• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty analysis

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버어리종 담배 중 질산성 질소에 대한 측정불확도 (Uncertainty of Measurement in Nitrate Analysis from Burley Leaf Tobacco)

  • 이정민;이경구;한상빈
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.226-234
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    • 2005
  • The uncertainty of measurement in nitrate from burley leaf tobacco by continuous-flow analysis method was evaluated following internationally accepted guidelines. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of nitrate were weight of standard and sample, purity of standard, dilution of standard solution, calibration curve, water content, etc. The calculation of uncertainty based on the GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) and EURACHEM/CITAC Guide. An expanded uncertainty was obtained by multiplying the combined standard uncertainty with a coverage factor (k) calculated from the effective degree of freedom. The concentration of nitrate from burley leaf tobacco was $2.09\%$ and the expanded uncertainty by multiplying by the coverage factor(k, 2.20) was $0.13\%\;at\;a\;95\%$ confidence level.

황색종 담배중 전알카로이드와 환원당 분석에 대한 불확도 측정 (Uncertainty of Total Alkaloids and Reducing Sugar Determination in Flue-cured Tobacco)

  • 백순옥;장기철;이운철;한상빈
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2001
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the uncertainty in the analysis of total alkaloids and reducing sugar content in flue-cured tobacco. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of total alkaloids and reducing sugar were the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the addition of extracting solution into the sample, the preparation of standard solution, the precision of calibration curve for standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis, and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. For the calculating uncertainties, Type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and Type B by the information based on supplier’s catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty was caused by the calibration curve of standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis, the volume measurement of 1$m\ell$, and the purity of nicotine reference material in the preparation of standard solution. The uncertainty in the addition of extracting solution, the sample weighing, the volume measurement of 100$m\ell$, and the determination of water content of tobacco contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty of total alkaloids and reducing sugar in flue-cured tobacco at 95% level of confidence was $\pm$0.12% and $\pm$0.54%, respectively.

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류마티스 관절염 환자의 불확실성 인지에 영향을 주는 요인 탐색 (A Study on Factors Influencing the Appraisal of Uncertainty in Patients having Rheumatoid Arthritis)

  • 유경희
    • 근관절건강학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.277-296
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to investigate the influencing factors on the appraisal of uncertainty in patients having rheumatoid arthritis. Subjects of the study constituted 528 patients who visited outpatient clinics of two university hospitals and one general hospital in Seoul. Self report questionnaires were used to measure the variables influencing the appraisal of uncertainty. Reliability coefficients of these instruments were found Cronbach's Alpha=$.70{\sim}.96$. In data analysis, SPSS PC 6.0 program was utilized for descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation, logistic and multiple regression analysis. The results of logistic and multiple regression analysis were as follows 1) Among the independent variables, significant factors to explain the appraisal of uncertainty in patients were uncertainty(p<.001), severity of illness(p<.05), educational level (p<.05) and age (p<.05). 2) When patients appraised uncertainty as "Danger", significant factors to explain the appraisal of uncertainty were uncertainty(p<.0001), age(p<.0005), severity of illness(p<.001), educational level (p<.05). 3) When patients appraised uncertainty as "Opportunity", significant factors to predict the appraisal of uncertainty were uncertainty(p<.0005), social support(p<.0005), severity of illness(p<.005), credible authority(p<.05), age(p<.05) and educational level (p<.05).

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A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC

  • Price, Dean;Maile, Andrew;Peterson-Droogh, Joshua;Blight, Derreck
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권3호
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    • pp.790-802
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    • 2022
  • Large-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimate important reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitably result in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on the Advanced Test Reactor Critical (ATRC) facility housed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and addresses some complications due to Monte Carlo uncertainty when performing these analyses. This approach for UQ/SA includes consideration of Monte Carlo code uncertainty in computed sensitivities, consideration of uncertainty from directly measured parameters and a comparison of results obtained from brute-force Monte Carlo UQ versus UQ obtained from a surrogate model. These methodologies are applied to the uncertainty and sensitivity of keff for two sets of uncertain parameters involving fuel plate geometry and fuel plate composition. Results indicate that the less computationally-expensive method for uncertainty quantification involving a linear surrogate model provides accurate estimations for keff uncertainty and the Monte Carlo uncertainty in calculated keff values can have a large effect on computed linear model parameters for parameters with low influence on keff.

실내 라돈오염 해석을 위한 2구역 모델의 민감도 및 불확실성 분석 (Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two-Compartment Model for the Indoor Radon Pollution)

  • 유동한;이한수;김상준;양지원
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.327-334
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    • 2002
  • The work presents sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of 2-compartment model for the evaluation of indoor radon pollution in a house. Effort on the development of such model is directed towards the prediction of the generation and transfer of radon in indoor air released from groundwater. The model is used to estimate a quantitative daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon based on exposure scenarios. However, prediction from the model has uncertainty propagated from uncertainties in model parameters. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantitative uncertainty analysis in conjunction with the developed model. An importance analysis is performed to rank input parameters with respect to their contribution to model prediction based on the uncertainty analysis. The results obtained from this study would be used to the evaluation of human risk by inhalation associated with the indoor pollution by radon released from groundwater.

원자력발전소 모터제어반 스위치기어실 화재 모델링 입력변수 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of Fire Modeling Input Parameters for Motor Control Center in Switchgear Room of Nuclear Power Plants)

  • 강대일;양준언;유성연
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.40-52
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    • 2012
  • 본 논문에서는 원자력발전소의 모터제어반 스위치기어실 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 화재모델링은 FDS 5.5를 사용하였고 FDS 입력변수 램던 샘플링은 라틴하이퍼쿠브 몬테칼로 방법을 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 수행한 입력변수 불확실성 분석 결과를 비교하기 위해 NUREG-1934의 화재모델링 결정론적 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석 방법을 이용한 분석도 수행하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구의 모터제어반 스위치 기어룸 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석방법이 NUREG-1934의 방법보다 보수적인 결과를 얻을 수 있음을 확인하였다.

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DATA-BASED MODELS FOR ESTIMATING COLLAPSE MOMENTS OF WALL-THINNED PIPE BENDS AND ELBOWS

  • Kim, Dong-Su;Kim, Ju-Hyun;Na, Man-Gyun;Kim, Jin-Weon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제44권3호
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    • pp.323-330
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    • 2012
  • The development of data-based models requires uncertainty analysis to explain the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of the support vector regression (SVR) model, which is a data-based model, was performed because previous research showed that the SVR method accurately estimates the collapse moments of wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows. The uncertainty analysis method used in this study was an analytic uncertainty analysis method, and estimates with a 95% confidence interval were obtained for 370 test data points. From the results, the prediction interval (PI) was very narrow, which means that the predicted values are quite accurate. Therefore, the proposed SVR method can be used effectively to assess and validate the integrity of the wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows.

입원 아동 어머니가 지각하는 불확실성과 불안 및 간호요구도 (A Study on Uncertainty, Anxiety and Nursing Needs in Mothers of Hospitalized Children)

  • 유경희
    • 기본간호학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate uncertainty, anxiety and nursing needs in mothers of hospitalized children. Method: Self report questionnaires were used to measure the variables. Variables were uncertainty, anxiety and nursing needs. In data analysis, SPSSWIN 12.0 program was utilized for descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficients, and regression analysis. Results: Cronbach's alphas of .84 to .97 indicate reliability of the instruments. Uncertainty positively correlated with anxiety (r=.624, p<.001) and nursing needs (r=.147, p<.05), and anxiety positively correlated with nursing needs (r=.262, p<.01). In regression analysis of anxiety, uncertainty, nursing assessment of nursing needs and duration of hospitalization were significant predictors, explaining 45.1% of variance. Conclusion: Uncertainty was a significant predictor of anxiety in mothers whose children were hospitalized. Therefore, nursing interventions which decrease uncertainty must be developed for these mothers.

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폐열회수 환기유닛의 인증시험 방법에 대한 오차분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of Test Method for Heat Recovery Ventilators)

  • 한화택;추연복
    • 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한설비공학회 2006년도 하계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.423-428
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    • 2006
  • Twenty nine HRV models have been tested for last two years since the attestation system has been started by KARSE. It is the objective of the present study to analyze the performance test results. Uncertainty analysis has been conducted to find the effects of measured variables on the uncertainties of test results. The uncertainty of enthalpy is found to be affected by the uncertainty of wet bulb temperature significantly, but not by that of dry bulb temperature for the present range of parameters. The uncertainty of effective enthalpy efficiency is calculated to be 6%P for the cooling condition, and 3%P for the heating condition approximately. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the test results, the uncertainty of wet bulb temperature should be minimized and the indoor/outdoor test conditions should be modified so as to increase the enthalpy difference.

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Important measure analysis of uncertainty parameters in bridge probabilistic seismic demands

  • Song, Shuai;Wu, Yuan H.;Wang, Shuai;Lei, Hong G.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2022
  • A moment-independent importance measure analysis approach was introduced to quantify the effects of structural uncertainty parameters on probabilistic seismic demands of simply supported girder bridges. Based on the probability distributions of main uncertainty parameters in bridges, conditional and unconditional bridge samples were constructed with Monte-Carlo sampling and analyzed in the OpenSees platform with a series of real seismic ground motion records. Conditional and unconditional probability density functions were developed using kernel density estimation with the results of nonlinear time history analysis of the bridge samples. Moment-independent importance measures of these uncertainty parameters were derived by numerical integrations with the conditional and unconditional probability density functions, and the uncertainty parameters were ranked in descending order of their importance. Different from Tornado diagram approach, the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the whole probability distributions of bridge seismic demands and the interactions of uncertainty parameters were considered simultaneously in the importance measure analysis approach. Results show that the interaction of uncertainty parameters had significant impacts on the seismic demand of components, and in some cases, it changed the most significant parameters for piers, bearings and abutments.