• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty evaluation

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Uncertainty Calculation Algorithm for the Estimation of the Radiochronometry of Nuclear Material (핵물질 연대측정을 위한 불확도 추정 알고리즘 연구)

  • JaeChan Park;TaeHoon Jeon;JungHo Song;MinSu Ju;JinYoung Chung;KiNam Kwon;WooChul Choi;JaeHak Cheong
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.345-357
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    • 2023
  • Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the international society for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclear activities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Bateman equation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values have uncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertainties should be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracy and reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty of measurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited by the underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than one generation, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulation such as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations, such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzed mathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability of radiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometry using Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results with a small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty calculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computational software. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristics based on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computational simulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, sampling iteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we compared models from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy compared to overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future research and comparisons·validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field, providing tools for the identification of signature nuclides and aiding in the research, development, comparison, and validation of related technologies.

Experimental Approach to Equalizing the Orifice Method with the Throughput One for the Measurement of TMP Pumping Speed

  • Lim, J.Y.;Kang, S.B.;Shin, J.H.;Koh, D.Y.;Cheung, W.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2010.08a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2010
  • Methods of the characteristics evaluation of turbo-molecular pumps (TMP) are well-defined in the international measurement standards such as ISO, PNEUROP, DIN, JIS, and AVS. The Vacuum Center in the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science has recently designed, constructed, and established the integrated characteristics evaluation system of TMPs based on the international documents by continuously pursuing and acquiring the reliable international credibility through measurement perfection. The measurement of TMP pumping speed is normally performed with the throughput and orifice methods dependent on the mass flow regions. However, in the UHV range of the molecular flow region, the high uncertainties of the gauges, mass flow rates, and conductance are too critical to precisely accumulate reliable data. With UHV gauges of uncertainties less than 15% and a calculated conductance of the orifice, about 35% of pumping speed uncertainties are experimentally derived in the pressure range of less than $10^{-6}$ mbar. In order to solve the uncertainty problems of pumping speeds in the UHV range, we introduced an SRG with 1% accuracy and a constant volume flow meter (CVFM) to measure the finite mass flow rates down to $10^{-3}$ mbar-L/s with 3% uncertainty for the throughput method. In this way we have performed the measurement of pumping speed down to less than $10^{-6}$ mbar with an uncertainty of 6% for a 1000 L/s TMP. In this article we suggest that the CVFM has an ability to measure the conductance of the orifice experimentally with flowing the known mass through the orifice chambers, so that we may overcome the discontinuity problem encountering during introducing two measurement methods in one pumping speed evaluation sequence.

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A Study on Comparison between the Propagation of Uncertainty by GUM and Monte-Carlo Simulation (측정 불확도 표현 지침서(GUM)와 Monte-Carlo Simulation에 의한 불확도 전파 결과의 비교 연구)

  • Jungkee Shu;Hyungsik Min;Minsu Park;Jin-Chun Woo;Jongsang Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2003
  • The expanded uncertainties calculated by the application of GUM -approximation and Monte-Carlo simulation were compared about the model equation of one-point calibration which is widely used for the measurements and chemical analysis. For the comparisons, we assumed a set of artificial data at the various level of concentration and dispersion of t or normal distribution. Mistakes of more then 50 % was revealed at the values calculated by GUM-approximation in comparison with those of Monte-Carlo simulation because of the excess dispersion from t-distribution and non-linearity by division in the equation. In contrary, the mistake of calculation due to non-linearity of the equation was not observed in the level of detection limits with the equation of one-point calibration, because of the relatively large values of uncertainty in response.

A Study on the Deterministic Evaluation Method of R&D Project in Food Industry (식품산업 연구개발의 결정론적 평가방법에 관한 연구)

  • 이종만;이근희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.14 no.23
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 1991
  • The preliminary, advanced and final evaluation of R&D project is essential in order to reduce loss of resource and opportunity and to minimize uncertainty resulting from optimal selection and efficient progress of R&D project. This thesis examined characteristics of deterministic evaluation, economical evaluation, and OR-approach evaluation as theoretical methodology of evaluation of R&D project applicable to food industry in Korea by using scoring method, one of deterministic evaluations. In addition, this thesis divided the evaluation factors for preliminary evaluation of R&D project into 5 groups and 30 factors on basis of the environment of domestic companies and set up the standard of each evaluation factors and contains marking-selecting way. But, generally, the evaluation model by this thesis, as the conditions of the business company environment are different to each other, contents to be set up evaluation factors, evaluation standard and decision method conforming to each the environment of the business companies with referring to as one standard of evaluation project for selecting R&D project.

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Development of Advanced Vehicle Tracking System Using the Uncertainty Processing of Past and Future Locations

  • Kim Dong Ho;Kim Jin Suk
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2004.08c
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    • pp.729-734
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    • 2004
  • The e-Logistics means the virtual business activity and service architecture among the logistics companies based on the Internet technology. The management of vehicles' location in most conventional vehicle tracking system has some critical defects when it deals with data which are continuously changed. It means the conventional vehicle tracking system based on the conventional database is unable eventually to cope with the environment that should manage the frequently changed location of vehicles. The important things in the evaluation of the vehicle tracking system is to determine the threshold of cost of database ,update period and communication period between vehicles and the system. In other words, the difference between the reallocation of vehicle and the data in database can evaluate the overall performance of vehicle tracking systems. Most of the previous works considers only the information that is valid at the current time, and is hard to manage efficiently the past and future information. To overcome this problem, the efforts on moving objects management system(MOMS) and uncertainty processing have been started from a few years ago. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty processing model and system implementation of moving object that tracks the location of the vehicles. We adopted both linear-interpolation method and trigonometric function to chase up the location of vehicles for the past time as well as future time, respectively. We also explain the comprehensive examples of MOMS and uncertainty processing in parcel application that is one of major application of e-Logistics domain.

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A STUDY ON THE GENERATING SYSTEM RELIABILITY INDEX EVALUATION WITH CONSIDERING THE LOAD FORECASTING UNCERTAINTY (수요예측에 오차를 고려한 신뢰도 지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Song, K.Y.;Kim, Y.H.;Cha, J.M.;Oh, K.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1991.07a
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    • pp.402-405
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    • 1991
  • This paper represents a new method for computing reliability indices by using Large Deviation method which is one of the probabilistic production cost simulations. The reliability measures are based on the models used for the loads and for the generating unit failure states. In computing these measures it has been tacitly assumed that the values of all parameters in the models are precisely known. In fact, however, some of these values must often be chosen with a considerable degree of uncertainty involved. This is particularly true for the forecast peak loads in the load model, where there is an inherent uncertainty in the method of forecasting, which are frequently based on insufficient statistics. In this paper, the effect of load forecasting uncertainty on the LOLP(Loss of Load Probability), is investigated. By applying the Large Deviation method to the IEEE Rilability Test System, it is verified that the proposed method is generally very accurate and very fast for computing system reliability indices.

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Development of Uncertainty Evaluation Model for Vacuum Measurement Standards (진공측정표준의 불확도 평가모델 개발)

  • Hong, S.S.;Lim, J.Y.;Shin, Y.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.313-321
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    • 2011
  • The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM), a static volume expansion system (SVES), and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (ODES). For each system explict measurement model equations with multiple variables are respectively given. According to ISO standards, all these system variables errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U).

Uncertainty Study: Information Seeking Behaviors of Doctoral Students in Business Management (정보행태 불확신성에 관한 연구 - 경영학분야 박사과정 연구자들을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Yang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.65-89
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    • 2012
  • Using grounded theory, this study investigated users' information seeking behaviors associated with their perceptions of uncertainty. Based on a theoretical sampling, 17 doctoral students in the field of business management were recruited. Data was collected through the methods of questionnaire, interviewing, and think-aloud descriptions. The results identified user perceptions of uncertainty in the following stages: identification of information needs, selection of information systems, selection of search terms, actual use of systems, and evaluation of search results. In addition, positive aspects of uncertainties were presented. Major implications relate to information system and service improvements.