• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Theory

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The Effect of Consumers' Loss Aversion on Pioneering Advantage

  • Won, Eu-Gene J.S.
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2011
  • The present study provides a theoretical investigation on pioneering advantage based on reference dependence and loss aversion effect under prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). Behavioral explanations for pioneering advantage are provided from two different perspectives: one based on the prototypicality and the other on the utility uncertainty of the option. A pioneer brand creates the product category and makes a strong impression in customers' mind, and thus becomes the most representative or prototypical option of the category. In addition, the pioneer brand becomes the first option to be experienced by the majority of consumers in the product category, thus has the lowest level of utility uncertainty compared with the late movers. This study integrates the previous accounts for pioneering advantage by showing that consumers have higher preferences for the most prototypical and the least uncertain option based on loss aversion and reference dependence effect. This study suggests that firms should carefully analyze the consumers' loss aversion and perceived uncertainty and prototypicality of their products in order to develop effective market entry strategies.

A Study on the Investment Decision of Offshore Aquaculture under Risk (위험 하에서의 외해가두리양식업 투자의사결정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Jong-Yeol;Lee, Jung-Uie
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.109-123
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    • 2008
  • This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

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Uncertainty, Depression, and Ways of Coping in Women with Endometriosis (자궁내막증 여성의 불확실성, 우울 및 대처방식)

  • Suh, Youngseong;Ahn, Sukhee
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.743-752
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: The purposes of this study were to identify the level of total symptom distress, uncertainty, depression and ways of coping in women with endometriosis based on Mishel's model of Uncertainty in Chronic illness, and to exam the relationships among symptom distress, depression and ways of coping and the mediating effect of ways of coping between uncertainty and depression. Method: The research was used for correlational research design and data were collected with 123 women with endometriosis who live in a local area by convenience sampling. Results: The finding showed that the levels of symptom distress and uncertainty were moderate and the depression was above the middle level. There were positive relationships among symptom distress, uncertainty and depression but a negative relationship between problem focused coping and depression. The significant predictors for depression were symptom distress, uncertainty, and problem focused coping with 40% of explained variance. Problem focused coping showed mediating effect between uncertainty and depression. Conclusion: Therefore, nursing intervention for the strategy of increasing problem focused coping as well as lowering uncertainty and depression is recommended. Further study is needed to conduct a repetitive study with randomized nationwide population and to evaluate the theory with different outcomes for adaptation versus maladaptation.

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The Influence of Uncertainty and Social Support on General Well-being among Hemodialysis Patients (혈액투석 환자가 지각하는 불확실성과 사회적 지지가 안녕감에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Youn-Jin;Choi, Hee-Jung
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore factors affecting uncertainty and general well-being based on Uncertainty in Illness Theory. Methods: Data were collected from 125 outpatients who had received hemodialysis. The path model among four concepts, such as period of hemodialysis, social support, uncertainty, and general well-being, was tested. Tangible support, positive social interaction, affectionate, and emotional/informational support were measured as social support. Adaptation in the model was operationalized as general well-being which consisted of anxiety, depression, positive well-being, self-control, and general health. Results: All paths were statistically significant at the level of ${\alpha}$=.05. The significant paths were the path from period of hemodialysis to uncertainty (t=-2.86), social support to uncertainty (t=-2.01), uncertainty to general wellbeing (t=-2.85), and social support to general well-being (t=3.55). Conclusion: Patients who perceived low uncertainty and high social support were likely to feel well-being. Therefore, nurses should give patients appropriate information according to their needs and have meaningful interaction with patients to reduce their uncertainty and render social support.

Influence of Illness Uncertainty on Health Behavior in Individuals with Coronary Artery Disease: A Path Analysis

  • Jeong, Hyesun;Lee, Yesul;Park, Jin Sup;Lee, Yoonju
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.162-177
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the influence of uncertainty-related factors on the health behavior of individuals with coronary artery disease (CAD) based on Mishel's uncertainty in illness theory (UIT). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study and path analysis to investigate uncertainty and factors related to health behavior. The study participants were 228 CAD patients who visited the outpatient cardiology department between September 2020 and June 2021. We used SPSS 25.0 and AMOS 25.0 software to analyze the data. Results: The final model demonstrated a good fit with the data. Eleven of the twelve paths were significant. Uncertainty positively affected danger and negatively affected self-efficacy and opportunity. Danger had a positive effect on perceived risk. Opportunity positively affected social support, self-efficacy, perceived benefit and intention, whereas it negatively affected perceived risk. Social support, self-efficacy, perceived benefit and intention had a positive effect on health behavior. We found that perceived benefit and intention had the most significant direct effects, whereas self-efficacy indirectly affected the relationship between uncertainty and health behavior. Conclusion: The path model is suitable for predicting the health behavior of CAD patients who experience uncertainty. When patients experience uncertainty, interventions to increase their self-efficacy are required first. Additionally, we need to develop programs that quickly shift to appraisal uncertainty as an opportunity, increase perceived benefits of health behavior, and improve intentions.

A Study for Application of Active Magnetic Bearing using Quantitative Feedback Theory (Quantitative Feedback Theory를 이용한 능동 자기베어링의 적용 연구)

  • Lee, Gwan-Yeol;Lee, Hyeong-Bok;Kim, Yeong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.107-115
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    • 2001
  • Most of rotating machineries supported by contact bearing accompany lowering efficiency, vibration and wear. Moreover, because of vibration, which is occurred in rotating shaft, they have the limits of driving speed and precision. The rotor system has parametric variations or external disturbances such as mass unbalance variations in long operation. Therefore, it is necessary to research about magnetic bearing, which is able to support the shaft without mechanical contact and to control rotor vibration without being affected by external disturbances or parametric changes. Magnetic bearing system in the paper is composed of position sensor, digital controller, actuating amplifier and electromagnet. This paper applied the robust control method using quantitative feedback theory (QFT) to control the magnetic bearing. It also proposed design skill of optimal controller, in case the system has structured uncertainty, unstructured uncertainty and disturbance. Reduction of vibration is verified at critical rotating speed even external disturbance exists. Unbalance response, a serious problem in rotating machinery, is improved by magnetic bearing using QFT algorithm.

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Uncertainty Study: Information Seeking Behaviors of Doctoral Students in Business Management (정보행태 불확신성에 관한 연구 - 경영학분야 박사과정 연구자들을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Yang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.65-89
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    • 2012
  • Using grounded theory, this study investigated users' information seeking behaviors associated with their perceptions of uncertainty. Based on a theoretical sampling, 17 doctoral students in the field of business management were recruited. Data was collected through the methods of questionnaire, interviewing, and think-aloud descriptions. The results identified user perceptions of uncertainty in the following stages: identification of information needs, selection of information systems, selection of search terms, actual use of systems, and evaluation of search results. In addition, positive aspects of uncertainties were presented. Major implications relate to information system and service improvements.

Robust Servo Design and Application for Optical Disk Drive Using Robust Control Theory : H vs. QFT (광 디스크 드라이브 서보 설계를 위한 강건 제어 이론의 적용 및 평가 : H vs. QFT)

  • Lee, Kwang-Hyun;Yang, Hyunseok;Park, No-Cheol;Park, Young-Pil;Choi, Jin-Young
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.10 s.103
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    • pp.1148-1159
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, the various uncertainties generated in an optical disk drive (ODD) and the robust servo designs considering the uncertainties are studied. First, the brief introduction an ODD and the servo error tolerance of it are discussed. Then, the classifications of uncertainty and the concept of relative stability are introduced. Considering the uncertainty of an ODD, two robust control approaches are applied: (i) mixed sensitivity approach in H$\infty$ control theory for unstructured uncertainty, (ii) QFT for structured uncertainty Finally, the designed controllers are realized by DSP, and these controllers are applied to a commercial DVD-ROM drive. From these experiments, we prove that the designed robust controllers have more good disturbance rejection performance and robustness when it is compared to the conventional lead-lag controller.

Reliability Design of the Natural frequency of a System based on the Samples of Uncertain Parameters (불확실한 인자 표본을 이용한 시스템 고유진동수의 신뢰성 설계)

  • Choi, Chan Kyu;Yoo, Hong Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.467-471
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    • 2014
  • The natural frequencies of a mechanical system are determined by the system parameters such as masses and stiffness of the system. Since material irregularities and manufacturing tolerances always exist in most of practical engineering situations, the system parameters always have uncertainties. As the uncertainties of the parameters increase, the uncertainties of the system natural frequencies also increases. Then, the reliability of the system deteriorates. So, the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies should be analyzed accurately and considered in the design of the system. In order to analyze the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies employing most of existing uncertainty analysis methods, the probability distributions of the uncertain system parameters should be identified. In most practical situations, however, identification of the probability distributions is almost impossible because of limited time and cost. For that case, the reliability should be estimated based on finite samples of the system parameters. In this paper, sample based reliability estimation method employing extreme value theory was proposed. Using the proposed estimation method, sample based reliability design of the system natural frequencies was conducted.

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Improvement and application of DeCART/MUSAD for uncertainty analysis of HTGR neutronic parameters

  • Han, Tae Young;Lee, Hyun Chul;Cho, Jin Young;Jo, Chang Keun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.461-468
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    • 2020
  • The improvements of the DeCART/MUSAD code system for uncertainty analysis of HTGR neutronic parameters are presented in this paper. The function for quantifying an uncertainty of critical-spectrumweighted few group cross section was implemented using the generalized adjoint B1 equation solver. Though the changes between the infinite and critical spectra cause a considerable difference in the contribution by the graphite scattering cross section, it does not significantly affect the total uncertainty. To reduce the number of iterations of the generalized adjoint transport equation solver, the generalized adjoint B1 solution was used as the initial value for it and the number of iterations decreased to 50%. To reflect the implicit uncertainty, the correction factor was derived with the resonance integral. Moreover, an additional correction factor for the double heterogeneity was derived with the effective cross section of the DH region and it reduces the difference from the complete uncertainty. The code system was examined with the MHTGR-350 Ex.II-2 3D core benchmark. The keff uncertainty for Ex.II-2a with only the fresh fuel block was similar to that of the block and the uncertainty for Ex.II-2b with the fresh fuel and the burnt fuel blocks was smaller than that of the fresh fuel block.