• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty theory

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Difficulties Experienced by Leading Korean Scientists and Implications for Science Education (한국의 선도적 과학자가 경험한 어려움과 과학교육에의 시사점)

  • Yeon Su Jung;Jung Bog Kim
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.343-360
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the difficulties with scientific research faced by leading Korean scientists and suggest implications for science education. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 13 leading Korean scientists and were qualitatively analyzed using constructivist grounded theory. The results of the study showed that the leading scientists encountered 11 subcategories of difficulties, which were grouped into three main categories: uncharted territory, unexpected situations, and a lack of resources in domestic research environments. 'Uncharted territory' comprised anxiety due to uncertainty about research performance, insufficient knowledge accumulation in the field of research, and the burden of maintaining research influence as an academic leader. 'Unexpected situations' included encountering new phenomena that cannot be explained by existing theories, an inability to utilize research results, and repeated failures. 'A lack of resources in domestic research environments' included inadequate research funding support systems, a shortage of expert networks, limitations on employment and career opportunities for students, poor research equipment, and insufficient support policies for retired researchers. This study provides science educators with implications for the direction of science education and R&E. For students, it can serve as career education material, their attitudes towards science and their understanding of its nature. Lastly, the study may contribute to finding ways to improve scientific research policies and to developing a culture that fosters expertise in science.

A Study on the Relationship between Business Plan Components and Corporate Performance (사업계획서의 구성요소와 기업성과와의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Koh, In-Kon;Lee, Sang-Seok;Kim, Dae-Ho
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.45-75
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    • 2006
  • How much influence does a business plan have on a corporate performance? Whilst previous studies and literatures all assert a strong correlation between the two, very few have actually conducted practical analyses to support that. This study takes an empirical approach in its analysis of Korea' s small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) with the view to finding an answer to the question. A business plan' s components, which have to date been suggested only in theory and in concept, have been selected through the study of literatures and preliminary examination. The selected components were then narrowed down into five factors of productivity, implementation, operational direction, product/service and customer accessibility by applying factor analysis. With which items to measure corporate performance is also an important question as results differ depending on which measurement items were used. For the purpose of this study, corporate performance was classified into effectiveness, adaptability and efficiency to measure how greatly each is influenced by the components of a business plan. Results show that effectiveness and adaptability have a positive (+) influence on corporate performance. The regression model seems to explain effectiveness particularly well. However, different directions of influences were showed in explain power of the research model were not high. And it can be interpreted that implementation of the plan is as important as the establishment of it. Thus a good corporate performance is to be had only under an excellent plan and following an excellent implementation. In most of the companies surveyed, business plans were established regularly led by the intense involvement of the CEO. Such plans were then used in internal operations, such as guiding operational direction and measuring corporate performance. Unlike general expectations, relatively few companies used them in financing from external sources such as banks or venture capitals. These findings are different from previous studies conducted in this field. Also, as market uncertainty was pointed out as the biggest obstacle to business planning. a manager must pay more attention to acquiring external information and knowledge so as to minimize it.

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Reliability Based Stability Analysis and Design Criteria for Reinforced Concrete Retaining Wall (신뢰성(信賴性) 이론(理論)에 의한 R.C.옹벽(擁壁)의 안정해석(安定解析) 및 설계규준(設計規準))

  • Cho, Tae Song;Cho, Hyo Nam;Chun, Chai Myung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 1983
  • Current R.C. retaining wall design is bared on WSD, but the reliability based design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the cantilever retaining wall, which is most common type of retaining wall, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis and design of each part of cantilever retaining wall are derived and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by MFOSM using Coulomb's coefficient of the active earth pressure and Hansen's bearing capacity formula. The levels of uncertainties corresponding to these algorithms are proposed appropriate values considering our actuality. The target reliability indices (overturning: ${\beta}_0$=4.0, sliding: ${\beta}_0$=3.5, bearing capacity: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for flexure: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for shear: ${\beta}_0$=3.2) are selected as optimal values considering our practice based on the calibration with the current R.C. retaining wall design safety provisions. Load and resistance factors are measured by using the proposed uncertainties and the selected target reliability indices. Furthermore, a set of nominal safety factors, allowable stresses, and allowable shear stresses are proposed for the current WSD design provisions. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD reliability based design criteria for the R.C. retaining wall may have to be incorporated into the current R.C. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.

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A Study on LRFD Reliability Based Design Criteria of RC Flexural Members (R.C. 휨부재(部材)의 L.R.F.D. 신뢰성(信賴性) 설계기준(設計基準)에 관한 연구(研究))

  • Cho, Hyo Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 1981
  • Recent trends in design standards development in some European countries and U.S.A. have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability based design criteria such as LSD, LRFD, PBLSD, adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design process and placing it on a consistent reliability bases for various construction materials. A reliability based design criteria for RC flexural members are proposed in this study. Lind-Hasofer's invariant second-moment reliability theory is used in the derivation of an algorithmic reliability analysis method as well as an iterative determination of load and resistance factors. In addition, Cornell's Mean First-Order Second Moment Method is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis and the derivation of design criteria. Uncertainty measures for flexural resistance and load effects are based on the Ellingwood's approach for the evaluation of uncertainties of loads and resistances. The implied relative safety levels of RC flexural members designed by the strength design provisions of the current standard code were evaluated using the second moment reliability analysis method proposed in this study. And then, resistance and load factors corresponding to the target reliability index(${\beta}=4$) which is considered to be appropriate level of reliability considering our practices are calculated by using the proposed methods. These reliability based factors were compared to those specified by our current ultimate strength design provisions. It was found that the reliability levels of flexural members designed by current code are not appropriate, and the code specified resistance and load factors were considerably different from the reliability based resistance and load factors proposed in this study.

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A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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A Study of Accelerator Investment Determinants Based on Business Model Innovation Framework (비즈니스 모델 혁신 프레임워크 기반의 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 연구)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2022
  • Despite the uncertainty and risky factors of startups, the special and critical role of accelerators in carrying out professional nurturing and investment for them is becoming increasingly significant in the startup social-system. However, academic research on investment determinants that have a profound impact on the survival of accelerators is lacking, and there are only a few empirical studies on the classification and importance of factors, and they do not enjoy the benefits of theoretical studies. This study proposes a business model innovation framework based on the business model innovation theory that reflects the nature and properties of startups that are investment targets of accelerators and derives 12 investment decision factors. The framework defines that the target, direction, and performable force of startup innovation are a business model, strategy, and dynamic capability. Besides, the framework analyzes the investment decision factors of the existing accelerators based on the business model innovation framework to verify the suitability and sufficiency of the composition. As a result of the analysis, first, most of the items were faithfully composed from a static point of view of business model innovation, but it was found that the factors related to the core activities to evaluate the activity and customer relationship were insufficient. Second, from the strategic point of view, the necessity of developing factors that can encompass the definition and content of core resources, which are internal strategic factors, was raised. Third, from the dynamic point of view, it was found that many of the investment determinants of accelerators were concentrated on the lower level of dynamic competencies. This can be judged as a result of reflecting the characteristics of a startup that needs to develop a solution with few resources and a small number of team members. In addition, the roles and interrelationships between each factor are not clear, thus it was found as a limiting point for startups to view and evaluate the direction and process in which startups dynamically innovate their business models. This study is considerably differentiated in that it provides a business model innovation framework and offers a theoretical basis for investment determinants by deriving the investment determinants of accelerators based on the framework and design the foundation for subsequent research. The business model innovation framework presented in this study has great implications in that it contributes to the achievement of startups, accelerators, and startup support organizations.

The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel (도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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A Conceptual Review of the Transaction Costs within a Distribution Channel (유통경로내의 거래비용에 대한 개념적 고찰)

  • Kwon, Young-Sik;Mun, Jang-Sil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2012
  • This paper undertakes a conceptual review of transaction cost to broaden the understanding of the transaction cost analysis (TCA) approach. More than 40 years have passed since Coase's fundamental insight that transaction, coordination, and contracting costs must be considered explicitly in explaining the extent of vertical integration. Coase (1937) forced economists to identify previously neglected constraints on the trading process to foster efficient intrafirm, rather than interfirm, transactions. The transaction cost approach to economic organization study regards transactions as the basic units of analysis and holds that understanding transaction cost economy is central to organizational study. The approach applies to determining efficient boundaries, as between firms and markets, and to internal transaction organization, including employment relations design. TCA, developed principally by Oliver Williamson (1975,1979,1981a) blends institutional economics, organizational theory, and contract law. Further progress in transaction costs research awaits the identification of critical dimensions in which transaction costs differ and an examination of the economizing properties of alternative institutional modes for organizing transactions. The crucial investment distinction is: To what degree are transaction-specific (non-marketable) expenses incurred? Unspecialized items pose few hazards, since buyers can turn toalternative sources, and suppliers can sell output intended for one order to other buyers. Non-marketability problems arise when specific parties' identities have important cost-bearing consequences. Transactions of this kind are labeled idiosyncratic. The summarized results of the review are as follows. First, firms' distribution decisions often prompt examination of the make-or-buy question: Should a marketing activity be performed within the organization by company employees or contracted to an external agent? Second, manufacturers introducing an industrial product to a foreign market face a difficult decision. Should the product be marketed primarily by captive agents (the company sales force and distribution division) or independent intermediaries (outside sales agents and distribution)? Third, the authors develop a theoretical extension to the basic transaction cost model by combining insights from various theories with the TCA approach. Fourth, other such extensions are likely required for the general model to be applied to different channel situations. It is naive to assume the basic model appliesacross markedly different channel contexts without modifications and extensions. Although this study contributes to scholastic research, it is limited by several factors. First, the theoretical perspective of TCA has attracted considerable recent interest in the area of marketing channels. The analysis aims to match the properties of efficient governance structures with the attributes of the transaction. Second, empirical evidence about TCA's basic propositions is sketchy. Apart from Anderson's (1985) study of the vertical integration of the selling function and John's (1984) study of opportunism by franchised dealers, virtually no marketing studies involving the constructs implicated in the analysis have been reported. We hope, therefore, that further research will clarify distinctions between the different aspects of specific assets. Another important line of future research is the integration of efficiency-oriented TCA with organizational approaches that emphasize specific assets' conceptual definition and industry structure. Finally, research of transaction costs, uncertainty, opportunism, and switching costs is critical to future study.

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