• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.851-861
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• 2021

This study aims to explore the specific risks in family small-medium enterprises (SMEs) and explain how they manage these risks to sustain and expand. In Indonesia, family business composes around 95 percent of all businesses and contributes about 80 percent to the country's economy. SMEs contribute approximately 57.8 percent to the nation's gross domestic product. Risk management poses challenges to the family business's survival, as family members do not take actions on risk. The assessment of risk is difficult and family businesses lack the ability to determine risk management priorities, including risk management review processes to evaluate risk, thus leading to family business failures. Applying the case study approach, in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted in seven family SMEs comprising fifteen informants. Additionally, a focus group discussion consisting of three experts is conducted to reaffirm the findings from the interviews, observations, and field notes. The research identified the specific risks and how the family owners strategize to safeguard against these risks such as cash flow deficiency, operations dysfunction, cultural frailty, disharmony, transgenerational entrepreneurship failure, political uncertainty, and unprofessionalism. Comprehending these risks and their strategic decisions elucidated in this research could enable the family owners and key non-family professionals to work hand-in-hand to thrive over the family business risks together. Further avenues of research regarding family business risk management are also suggested in this study.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1995.07b
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• pp.562-564
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• 1995

This paper proposes a new algorithm for maintenance scheduling with considering load forecast uncertainty. The proposed algorithm is based on the equivalent load of effective load carrying capability(ELCC) of generators. The uncertainty of forecasted load is considered as a normal distribution probability density function. For maintenance scheduling, reserve levelization method and risk levelization method are used in this study. To test the algorithm, we applied the proposed method to IEEE reliability test system(IEEE RTS). As a result, we verified the validity of the proposed method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.461-471
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• 2015

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.197-208
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• 1999

Recently, risk management is a very important issue in many industrial applications. This paper describes a general structure for risk management and suggests a new risk assessment methodology. In risk management applications of financial or insurance industries, there are many methodologies developed for practical use. However, areas for improvement exist to facilitate the application of the methods. Two major risk assessment methodologies have been developed and widely applied in system engineering. One is in its original development application from aerospace and defense industry, and the other was developed in applied software engineering. In a large and complicated system development application, an effective risk management can reduce total development cost as well as uncertainty in achieving project goals of schedule and performance.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.723-726
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• 2008

It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established, uncertainty analysis, therefore, are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an expected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.367-379
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• 2019

Purpose: This study aims to propose a framework for climate change risk management by analyzing characteristics of climate-induced disasters. Method: The recent global and domestic trends of loss and damage under natural disaster events and the characteristics of climate-induced disasters were analyzed to design a framework for climate change risk management. Results: In consideration of the uncertainty of climate risk and various spatio-temporal scales of climate disasters, a new framework is suggested for comprehensive climate risk management that includes risk assessment, goal setting, planning, monitoring and evaluation, learning and adjustment. The framework aims at an iterative process that is activated by stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Pilot studies need to be conducted to revise and polish the framework in the future, and institutional arrangements should be prepared for the effective implementation of the comprehensive climate risk management.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.747-757
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• 2021

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillover from financial uncertainty (FU) of the United States (US) to the stock markets of SAARC member countries including India, Sri-Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The empirical literature overlooked SAARC countries and the FU index. Based on the estimation method, the data of FU is available for three different forecast horizons including 1-month, 3-months, and 12-months. For empirical analysis, monthly data is used from February 2013 to September 2019. EGARCH model is employed to investigate the volatility spillover effects. The findings of the study show that the spillover effect of FU varies with the forecast horizon. The FU with a higher forecast horizon has a significant spillover effect on more countries. The spillover effect of US financial uncertainty is negative in most of the SAARC countries. Bangladesh stock market is influenced by FU with all three forecast horizons whereas the volatility of the Pakistan stock market is not influenced by FU with any forecast horizon. The findings are consistent with the concept of "limited trade openness" in the financial markets of emerging economies. The emerging economies avoid financial market openness to minimize the risk of spillover of other countries.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.28-36
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• 2011

Risk management is popularly and widely used in various industries to handle uncertainty that can negatively affect their businesses. While in the current Information-Technology oriented age, software packages are designed to assist in carrying out risk management processes, the construction industry does not seem to have software that is tuned to its specific characteristics and processes. Therefore, this study first explores the types of software that are commonly used for risk management in the Singapore construction industry. Also, using one-sample t-test, it is tested if the software programs used in the construction industry have effectively catered the needs of the users. For the analysis, a survey questionnaire was developed and the representatives from 34 companies participated in the survey. Furthermore, this study also makes use of the current risk management framework defined in ISO31000 to design a risk management software algorithm that can suit the needs for the Singapore construction industry. The results from this study will contribute to identifying strategic areas, in terms of use of risk management software, on which the industry needs to focus, ultimately enhancing their performance of risk management.

• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.97-129
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• 2008

We are living in the time of high probability of technological risk due to increased rate of technology development and diffusion of new technologies. Resolving uncertainties, the basic attribution of risk, by accumulating knowledge over the risk factors of certain technology is critical to management of technological risk. In many cases of technological risks, high uncertainty of knowledge is commonly mentioned reason for public controversies on risk management. However, the type of technological risk with low social agreement and low uncertainty of knowledge, the main reason for public controversy is absence of social agreement. Public debates on the risks of mobile phones electromagnetic fields(EMF) to human health comes under this category. The knowledge uncertainty on human health effect of mobile phones EMF has been lowered increasingly by accumulating enormous volume of knowledge though scientists have not reached a final conclusion whether it pose a risk to the physical and mental health of the general population or not. In contrast with civil organizations calling for precautionary approach based regulation, the mobile phone industry is cling to the position of no-regulation-needed by arguing no clear evidence to prove health risks of mobile phone EMF has found. In Korea, government set exposure standards based on a measurement called the 'specific absorption rate'(SAR) and require the mobile phone industry to open SAR information to the public by their own decision. From the view of pro-regulation side based on precautionary approach, technology risk managament of mobile phones EMF in Korea is highly limited and formalized one with limited measuring of SAR on head part only and problematic self-regulated opening of information about SAR to the public. As far as the government keeps having priority on protecting interest of mobile phone industry over precautionary regulation of mobile phones EMF, the disagreement between civil organizations and the government will not resolved. The risk of mobile phones EMF to human health have high probability of being underestimated in the rate and damage of risk than objectively estimated ones due to familiarity of mobile phone technology. And this can be the cause of destructive social dispute or devastating disaster. To prevent such disastrous results, technology risk management, which integrating the goals of safety with economic growth in public policy and designing and promoting risk communication, is required.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.