Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5516/NET.09.2011.032

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DATA-BASED MODELS FOR ESTIMATING COLLAPSE MOMENTS OF WALL-THINNED PIPE BENDS AND ELBOWS  

Kim, Dong-Su (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute)
Kim, Ju-Hyun (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University)
Na, Man-Gyun (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University)
Kim, Jin-Weon (Department of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University)
Publication Information
Nuclear Engineering and Technology / v.44, no.3, 2012 , pp. 323-330 More about this Journal
Abstract
The development of data-based models requires uncertainty analysis to explain the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of the support vector regression (SVR) model, which is a data-based model, was performed because previous research showed that the SVR method accurately estimates the collapse moments of wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows. The uncertainty analysis method used in this study was an analytic uncertainty analysis method, and estimates with a 95% confidence interval were obtained for 370 test data points. From the results, the prediction interval (PI) was very narrow, which means that the predicted values are quite accurate. Therefore, the proposed SVR method can be used effectively to assess and validate the integrity of the wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows.
Keywords
Collapse Moment; Uncertainty Analysis; Support Vector Regression; Wall-thinned Defect;
Citations & Related Records

Times Cited By Web Of Science : 1  (Related Records In Web of Science)
Times Cited By SCOPUS : 0
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 J. W. Hines, D. Garvey, R. Seibert, and A. Usynin, "Technical Review of On-Line Monitoring Techniques for Performance Assessment," Volume 2: Theoretical Issues, NUREG/CR-6895, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C (2007).
2 J. W. Hines, J. Garvey, D. Garvey, and R. Seibert, "Technical Review of On-Line Monitoring Techniques for Performance Assessment," Volume 3: Limiting Case Studies, NUREG/ CR-6895, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C (2008).
3 R. Tibshirani, "A Comparison of Some Error Estimates for Neural Network Models," Neural Computation, vol. 8, pp. 152-163 (1996).   DOI
4 M. G. Na, J. W. Kim, and I. J. Hwang, "Collapse Moment Estimation by Support Vector Machines for Wall-Thinned Pipe Bends and Elbows," Nucl. Eng. Des., vol. 237, pp. 451-459 (2007).   DOI
5 M. G. Na, J. W. Kim, and I. J. Hwang, "Estimation of Collapse Moment for the Wall-Thinned Pipe Bends Using Fuzzy Model Identification," Nucl. Eng. & Des., vol. 236, pp. 1335-1343 (2006).   DOI
6 K. Yahiaoui, D. G. Moffat, and D. N. Moreton, "Piping Elbows with Cracks, Part 2: A Parametric Study of the Influence of Crack Size on Limit Loads due to Pressure and Opening Bending," J. Strain Anal., vol. 35, pp. 35-46 (2000).   DOI
7 K. Yahiaoui, D. G. Moffat, and D. N. Moreton, "Piping Elbows with Cracks, Part 2: Global Finite Element and Experimental Plastic Loads under Opening Bending," J. Strain Anal., vol. 35, pp. 47-57 (2000).   DOI   ScienceOn
8 V. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer, New York (1995).
9 H. D. Hibbitt, B. I. Karlsson, and E. P. Sorensen, "ABAQUS/Standard User's Manual," Hibbitt, Karlsson & Sorensen, Inc., Pawtucket, RI (2001).
10 J. Chattopadhyay, "The Effect of Internal Pressure on In- Plane Collapse Moment of Elbows," Nucl. Eng. Des., vol. 202, pp. 133-144 (2002).
11 S. L. Chiu, "Fuzzy Model Identification Based on Cluster Estimation," J. Intell. Fuzzy Systems, vol. 2, pp. 267-278 (1994).   DOI   ScienceOn
12 J. W. Hines, B. Rasmussen, "Online Sensor Calibration Monitoring Uncertainty Estimation," Nuclear Technology, vol. 151, pp. 281-288 (2005).
13 J. W. Hines and R. Seibert, "Technical Review of On-Line Monitoring Techniques for Performance Assessment," Volume 1: State-of-the-Art, NUREG/CR-6895, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C (2006).
14 B. Chexal, J. Horowitz, B. Dooley, P. Millett, C. Wood, and R. Jones, "Flow-Accelerated Corrosion in Power Plant," EPRI/TR-106611-R2 (1998).
15 V. C. Martzen and L. Yu, "Elbow Stress Indices Using Finite Element Analysis," Nucl. Eng. & Des., vol. 181, pp. 257-265 (1998).   DOI
16 M. A. Shalaby and M. Y. A. Younan, "Limit Loads for Pipe Elbows Subjected to In-Plane Opening Moments and Internal Pressure," J. Press. Ves. Tech., vol. 121, pp. 17-23 (1999).   DOI   ScienceOn