• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty assessment

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Changes and Improvements of the Standardized Eddy Covariance Data Processing in KoFlux (표준화된 KoFlux 에디 공분산 자료 처리 방법의 변화와 개선)

  • Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Kim, Jongho;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Cho, Sungsik
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2018
  • The standardized eddy covariance flux data processing in KoFlux has been updated, and its database has been amended accordingly. KoFlux data users have not been informed properly regarding these changes and the likely impacts on their analyses. In this paper, we have documented how the current structure of data processing in KoFlux has been established through the changes and improvements to ensure transparency, reliability and usability of the KoFlux database. Due to increasing diversity and complexity of flux site instrumentation and organization, we have re-implemented the previously ignored or simplified procedures in data processing (e.g., frequency response correction, stationarity test), and added new methods for $CH_4$ flux gap-filling and $CO_2$ flux correction and partitioning. To evaluate the effects of the changes, we processed the data measured at a flat and homogeneous paddy field (i.e., HPK) and a deciduous forest in complex and heterogeneous topography (i.e., GDK), and quantified the differences. Based on the results from our overall assessment, it is confirmed that (1) the frequency response correction (HPK: 11~18% of biases for annually integrated values, GDK: 6~10%) and the stationarity test (HPK: 4~19% of biases for annually integrated values, GDK: 9~23%) are important for quality control and (2) the minimization of the missing data and the choice of the appropriate driver (rather than the choice of the gap-filling method) are important to reduce the uncertainty in gap-filled fluxes. These results suggest the future directions for the data processing technology development to ensure the continuity of the long-term KoFlux database.

Effect of Ground-fogging on Target and Non-target Insects in Korean Pine Forests (지상 연막 방제가 잣나무림 내 표적 및 비표적 곤충에 미치는 영향)

  • Jang, Tae Woon;Jung, Jong-Kook;Kim, Mannyeon;Kim, Jongkuk;Jung, Chansik;Koh, Sanghyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.509-517
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to assess effect of thiacloprid fogging on non-target insect communities in Korean white pine forests. In addition, we assessed effect of thiacloprid fogging on mortality of Monochamus saltuarius as a vector of pine wood nematodes, and Apis mellifera as a non-target species. We compared abundance, species richness, and compostion of insects, and mortality of two insects among four treatment groups (control and thiacloprid-fogged groups with 3 different doses) located in the Kangwon National University Forest. For sampling of insects, 6 pitfall and 2 multi-funnel traps and 3 waterproof cloth sheets were placed in each study plot. In addition, M. saltuarius and A. mellifera were put into each meshed cage which installed at 7 m and 15 m heights in center of each study plot. Thiacloprid was fogged only once (middle May) in each plot using a fogging machine. Overall, thiacloprid fogging was appeared to be low toxicity to the abundance, species richness, and compostion of insects and mortality of A. mellifera, while it seems effectively impact on the mortality of M. saltuarius. However, thiacloprid fogging seems more influenced by microclimates in forests because the mortality of M. saltuarius in mesh cages was different according to heights and spatial locations. To control the population density and dispersal of M. saltuarius using by fogging techniques, therefore, it may be necessary to minimize the uncertainty about the effectiveness of thiacloprid fogging by improving the fogging techniques.

Toxicity Assessment and Establishment Acceptable Daily Intake of Penthiopyrad (펜티오피라드(Penthiopyrad)의 독성평가와 일일섭취허용량 설정)

  • Jeong, Mi-Hye;Hong, Soon-Sung;Park, Kyung-Hun;Kim, Chan-Sub;Park, Jae-Eup;Hong, Moo-Ki;Im, Moo-Hyeog;Kim, Young-Bum;Han, Bum-Seok;Han, Jeung-Sul
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2010
  • Penthiopyrad is a fungicide agent in types of pyrazole which is showing the effect of prevention in fungal disease and powdery mildew. In order to register this new pesticide, reports of acute toxicity and chronic toxicity by animal study were examined to set acceptable daily intake to evaluate hazards of consumers. Acute toxicity was low in toxic, and it did not have the effect of acute dermal toxicity, acute eye irritation, or skin sensitization. As the result of the study in chronic toxicity, the common effect of chemical appeared in the liver and thyroid which was proven as a toxic effect. Two-generation reproduction toxicity, genotoxicity, and prenatal development toxicity were not proven. As the result of carcinogenic study, increase of thyiroid follicular adenoma in the rat and the frequency of liver hepatocellar adenoma in mice were also increased. However, it was decided that the threshold value on the effect in chemicals could be controlled through study liver enzyme induction. Therefore, the ADI for penthiopyrad is 0.081 mg/kg/ bw/day, based on the NOAEL of 8.10 mg/kg bw/day of twelve-months dogs study and applying an uncertainty factor of 100.

The Effects of Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Evaluations through Perceived Risks in Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (창업가의 인지편향이 지각된 위험과 조절된 창업효능감에 따라 창업기회평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Daeyop;Park, Jaehwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.95-112
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    • 2020
  • This paper is to investigate how cognitive bias of college students and entrepreneurs relates to perceived risks and entrepreneurial opportunities that represent uncertainty, and how various cognitive bias and entrepreneurial efficacy In the same way. The purpose of this study is to find improvement points of entrepreneurship education for college students and to suggest problems and improvement possibilities in the decision making process of current entrepreneurs. This empirical study is a necessary to improve the decision-making of individuals who want to start a business at the time when various attempts are made to activate the start-up business and increase the sustainability of the existing SME management. And understanding of the difference in opportunity evaluation, and suggests that it is necessary to provide good opportunities together with the upbringing of entrepreneurs. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, questionnaires were conducted for college students and entrepreneurs. A total of 363 questionnaire data were obtained and demonstrated through structural equation modeling. This study confirms that there is some relationship between perceived risk and cognitive bias. Overconfidence and control illusions among cognitive bias have a significant relationship between perceived risk and wealth. Especially, it is confirmed that control illusion of college students has a significant relationship with perceived risk. Second, cognitive bias demonstrated some significant relationship with opportunity evaluation. Although we did not find evidence that excess self-confidence is related to opportunity evaluation, we have verified that control illusions and current status bias are related to opportunity evaluation. Control illusions were significant in both college students and entrepreneurs. Third, perceived risk has a negative relationship with opportunity evaluation. All students, regardless of whether they are college students or entrepreneurs, judge opportunities positively if they perceive low risk. Fourth, it can be seen from the college students 'group that entrepreneurial efficacy has a moderating effect between perceived risk and opportunity evaluation, but no significant results were found in the entrepreneurs' group. Fifth, the college students and entrepreneurs have different cognitive bias, and they have proved that there is a different relationship between entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and perceived risk. On the whole, there are various cognitive biases that are caused by time pressure or stress on college students and entrepreneurs who have to make judgments in uncertain opportunities, and in this respect, they can improve their judgment in the future. At the same time, university students can have a positive view of new opportunities based on high entrepreneurial efficacy, but if they fully understand the intrinsic risks of entrepreneurship through entrepreneurial education and fully understand the cognitive bias present in direct entrepreneurial experience, You will get a better opportunity assessment. This study has limitations in that it is based on the fact that university students and entrepreneurs are integrated, and that the survey respondents are selected by the limited random sampling method. It is necessary to conduct more systematic research based on more faithful data in the absence of the accumulation of entrepreneurial research data. Second, the translation tools used in the previous studies were translated and the meaning of the measurement tools might not be conveyed due to language differences. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a more precise scale for the accuracy of the study. Finally, complementary research should be done to identify what competitive opportunities are and what opportunities are appropriate for entrepreneurs.

A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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Comparison between Solar Radiation Estimates Based on GK-2A and Himawari 8 Satellite and Observed Solar Radiation at Synoptic Weather Stations (천리안 2A호와 히마와리 8호 기반 일사량 추정값과 종관기상관측망 일사량 관측값 간의 비교)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2023
  • Solar radiation that is measured at relatively small number of weather stations is one of key inputs to crop models for estimation of crop productivity. Solar radiation products derived from GK-2A and Himawari 8 satellite data have become available, which would allow for preparation of input data to crop models, especially for assessment of crop productivity under an agrivoltaic system where crop and power can be produced at the same time. The objective of this study was to compare the degree of agreement between the solar radiation products obtained from those satellite data. The sub hourly products for solar radiation were collected to prepare their daily summary for the period from May to October in 2020 during which both satellite products for solar radiation were available. Root mean square error (RMSE) and its normalized error (NRMSE) were determined for daily sum of solar radiation. The cumulative values of solar radiation for the study period were also compared to represent the impact of the errors for those products on crop growth simulations. It was found that the data product from the Himawari 8 satellite tended to have smaller values of RMSE and NRMSE than that from the GK-2A satellite. The Himawari 8 satellite product had smaller errors at a large number of weather stations when the cumulative solar radiation was compared with the measurements. This suggests that the use of Himawari 8 satellite products would cause less uncertainty than that of GK2-A products for estimation of crop yield. This merits further studies to apply the Himawari 8 satellites to estimation of solar power generation as well as crop yield under an agrivoltaic system.

Evaluation of Hydrogeological Characteristic of Natural Barrier in Korea for Establishing Safety Guidelines of Deep Geological High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Site (고준위방사성폐기물 심층처분 부지 수리 지질 안전 규제를 위한 국내 지질환경 수리 특성 평가)

  • Suwan So;Jiho Jeong;Jaesung Park;Hyeongmok Lee;Subi Lee;Sujin Kim;Sinda Mbarki;Jina Jeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.397-416
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    • 2024
  • This study assessed the hydrogeological properties of the deep geological environment to develop safety criteria for the natural barriers used in the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Korea. The assessment focused on the distribution and trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability properties appropriate for the domestic geological environment, using various in-situ hydraulic test data collected for groundwater development and management. To develop a depth-hydrogeological property relationship model suitable for domestic conditions, the study reviewed various international research examples and applied a representative model that explains the trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability with depth. The development of the model suitable for Korea involved applying ensemble regression analysis to account for the uncertainty of various factors in the collected data. The results confirmed that existing international depth-hydrogeological property relationship models adequately describe the characteristics of the domestic geological environment. Considering the preferred hydrogeological criteria suggested by countries like Sweden, Germany, and Canada, there is a high likelihood that a suitable geological environment exists in Korea. Additionally, the application of hydrogeological criteria indicative of low-permeability environments showed that suitable conditions for disposal construction increase at depths greater than 300 m, where the influence of fractures on groundwater flow might be minimal at depths exceeding 500 m. This research can serve as foundational information for establishing hydrogeological safety standards for natural barriers in Korea according to international regulatory guidelines.

Review of 2015 Major Medical Decisions (2015년 주요 의료판결 분석)

  • Yoo, Hyun Jung;Lee, Dong Pil;Lee, Jung Sun;Jeong, Hye Seung;Park, Tae Shin
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.299-346
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    • 2016
  • There were also various decisions made in medical area in 2015. In the case that an inmate in a sanatorium was injured due to the reason which can be attributable to the sanatorium and the social welfare foundation that operates the sanatorium request treatment of the patient, the court set the standard of fixation of a party in medical contract. In the case that the family of the patient who was declared brain dead required withdrawal of meaningless life sustaining treatment but the hospital rejected and continued the treatment, the court made a decision regarding chargeable fee for such treatment. When it comes to the eye brightening operation which received measure of suspension from the Ministry of Health and Welfare for the first time in February, 2011, because of uncertainty of its safety, the court did not accept the illegality of such operation itself, however, ordered compensation of the whole damage based on the violation of liability for explanation, which is the omission of explanation about the fact that the cost-effectiveness is not sure as it is still in clinical test stage. There were numerous cases that courts actively acknowledged malpractices; in the cases of paresis syndrome after back surgery, quite a few malpractices during the surgery were acknowledged by the court and in the case of nosocomial infection, hospital's negligence to cause such nosocomial infection was acknowledged by the court. There was a decision which acknowledged malpractice by distinguishing the duty of installation of emergency equipment according to the Emergency Medical Service Act and duty of emergency measure in emergency situations, and a decision which acknowledged negligence of a hospital if the hospital did not take appropriate measures, although it was a very rare disease. In connection with the scope of compensation for damage, there were decisions which comply with substantive truth such as; a court applied different labor ability loss rate as the labor ability loss rate decreased after result of reappraisal of physical ability in appeal compared to the one in the first trial, and a court acknowledged lower labor ability loss rate than the result of appraisal of physical ability considering the condition of a patient, etc. In the event of any damage caused by malpractice, in regard to whether there is a limitation on liability in fee charge after such medical malpractice, the court rejected the hospital's claim for setoff saying that if the hospital only continued treatments to cure the patient or prevent aggravation of disease, the hospital cannot charge Medical bills to the patient. In regard to the provision of the Medical Law that prohibit medical advertisement which was not reviewed preliminarily and punish the violation of such, a decision of unconstitutionality was made as it is a precensorship by an administrative agency as the deliberative bodies such as Korean Medical Association, etc. cannot be denied to be considered as administrative bodies. When it comes to the issue whether PRP treatment, which is commonly performed clinically, should be considered as legally determined uninsured treatment, the court made it clear that legally determined uninsured treatment should not be decided by theoretical possibility or actual implementation but should be acknowledged its medical safety and effectiveness and included in medical care or legally determined uninsured treatment. Moreover, court acknowledged the illegality of investigation method or process in the administrative litigation regarding evaluation of suitability of sanatorium, however, denied the compensation liability or restitution of unjust enrichment of the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service and the National Health Insurance Corporation as the evaluation agents did not cause such violation intentionally or negligently. We hope there will be more decisions which are closer to substantive truth through clear legal principles in respect of variously arisen issues in the future.

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