• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.3-18
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• 2013

This study develops a forecasting method to estimate air cargo demand from ICN(Incheon International Airport) to all airports in EU with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model using volumes from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2009. This paper shows the superiority of SARIMA Model by comparing the forecasting accuracy of SARIMA with that of other ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Given that very few papers and researches focuses on air route, this paper will be helpful to researchers concerned with air cargo.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.1-16
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• 2020

Since Korea has excellent port infrastructure and competitive petrochemical complexes, there is plenty of potential for creating an oil hub in Northeast Asia. In particular, Ship-to-Ship (STS), which creates high added values, contributes greatly to the national economy. In this study, the liquid cargo volumes of chemical industrial products, refined petroleum products, and crude oil were analyzed at the national and regional (Busan, Ulsan, and Yeosu/Gwangyang) levels. Additionally, a Granger causality analysis was performed between imports, exports, and transshipments, in pairs. ADF, PP, and KPSS were analyzed for the unit root test. In addition, the VAR model and expanded VAR model suggested by Toda and Yamamoto were used for further analyses. Findings revealed a difference in Granger causality depending on the region or cargo type. These findings suggest that policies and incentive schemes for ports need to be differentiated according to the region and cargo types. In addition, the different patterns in the relationship between transshipments and import-export petrochemical cargoes should be considered.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.559-573
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• 2019

The aim of this study is to investigate how social welfare expenditure affects to economic growth in Northern European countries, and such implication might be compared with Korean episode. ARDL cointegration model is employed for emplrical analysis. The model is usefully utilized to analyze short-run and long-run relationships of the variables in general. The result suggests that private welfare expenditure is effective in Korea and Finland even though the magnitude of effectiveness is quite a small scale. On the other hand, public welfare expenditure is effective in Denmark and Norway. However, none of social welfare expenditures affects in economic growth in Sweden. And, therefore, it could be concluded that although social welfare expenditures contribute to improve income inequality, these hardly support income-led growth strategy.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.277-297
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• 2009

This paper empirically investigates a long-run and short-run equilibrium relationships for exchange rate and stock prices in Korea and Japan from January 1998 to July 2008. Because using monthly data in my study, analyzes unit root test and VEC model including seasonality to overcome bias that happen in seasonal adjustment. The empirical evidence suggests that exists strong evidence supporting the long-run cointegration relationships between exchange rates and stock prices of the Korea and Japan. This implies that it is possible to predict one market from another for both countries, which seems to violate the efficient market hypothesis. In the long-run a negative relationship running from the KRW/JPY real exchange rate to the stock prices of Korea strongly argues for the traditional approach.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.159-172
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate economic variables which have impact on the prices and returns of preferred stocks and to provide investors, underwriters, and policy makers with information regarding correlations and causal relations between them. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 98 monthly data from Korea Exchange and Bank of Korea. The Granger causal relation analysis, unit-root test and the multiple regression analysis were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our study derives the economic variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and their implications, while previous studies focused mainly on the differential characteristics and related economic factors between common and preferred stocks. Empirical results show that the significant variables influencing the prices and returns of preffered stocks are consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, industrial production index, KOSPI volatility index, and exchange rate between Korean won and US dollar. Second, consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, and industrial production index have significant casual relations with the returns of preferred stocks, providing market participants with important information regarding investment in preferred stocks. Research implications or Originality - This study is different from previous studies in that preferred stocks themselves are investigated rather than the gap between common stocks and preferred stocks. In addition, we derive the major macro variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and find some useful causal relations between the macro variables and returns of preferred stocks. These findings give important implications to market participants, including stock investors, underwriters, and policy makers.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.87-101
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines the effectiveness of the foreign exchange risk insurance system in the promotion of SME exports in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term responses of SME exports to foreign exchange risk insurance support policies. Based on these empirical studies, we would like to present some operational improvements to the operation of the foreign exchange risk insurance system. Design/methodology - In order to analyze the effect of exchange risk insurance on the exports of SMEs, a VAR model consisting of foreign exchange risk insurance underwriting values, export relative price, and domestic demand pressure, including export volume, was established. The study began with tests of the stationarity of time series data. The unit root tests showed that all concerned variables were non-stationary. Accordingly, the results of the cointegration test showed that the tested variables are not cointegrated. Finally, an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were conducted to analyze the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. Findings - As a result of estimating the VAR (1) model, foreign exchange risk insurance was found to be significant at a 1% significance level for SME' export promotion. In the impulse response analysis, SMEs' export response to the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance showed that exports gradually increased until the third quarter, and then slowed down. However, the impulse did not disappear, and appeared continuously. Originality/value - This study analyzed the effect of foreign exchange insurance on exports of SMEs by applying the VAR model. In particular, this study is the first to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. The empirical evidence in the current study have a policy implication for the policy authority to support and promote the foreign exchange risk insurance in the effect of exchange rate volatility on Korea' export SMEs.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.9
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• pp.243-251
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• 2022

In this paper, we propose a phenomenon that analyze the impact of market sentiment on China's real estate market through the perspective of behavioral economics. Previously, real estate market analyzation basically focus on some fundamental principles which include market price, monetary policies and income, etc. However, little research has explored market sentiment and its influence. By using principal components analysis (PCA), this study first creates buyer's sentiment and seller's sentiment to measure the heat of China's real estate market. Different from using traditional estimation method, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used to analyze how both sentiments affect real estate return. The overall results show that from unit root test and impulse response analyzation, the impact of seller's sentiment is positive to real estate market while buyer's sentiment is negative. At the same time, the higher seller's sentiment will have different influence on the housing market compared with the higher buyer's sentiment.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.215-231
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• 2022

Analysis and forecasting of the Baltic Capsize Index (BCI) is important for managing an entity's losses and risks from the uncertainty and volatility of the fast-changing maritime transport market in the future. This study conducted volatility transition analysis through the GARCH model, using BCI which is highly related to steel raw materials. As for the data, 2,385 monthly data were used from March 1999 to March 2021. In this study, after basic statistical analysis, unit root and cointegration test, the GARCH, EGARCH, and DCC-GARCH models were used for volatility transition analysis. As the results of GARCH and EGARCH model, we confirmed that all variables had no autocorrelation between the standardized residuals for error terms and the square of residuals, that the variability of all variables at this time was likely to persist in the future, and that the variability of the time-series error term impact according to Iron ore trade (IoT). In addition, through the EGARCH model, the magnitude convenience of all variables except the Iron ore price (IOP) and Capesize bulk fleet (BCF) variables was greater than the positive value (+). As a result of analyzing the DCC-GARCH (1,1) model, partial linear combinations were confirmed over the entire period. Estimating the effect of variability transition on BCF and C5 with statistically significant linear combinations with BCI confirmed that the impact of BCF on BCI was greater than the impact of BCI itself.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2017.06a
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• pp.267-267
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• 2017

In Korea, the average air temperature has been elevated twice faster than the average global warming. And the climate warming is characterized by the smaller rise of air temperature in summer and the greater rise of air temperature in spring and winter. Therefore, the number of frost-free days to determine the cultivation ability of crops has increased by more than 15 days in 10 years according to climate warming. This climate warming trend has extended and is projected to extend not only the sweet potato growing season but also the sweet potato early cultivating area to higher altitude and latitude region. This study was carried out to evaluate the possibility of sweet potato double cropping in the southern island area of Korea by assessing the growth and yield performance of sweet potato cultivated at extremely-early and -late time. We had performed at Yokji Island Yokji Island($E128^{\circ}$ 18' $N34^{\circ}$ 36'), a representative specified complex area of sweet potato cultivation in southern Korea. As the test varieties, the major cultivars of the this region, Shinyulmi and early hypertrophic cultivars, Dahomi were used. The prior cropping were planted with PE film mulching on March 30 and April 10, and harvested after 110 days. So the succeeding cropping were planted without PE film mulching on July 25 and August 5 according to the harvesting time of the prior sweet potato and harvested after 120 days. As a control, it was harvested on September 15, 120 days after planted on May 15. Each experimental plot had an area of 12 square meters consisting of 4 beds, and was planted one at a time at intervals of 25cm. We had investigated growth characteristics - main vine length, node number, branch number, total vine yield, and tuberous root characteristics - tuberous root number, average weight, starch value, and etc. After harvesting, we analyzed the economic effects by examining the postharvest quantity, the input labor, the management cost, and the income. The total yield of marketable products in prior and succeeding cropping was 46~70% higher than that of control. The average unit price of sweet potato was 36% higher than the conventional culture, and the gross income increased by 98%, but the operating cost increased by 83%, and the farm income increased by 103%. There are considerations such as the difficulty of enlargement of cultivation area due to lack of labor in limited space and the need for watering measures due to spring drought. However, if the area of application for sweet potatoes double system is increased by 10%, it can be used as a new cropping system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2017.06a
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• pp.280-280
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• 2017

In Korea, the average air temperature has been elevated twice faster than the average global warming. And the climate warming is characterized by the smaller rise of air temperature in summer and the greater rise of air temperature in spring and winter. Therefore, the number of frost-free days to determine the cultivation ability of crops has increased by more than 15 days in 10 years according to climate warming. This climate warming trend has extended and is projected to extend not only the sweet potato growing season but also the sweet potato early cultivating area to higher altitude and latitude region. This study was carried out to evaluate the possibility of sweet potato double cropping in the southern island area of Korea by assessing the growth and yield performance of sweet potato cultivated at extremely-early and -late time. We had performed at Yokji Island Yokji Island($E128^{\circ}$ 18' $N34^{\circ}$ 36'), a representative specified complex area of sweet potato cultivation in southern Korea. As the test varieties, the major cultivars of the this region, Shinyulmi and early hypertrophic cultivars, Dahomi were used. The prior cropping were planted with PE film mulching on March 30 and April 10, and harvested after 110 days. So the succeeding cropping were planted without PE film mulching on July 25 and August 5 according to the harvesting time of the prior sweet potato and harvested after 120 days. As a control, it was harvested on September 15, 120 days after planted on May 15. Each experimental plot had an area of 12 square meters consisting of 4 beds, and was planted one at a time at intervals of 25cm. We had investigated growth characteristics - main vine length, node number, branch number, total vine yield, and tuberous root characteristics - tuberous root number, average weight, starch value, and etc. After harvesting, we analyzed the economic effects by examining the postharvest quantity, the input labor, the management cost, and the income. The total yield of marketable products in prior and succeeding cropping was 46~70% higher than that of control. The average unit price of sweet potato was 36% higher than the conventional culture, and the gross income increased by 98%, but the operating cost increased by 83%, and the farm income increased by 103%. There are considerations such as the difficulty of enlargement of cultivation area due to lack of labor in limited space and the need for watering measures due to spring drought. However, if the area of application for sweet potatoes double system is increased by 10%, it can be used as a new cropping system.