• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty evaluation

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A Study on Development of Reliability Assessment of GHG-CAPSS (GHG-CAPSS 신뢰도 평가 방법 개발을 위한 연구)

  • Kim, Hye Rim;Kim, Seung Do;Hong, Yu Deok;Lee, Su Bin;Jung, Ju Young
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.203-219
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    • 2011
  • Greenhouse gas(GHG) inventories were reported recently in various fields. It, however, has been rarely to mention about the accuracy and reliability of the GHG inventory results. Some reliable assessment methods were introduced to judge the accuracy of the GHG inventory results. It is, hence, critical to develop an evaluation methodology. This project was designed 1) to develop evaluation methodology for reliability of inventory results by GHG-CAPSS, 2) to check the feasibility of the developed evaluation methodology as a result of applying this methodology to two emission sources: liquid fossil fuel and landfill, and 3) to construct the technical roadmap for future role of GHG-CAPSS. Qualitative and quantitative assessment methodologies were developed to check the reliability and accuracy of the inventory results. Qualitative assessment methodology was designed to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of estimation methods of GHG emissions from emission and sink sources, activity data, emission factor, and quality management schemes of inventory results. On the other hand, quantitative assessment methodology was based on the uncertainty assessment of emission results. According to the results of applying the above evaluation methodologies to two emission sources, those seem to be working properly. However, it is necessary to develop source-specific rating systems because emission and sink sources exhibit source-specific characteristics of GHG emissions and sinks.

A Study on the Migration of Heavy Metals from Polycarbonate Food Contact Materials Using an Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) (식품용 폴리카보네이트 기구류 중 ICP-MS를 이용한 중금속 이행량 조사)

  • Park, Se-Jong;Park, So-Ra;Kim, MeeKyung;Choi, Jae Chun
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the migration levels of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) from polycarbonate food contact materials into food simulant at different temperatures ($70^{\circ}C$ and $100^{\circ}C$). The method was validated by linearity of calibration curves, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery, precision and uncertainty. All of 200 samples, including bottles, cups, containers, ladles, spoons and tongs were purchased from domestic markets and analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Mean concentrations of positive samples were higher at $100^{\circ}C$ than $70^{\circ}C$ as showing a dependency of migration temperature. The migration concentrations ranged from not-detected (ND) to $4.67{\mu}g/L$, ND to $0.49{\mu}g/L$L and ND to $2.91{\mu}g/L$ for Pb, Cd and As, respectively, which were far below the migration limits of Korea standards and specifications for food utensils, containers and packages.

Evaluation of hydropower dam water supply capacity (I): individual and integrated operation of hydropower dams in Bukhan river (발전용댐 이수능력 평가 연구(I): 북한강수계 개별 댐 및 댐군 용수공급능력 분석)

  • Jeong, Gimoon;Choi, Jeongwook;Kang, Doosun;Ahn, Jeonghwan;Kim, Taesoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2022
  • Recently, uncertainty in predicting available water resources is gradually increasing due to climate change and extreme weather conditions. Social interest in water management such as flood and drought prevention is also increasing, and after the unification of water management implemented in 2018, domestic water management is facing a major turning point. As part of such strengthening of water management capabilities, various studies are being conducted to utilize a hydropower dam for flood control and water supply purposes, which was mainly operated for hydroelectric power generation. However, since the dam evaluation methods developed based on a multi-purpose dam are being applied to hydropower dams, an additional evaluation approach that can consider the characteristics of hydropower dams is required. In this study, a new water supply capacity evaluation method is presented in consideration of the operational characteristics of hydropower dams in terms of water supply, and a connected reservoir simulation method is proposed to evaluate the comprehensive water supply capacity of a dam group operating in a river basin. The presented method was applied to the hydropower dams located in the Bukhan River basin, and the results of the water supply yield of individual dams and multi-reservoir systems were compared and analyzed. In the future, the role of hydropower dams for water supply during drought is expected to become more important, and this study can be used for sustainable domestic water management research using hydropower dams.

Rock Mechanics Site Characterization for HLW Disposal Facilities (고준위방사성폐기물 처분시설 부지에 대한 암반역학 부지특성화)

  • Um, Jeong-Gi;Hyun, Seung Gyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2022
  • The mechanical and thermal properties of the rock masses can affect the performance associated with both the isolating and retarding capacities of radioactive materials within the deep geological disposal system for High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW). In this study, the essential parameters for the site descriptive model (SDM) related to the rock mechanics and thermal properties of the HLW disposal facilities site were reviewed, and the technical background was explored through the cases of the preceding site descriptive models developed by SKB (Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company), Sweden and Posiva, Finland. SKB and Posiva studied parameters essential for the investigation and evaluation of mechanical and thermal properties, and derived a rock mechanics site descriptive model for safety evaluation and construction of the HLW disposal facilities. The rock mechanics SDM includes the results obtained from investigation and evaluation of the strength and deformability of intact rocks, fractures, and fractured rock masses, as well as the geometry of large-scaled deformation zones, the small-scaled fracture network system, thermal properties of rocks, and the in situ stress distribution of the disposal site. In addition, the site descriptive model should provide the sensitivity analysis results for the input parameters, and present the results obtained from evaluation of uncertainty.

Assessing the Impact of 'Marine Invasive and Harmful Species': A Semi-Quantitative Tool and Protocol for Environmental and Socio-Economic Evaluation ('해양교란유해종'의 영향 평가: 환경 및 사회경제적 평가를 위한 준정량 도구 및 프로토콜)

  • KWANG YOUNG KIM
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.116-138
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    • 2024
  • This study presents a new tool and protocol to assess the impact of 'Marine Invasive and Harmful Species' (MIHS) on marine environments and socio-economic aspects. It addresses shortcomings in the Marine Ecosystems Conservation and Management Act in South Korea by proposing an impact assessment framework divided into marine environmental and socio-economic groups. Six distinct evaluation categories are included in each group, and a semi-quantitative five-step scale is utilized to provide a flexible approach, addressing a variety of issues from ecological disturbances to effects on health and property. The assessment tool is applied through a systematic five-stage process based on the Delphi method. This approach posters collaboration among a diverse sets of experts and stakeholders, enabling a comprehensive evaluation that incorporates various perspectives. The study also examines strategies to effectively manage uncertainties and improve the consistency of the outcomes. The application of this assessment protocol is expected to be crucial in quantifying the ecological damage caused by MIHS and in identifying management and prevention priorities. The ultimate aim of this evaluation process is to aid decision-makers in developing strategies to preserve the marine ecosystem and mitigate socio-economic impacts.

SWAT model calibration/validation using SWAT-CUP I: analysis for uncertainties of objective functions (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT 모형 검·보정 I: 목적함수에 따른 불확실성 분석)

  • Yu, Jisoo;Noh, Joonwoo;Cho, Younghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to quantify the uncertainty that can be induced by the objective function when calibrating SWAT parameters using SWAT-CUP. SWAT model was constructed to estimate runoff in Naesenong-cheon, which is the one of mid-watershed in Nakdong River basin, and then automatic calibration was performed using eight objective functions (R2, bR2, NS, MNS, KGE, PBIAS, RSR, and SSQR). The optimum parameter sets obtained from each objective function showed different ranges, and thus the corresponding hydrologic characteristics of simulated data were also derived differently. This is because each objective function is sensitive to specific hydrologic signatures and evaluates model performance in an unique way. In other words, one objective function might be sensitive to the residual of the extreme value, so that well produce the peak value, whereas ignores the average or low flow residuals. Therefore, the hydrological similarity between the simulated and measured values was evaluated in order to select the optimum objective function. The hydrologic signatures, which include not only the magnitude, but also the ratio of the inclining and declining time in hydrograph, were defined to consider the timing of the flow occurrence, the response of watershed, and the increasing and decreasing trend. The results of evaluation were quantified by scoring method, and hence the optimal objective functions for SWAT parameter calibration were determined as MNS (342.48) and SSQR (346.45) with the highest total scores.

Criticality Uncertainty Analysis of Spent Fuel Transport Cask applying Burnup Credit (연소도이득효과(BUC) 적용 사용후핵연료 운반용기의 임계 불확실도 평가)

  • Lee, Gang-Ug;Park, Jea-Ho;Kim, Do-Hyung;Kim, Tae-Man;Yoon, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.191-198
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    • 2011
  • In general, conventional criticality analyses for spent fuel transport/dry storage systems have been performed based on assumption of fresh fuel concerning the potential uncertainties from number density calculation of Transuranic and Fission Products in spent fuel. However, because of economic loss due to the excessive criticality margin, recently the design of transport/dry storage systems with Burnup Credit(BUC) application has been actively developed. The uncertainties in criticality analyses on transport/storage systems with BUC technique show strong dependance upon initial enrichment and burnup rate, whereas those in the conventional criticality evaluation based on fresh fuel assumption do not show such a dependance. In this study, regulatory-required uncertainties of the criticality analyses for BK 26 Cask, which is conceptually designed spent fuel transport cask with BUC corresponding to the limiting circumstances on nuclear power plants in Korea, are evaluated as a function of initial enrichment and burnup rate. Results of this study will be used as basic data for spent fuel loading curve of BK 26 Cask.

A Grounded Theory Approach on Peoples' Adaptation Experience with Fibromyalgia Syndrome (섬유근통증후군 환자의 질병 적응경험에 관한 근거이론 연구)

  • Jeong, Chu-Yeong;Kim, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.381-393
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    • 2016
  • This was a qualitative study to explore and better understand the adaptation experience and processes of peoples with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS), as well as to develop a substantive theory using the grounded theory method. There were 13 patients (12 females and 1 male) who received FMS treatment from Rheumatic Medicine outpatient department of one general hospital. The data were collected through an in-depth interview between January and May of 2014. Transcribed interview contents were analyzed by the grounded theory method of Corbin and Strauss (2008). As a result, a total of 98 concepts, 26 sub-categories, and 10 categories were identified through the open coding process. The process of adaptation experience showed 4 steps: perception of uncertainty and limited condition, evaluation of self-control possibility and determinations of expectations of life, searching and trying of strategies, as well as self-regulation. The 4 types of adaptation experience were expansionary, complacently, effusively and withering. The 'protective self-regulation' theory was derived from the core category of 'learning to self-regulation method'. Patients with FMS has repeatedly attempted these strategies of protective self-regulation in order to gain stability from uncertainty and limited condition of the disease. Based on these results, it is necessary to develop an educational program for patients and families which has appropriate nursing intervention strategies in accordance with the types of adaptation.

Evaluation of the Output Dose of a Linear Accelerator Photon Beams by Using the Ionization Chamber TM31010 Series through TG-51 Protocol to Postal Monitoring Output of RPC for 5 Years (TM31010 계열의 공동이온전리함과 TG-51을 이용한 선형가속기광자선의 5년간 출력선량 평가)

  • Choi, Tae-Jin;Kim, Ok-Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.92-98
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    • 2011
  • This study is to keep the accuracy and stability of the output dose evaluations for linear accelerator photon beams by using the air ionization chambers (TM31010, 0.125 cc, PTW) through the Task Group 51 protocol. The absorbed dose to water calibration factor $N_{dw}{^{Co-60}}$ was delivered from the air kerma calibration factor $N_k$ which was provided from manufacture through SSDL calibration for determination of output factor. The ionization chamber of TM31010 series was reviewed the calibration factor and other parameters for reduce the uncertainty within ${\pm}2%$ discrepancy and we found the supplied $N_{dw}{^{Co-60}}$ which was derived from Nk has shown a -2.8% uncertainty compare to that of PSDL. The authors provided the program to perform the output dosimetry with TG-51 protocol as it is composed same screen of TG-51 worksheets. The evaluated dose by determination of output factor delivered to postal TLD block for comparison the output dose to that of MDACC (RPC) in postal monitoring program. The results have shown the $1.001{\pm}0.013$ for 6 MV and $0.997{\pm}0.012$ discrepancy for 15 MV X rays for 5 years followed. This study shows the evaluated outputs for linear accelerate photon beams are very close to that of international output monitor with small discrepancy of ${\pm}1.3%$ with high reliability and showing the gradually stability after 2010.

Determination of Coefficient of Variation of Shear Wave Velocity in Fill Dam for Reliability Based Analysis (신뢰성 기반 해석을 위한 국내 필댐 구성 재료의 전단파 속도 변동계수 결정)

  • Park, Hyung-Choon;Oh, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2020
  • Shear wave velocity (or shear modulus) is very important in the evaluation of seismic performance of a fill dam under an earthquake. A shear wave velocity profile can be determined by surface wave method such as HWAW and SASW methods but this profile has uncertainty caused by spatial variation of material property in a fill dam. This uncertainty in shear wave velocity profile could be considered using a coefficient of variation of material property in the reliability based analysis. In this paper, the possible 600 shear wave velocity profiles in the core and rockfill zone of fill dam were generated by the random shear wave velocity profile generation method, proposed by Hwang and Park, based on the field shear wave velocity profiles determined by the HWAW and SASW methods. And, through the statistical analysis of generated shear wave velocity profiles in the fill dam, the coefficient of variation (COV) of shear wave velocity with depth were evaluated for the core and rock filled zone of fill dam in Korea.