured as previously described. The content of hydroxyproline, standardized with a lung protein concentration, reached a peak 4 weeks after RT, and thereafter showed a plateau. AnIn vitro JNK assay using c-$Jun_{1-79}$-GST sepharose beads were performed with the alveolar macrophages obtained from the BAL. JNK activity was not detected prior to RT, However, the JNK activity increased from one week after RT and reached a peak four weeks after RT. Conclusion : JNK may be involved in the pathogenesis because the JNK activity showed similar pattern observed with the hydroxyproine content. However, it is necessary to clarify that the JNK increases the transcription of fibrogenic cyiokines through the transcription factor.

  • PDF

THE EFFECTS OF THE PLATELET-DERIVED GROWTH FACTOR-BB ON THE PERIODONTAL TISSUE REGENERATION OF THE FURCATION INVOLVEMENT OF DOGS (혈소판유래성장인자-BB가 성견 치근이개부병변의 조직재생에 미치는 효과)

  • Cho, Moo-Hyun;Park, Kwang-Beom;Park, Joon-Bong
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.535-563
    • /
    • 1993
  • New techniques for regenerating the destructed periodontal tissue have been studied for many years. Current acceptable methods of promoting periodontal regeneration alre basis of removal of diseased soft tissue, root treatment, guided tissue regeneration, graft materials, biological mediators. Platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) is one of polypeptide growth factor. PDGF have been reported as a biological mediator which regulate activities of wound healing progress including cell proliferation, migration, and metabolism. The purposes of this study is to evaluate the possibility of using the PDGF as a regeneration promoting agent for furcation involvement defect. Eight adult mongrel dogs were used in this experiment. The dogs were anesthetized with Pentobarbital Sodium (25-30 mg/kg of body weight, Tokyo chemical Co., Japan) and conventional periodontal prophylaxis were performed with ultrasonic scaler. With intrasulcular and crestal incision, mucoperiosteal flap was elevated. Following decortication with 1/2 high speed round bur, degree III furcation defect was made on mandibular second(P2) and fourth(P4) premolar. For the basic treatment of root surface, fully saturated citric acid was applied on the exposed root surface for 3 minutes. On the right P4 20ug of human recombinant PDGF-BB dissolved in acetic acid was applied with polypropylene autopipette. On the left P2 and right P2 PDGF-BB was applied after insertion of ${\beta}-Tricalcium$ phosphate(TCP) and collagen (Collatape) respectively. Left mandibular P4 was used as control. Systemic antibiotics (Penicillin-G benzathine and penicillin-G procaine, 1 ml per 10-25 1bs body weight) were administrated intramuscular for 2 weeks after surgery. Irrigation with 0.1% Chlorhexidine Gluconate around operated sites was performed during the whole experimental period except one day immediate after surgery. Soft diets were fed through the whole experiment period. After 2, 4, 8, 12 weeks, the animals were sacrificed by perfusion technique. Tissue block was excised including the tooth and prepared for light microscope with H-E staining. At 2 weeks after surgery, therer were rapid osteogenesis phenomenon on the defected area of the PDGF only treated group and early trabeculation pattern was made with new osteoid tissue produced by activated osteoblast. Bone formation was almost completed to the fornix of furcation by 8 weeks after surgery. New cementum fromation was observed from 2 weeks after surgery, and the thickness was increased until 8 weeks with typical Sharpey’s fibers reembedded into new bone and cementum. In both PDGF-BB with TCP group and PDGF-BB with Collagen group, regeneration process including new bone and new cementum formation and the group especially in the early weeks. It might be thought that the migration of actively proliferating cells was prohibited by the graft materials. In conclusion, platelet-derived growth factor can promote rapid osteogenesis during early stage of periodontal tissue regeneration.

  • PDF

3-D Finite element stress analysis in screw-type, cement-type, and combined-type implant fixed partial denture designs (임플란트 상부보철물의 유지형태에 따른 3차원 유한요소 응력분석)

  • Lee, Sung-Chun;Kim, Seok-Gyu
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
    • /
    • v.47 no.4
    • /
    • pp.365-375
    • /
    • 2009
  • Statement of problems: Stress analysis on implant components of the combined screw- and cement-retained implant prosthesis has not investigated yet. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the load distribution characteristics of implant prostheses with the different prosthodontic retention types, such as cement-type, screw-type and combined type by using 3-dimensional finite element analysis. Material and methods: A 3-dimensional finite element model was created in which two SS II implants (Osstem Co. Ltd.) were placed in the areas of the first premolar and the first molar in the mandible, and three-unit fixed partial dentures with four different retention types were fabricated on the two SS II implants. Model 1 was a cement-retained implant restoration made on two cement-retained type abutments (Comocta abutment; Osstem Co. Ltd.), and Model 2 was a screw-retained implant restoration made on the screw-retained type abutments (Octa abutment; Osstem Co. Ltd.). Model 3 was a combined type implant restoration made on the cement-retained type abutment (Comocta abutment) for the first molar and the screw-retained type abutment (Octa abutment) for the first premolar. Lastly, Model 4 was a combined type implant restoration made on the screw-retained type abutment (Octa abutment) for the first molar and the cement-retained type abutment (Comocta abutment) for the first premolar. Average masticatory force was applied on the central fossa in a vertical direction, and on the buccal cusp in a vertical and oblique direction for each model. Von-Mises stress patterns on alveolar bone, implant body, abutment, abutment screw, and prosthetic screw around implant prostheses were evaluated through 3-dimensional finite element analysis. Results: Model 2 showed the lowest von Mises stress. In all models, the von Mises stress distribution of cortical bone, cancellous bone and implant body showed the similar pattern. Regardless of loading conditions and type of abutment system, the stress of bone was concentrated on the cortical bone. The von-Mises stress on abutment, abutment screw, and prosthetic screw showed the lower values for the screw-retained type abutment than for the cement-retained type abutment regardless of the model type. There was little reciprocal effect of the abutment system between the molar and the premolar position. For all models, buccal cusp oblique loading caused the largest stress, followed by buccal cusp vertical loading and center vertical loading. Conclusion: Within the limitation of the FEA study, the combined type implant prosthesis did not demonstrate more stress around implant components than the cement type implant prosthesis. Under the assumption of ideal passive fit, the screw-type implant prosthesis showed the east stress around implant components.

Effects of HapKok (LI-4) , SamUmGyo (SP-6) Acupuncture on Uterine Motility and Cyclooxygenase-2 Manifestation in Rats (합곡(合谷), 삼음교(三陰交) 자침(刺鍼)이 백서(白鼠) 자궁(子宮) 운동(運動) 및 Cyclooxygenase-2 발현(發現)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Lee, Byung-Chul;Lee, Ho-Sub;Kim, Kyung-Sik;Lee, Geon-Mok;Na, Chang-Soo;Kim, Jung-Sang;Hwang, Woo-Jun
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.187-208
    • /
    • 2000
  • By the activation of ovary hormone, many morphological changes occur in the epithelial cell lines and muscle cells in rat uterus. These two cells in uterus are important to the implantation of embryo, maintaining pregnancy and starting parturition. One important change associated with the morphological change of these two cells in uterus is the change on prostaglandin(PG) metabolism. Its presence and synthesis in endometriurn and myometrium in uterus affects estrous cycle and the start of embryo implantation in uterus. It also performs as an important modulator in parturition. So the abnormally weak expression of PG causes difficulty during labor and over-expression causes pre-term labor. PG biosynthesis starts from either free or liberated arachidonic acids from membrane phospholipid by phospholipase. Such arachidonic acids are converted into PG catalyzed by Cyclooxygenase. Under normal physiological condition, Cyclooxygenase-1(COX-1) having 602 units of amino acids controls the synthesis of PG. It acts as a local hormone regulating vasomodulation of blood flow, flexible muscle movement, increasing the blood permeability and contributing the protective role in preserving integrity of the stomach lining and Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is induced by the inflammation, pregnancy and increased its expression until parturition. Lipid metabolite like PG is located in uterine and expression of COX-2 increased with pregnancy. Increased expression of COX proteins in epithelial cells and myometrial cells are told to increase the muscle contractility in uterus but decreased right after the labor in rat. It is a good sign indicating that COX proteins are deeply related to the start of labor. Currently, Several studies report the use of PG and COX-2 inhibitor as medication for controlled abortion or to prevent pre-term labor but they entail various side-effects. Our study proposed to suggest use of acupuncture as an another mediator to control abortion or pre-term labor without causing unnecessary side-effects by those medicines. Two acupuncture sites, LI-4 & SP-6 were selected due to their known efficacy. From the immunohistochemical staining of COX-2, normal expression of COX-2 protein in nonpregnant SD rat's uterus revealed that COX-2 protein was primarily detected in the lumina epithelial lining and in the epithelial cell lining contacting the stromal cells. High resolution optical microscopic scanning revealed distinguishable staining in the myometrial mucosa. LI-4 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed strong expression for COX-2 in endometrium contacted with lumina epithelial lining of rat uterus and in myometrial mucosa. Stromal cells showed more staining than untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus and stronger staining in stromal cells contacting myometrial layer compared to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus. SP-6 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed weak expression for COX-2 in myometrial layers and stromal cells but no staining was visible in lumina epitheliai and glandular epithelial cells. Few stromal cells and myometrial mucosa were positively stained for COX-2. Pregnant SD rat's uterus was also immunostained for COX-2 expression after 18 days of pregnancy. Unlike to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus, luminal epithelial cells were not positively stained for COX-2 but stronger staining for COX-2 was revealed in stromal cells. LI-4 acupunctured SD rat's uterus had very strong expression of COX-2 in luminal epithelial lining. Few stromal cells showed stronger positive COX-2 staining and myometrial layers also showed more expression than untreated pregnant rat. SP-6 acupuncture administered pregnant SD rat's uterus showed positive expression of COX-2 in epithelial cells of luminal mucosa layer but weaker than that of LI-4 acupuncture treatment's case. However, strong positive staining was revealed in stromal mucosa and myometrial layers. Virgin SD rat's uterus motility index during LI-4 acupuncture was 66.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0197) compared to its motility before the acupuncture treatment but the motility index was slighdy elevated up to 79.58 % (Prob〉T = 0.1175) after the acupuncture. During the SP-6 acupuncture treatment for 30 minutes, uterus motility index was 90.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.1832) showing lesser decrement but consequently reached similar motility index decreasal to 79.95 % (Prob〉T = 0.0215) after the acupuncture treatment as LI-4 showed. LI-4 acupuncture tend to be a quick treatment to reducing the uterus motility in a virgin rat but eventually both two acupuncture administration created very similar reduction of uterus motility seeing the index after the both acupunctures. The uterus movement monitored during the LI-4 acupuncture administered for 30 minutes, Pregnant SD rat showed decreased motility down to 77.90 % (Prob〉 T = 0.0076) compared to uterus motility before the acupuncture and it continuously decreased down to 71.81 %(Prob〉T = 0.0214) after the removal of needle. The statistical analysis using paired t-test showed significance difference for both two motility indexs at =0.05. SP-6 acupuncture administered to pregnant SD rat also had similar pattern of decreasing uterus motility index down to 74.70 % (Prob〉T = 0.1730) during the initial 30 minutes acupuncture administration and it was continuously lowered to 71.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0155) after the acupuncture. The paired t-test resuit for SP-6 suggest prompt response of uterus motility index to the SP-6 acupuncture treatment but consequently reached same level of inducing the motility reduction as LI-4 at =0.05 level.

  • PDF

Comparison of Imposed Work of Breathing Between Pressure-Triggered and Flow-Triggered Ventilation During Mechanical Ventilation (기계환기시 압력유발법과 유량유발법 차이에 의한 부가적 호흡일의 비교)

  • Choi, Jeong-Eun;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.44 no.3
    • /
    • pp.592-600
    • /
    • 1997
  • Background : The level of imposed work of breathing (WOB) is important for patient-ventilator synchrony and during weaning from mechanical ventilation. Triggering methods and the sensitivity of demand system are important determining factors of the imposed WOB. Flow triggering method is available on several modern ventilator and is believed to impose less work to a patient-triggered breath than pressure triggering method. We intended to compare the level of imposed WOB on two different methods of triggering and also at different levels of sensitivities on each triggering method (0.7 L/min vs 2.0 L/min on flow triggering ; $-1\;cmH_2O$ vs $-2cm\;H_2O$ on pressure triggering). Methods : The subjects were 12 patients ($64.8{\pm}4.2\;yrs$) on mechanical ventilation and were stable in respiratory pattern on CPAP $3\;cmH_2O$. Four different triggering sensitivities were applied at random order. For determination of imposed WOB, tracheal end pressure was measured through the monitoring lumen of Hi-Lo Jet tracheal tube (Mallincrodt, New York, USA) using pneumotachograph/pressure transducer (CP-100 pulmonary monitor, Bicore, Irvine, CA, USA). Other data of respiratory mechanics were also obtained by CP-100 pulmonary monitor. Results : The imposed WOB was decreased by 37.5% during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering and also decreased by 14% during $-1\;cmH_2O$ compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The PTP(Pressure Time Product) was also decreased significantly during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering and $-1\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The proportions of imposed WOB in total WOB were ranged from 37% to 85% and no significant changes among different methods and sensitivities. The physiologic WOB showed no significant changes among different triggering methods and sensitivities. Conclusion : To reduce the imposed WOB, flow triggering with sensitivity of 0.7 L/min would be better method than pressure triggering with sensitivity of $-2\;cm\;H_2O$.

  • PDF

Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.3-49
    • /
    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

  • PDF

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.29-45
    • /
    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.