Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.38121/kpea.2020.12.36.4.01

A Study on the Relationship between Transshipment and Import-Export Volume of Petrochemical Liquid Cargoes  

Shin, Chang-Hoon (한국해양대학교 물류시스템공학과)
Yang, Han-Na (경성대학교 물류학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Port Economic Association / v.36, no.4, 2020 , pp. 1-16 More about this Journal
Abstract
Since Korea has excellent port infrastructure and competitive petrochemical complexes, there is plenty of potential for creating an oil hub in Northeast Asia. In particular, Ship-to-Ship (STS), which creates high added values, contributes greatly to the national economy. In this study, the liquid cargo volumes of chemical industrial products, refined petroleum products, and crude oil were analyzed at the national and regional (Busan, Ulsan, and Yeosu/Gwangyang) levels. Additionally, a Granger causality analysis was performed between imports, exports, and transshipments, in pairs. ADF, PP, and KPSS were analyzed for the unit root test. In addition, the VAR model and expanded VAR model suggested by Toda and Yamamoto were used for further analyses. Findings revealed a difference in Granger causality depending on the region or cargo type. These findings suggest that policies and incentive schemes for ports need to be differentiated according to the region and cargo types. In addition, the different patterns in the relationship between transshipments and import-export petrochemical cargoes should be considered.
Keywords
Petrochemical Liquid Cargoes; VAR; Granger Causality; Toda and Yamamoto;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T.(1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressive with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.   DOI
2 김상춘.최봉호(2015), 부산지역 해운.항만산업의 지역경제 파급효과 재조명, 무역연구, 제11집, 제1호, 601-627.
3 이민규.이기열(2016), 항만물류산업의 지역경제 파급효과 분석:부산, 인천, 울산을 대상으로, 해운물류연구, 제32집, 제2호, 299-320.
4 이병철.김윤배(2011), 동북아시아 환적물동량 예측모델 연구, 대한산업공학회지, 제37집 제4호, 297-303.   DOI
5 이지훈.김율성.신창훈(2009), 국내 컨테이너항만의 경쟁 구조에 관한 연구, 한국항해항만학회지, 제33집 제1호, 91-98.   DOI
6 Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y.(1992), Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.   DOI
7 Toda H. Y. and Phillips, P. C. B.,(1993), Vector Autoregressions and Causality, Econometrica, 61(6), 1367-1393.   DOI
8 Johansen, S.(1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.   DOI
9 Arltova, M. and Fedorova, D.(2016), Selection of Unit Root Test on the Basis of Length of the Time Series and Value of AR(1) Parameter, Statistika, 96(3), 47-64.
10 안영균.김주현.이민규(2018), 원유 및 석유제품의 해상 수출입이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향 실증분석, 한국혁신학회지, 제13집, 제2호, 189-208.
11 이광운.신창훈(2019), Granger 및 Toda-Yamamoto 인과 검정을 통한 주요 석유화학단지와 액체화물 항만들의 관계성 연구, 한국항해항만학회지, 제43집 제6호, 469-474.   DOI
12 이성윤.안기명(2020), ARIMA와 VAR-VEC 모형에 의한 부산항 물동량 예측과 관련성 연구, 한국항해항만학회지, 제44집, 제1호, 44-52.   DOI
13 이충배.박선영(2009), 탱크터미널 운영기업의 글로벌 전략과 우리나라의 동북아 석유물류허브 정책에 대한 시사점, 한국항만경제학회지, 제25집 제1호, 63-86.
14 정윤정.우수한.박근식(2015), 석유화학업체의 플랜트 입지 선정의 중요성에 대한 연구, 한국항만경제학회지, 제31집, 제1호, 127-145.
15 최봉호.김상춘(2010), 부산항, 광양항, 인천항의 물동량 인과관계 분석, 한국항만경제학회지, 제26집, 제1호, 61-82.
16 Toda, H. Y.(1995), Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions, Econometric Theory, 11, 1015-1032.   DOI
17 하명신.김철민.장병기(2011), 항만인센티브제도의 효과에 대한 정량적 분석: 부산항을 중심으로, 한국항만경제학회지, 제27집, 제2호, 355-372.
18 Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A.(1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
19 Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P.(1988), Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika, 75, 335-346.   DOI
20 Jafari, Y., Othman J. Nor, A. H. S. Md.(2012), Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Environmental Pollutants in Indonesia, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 879-889.   DOI
21 Yap, W. Y. and Lam, J. S. L.(2006), Competition Dynamics between Container Ports in East Asia, Transportation Research Part A, 40, 35-51.   DOI