• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.109-117
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• 2011

It was calculated using empirical formulas for the weight of Tetrapod, which was a representative armor unit in the rubble mound breakwater in Korea. As the formulas were evaluated from a curve-fitting with the result of hydraulic test, the uncertainty of experimental error was included. Therefore, the neural network and M5' model tree were used to minimize the uncertainty and predicted the stability number of armor block. The index of agreement between the predicted and measured stability number was calculated to assess the degree of uncertainty for each model. While the neural network with the highest index of agreement have an excellent prediction capability, a significant disadvantage exists that general designers can not easily handle the method. However, although M5' model tree has a lower prediction capability than the neural network, the model tree is easily used by the designers because it has a good prediction capability compared with the existing empirical formula and can be used to propose the formulas like an empirical formula.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.26-32
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• 2010

This paper proposes a new effective installed reserve rate in order to evaluate reliability of power system considering renewable generators, which include uncertainty of resource supply. It is called EIRR(effective installed reserve rate) in this paper. It is developed with considering capacity credit based on ELCC by using LOLE reliability criterion. While the conventional installed reserve rate index yields over-evaluation reliability of renewable generators, the proposed EIRR describes actual effective installed reserve rate. However, it is not the probabilistic reliability index as like as LOLE or EENS but another deterministic effective reliability index. The proposed EIRR is able to evaluate the realistic contribution to the reliability level for power system considering wind turbine generators and solar cell generators with high uncertainty in resource supply. The case study in model system as like as Jeju power system size presents a possibility that the proposed EIRR can be used practically as a new deterministic reliability index for generation expansion planning or operational planning in future.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.77-82
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• 2008

This paper presents a Reliability-Based Topology Optimization(RBTO) using the Evolutionary Structural Optimization(ESO). An actual design involves some uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation. The Deterministic Topology Optimization(DTO) is obtained without considering the uncertainties related to the uncertainty parameters. However, the RBTO can consider the uncertainty variables because it has the probabilistic constraints. In order to determine whether the probabilistic constraints are satisfied or not, simulation techniques and approximation methods are developed. In this paper, the reliability index approach(RIA) is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraints. In order to apply the ESO method to the RBTO, sensitivity number is defined as the change in the reliability index due to the removal of the ith element. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DTO with the RBTO.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.75.3-75
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• 2001

This paper addresses the design of State-feedback Robust Guaranteed-Cost Controllers with controller gain variations. Since the unstructured uncertainty is the most dominant uncertainty in the modeling of the plant, the plant is assumed to have the unstructured uncertainty. It is necessary to take the controller parameter perturbation into consideration when we design the robust controller. Otherwise, the resulting controller may show the fragility property. That is to say, the extremely small controller parameter variation may result in the instability of the overall closed-loop system. Therefore, the design purpose is that the maximum performance index is guaranteed in the presence of the unstructured plant uncertainty and controller parameter variations ...

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.799-805
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• 2001

In this paper, we propose eigenstructure assigned sliding mode control for mismatched uncertain system. Variable structure control has the sliding mode in which the system is robust against the uncertainty and the sliding motion depends upon the sliding surface. Therefore, the surface design is one of the important problems. Also in mismatched cases, the uncertainty may affect on the sliding motion and may cause unexpected instability of the system. Thus, that should be considered, too. For robust sliding mode against the mismatched uncertainty, we suggest the design method of the sliding surface using the eigenstructure assignment, define an index as the measure of the robustness which shows the size of affordable unstructured uncertainty, and present the computation method. And also we propose the controller which can ensure the sliding mode and prove the robust stability of the proposed controller by using Lyapunov method. Finally we show the appropriateness of the proposed scheme for the mismatched uncertainty via the example.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.70-99
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• 2019

Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.8
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• pp.1626-1637
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• 2020

This work covers an important point of the benchmark released by the expert group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling of Light Water Reactors. This ambitious benchmark aims to determine the uncertainty in light water reactors systems and processes in all stages of calculation, with emphasis on multi-physics (coupled) and multi-scale simulations. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit methodology is used to propagate the thermal-hydraulic uncertainty of macroscopic parameters through TRACE5.0p3/PARCSv3.0 coupled code. The main innovative points achieved in this work are i) a new thermal-hydraulic model is developed with a highly-accurate 3D core discretization plus an iterative process is presented to adjust the 3D bypass flow, ii) a control rod insertion occurrence -which data is obtained from a real PWR test- is used as a transient simulation, iii) two approaches are used for the propagation process: maximum response where the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is performed for the maximum absolute response and index dependent where the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is performed at each time step, and iv) RESTING MATLAB code is developed to automate the model generation process and, then, propagate the thermal-hydraulic uncertainty. The input uncertainty information is found in related literature or, if not found, defined based on expert judgment. This paper, first, presents the Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit methodology to propagate the uncertainty in thermal-hydraulic macroscopic parameters and, then, shows the results when the methodology is applied to a PWR reactor.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.224-229
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• 2010

This paper presents a reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) using bi-directional evolutionary structural optimization (BESO). An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation. Deterministic topology optimization (DTO) is obtained without considering of uncertainties related to the uncertainty parameters. However, the RBTO can consider the uncertainty variables because it has the probabilistic constraints. In this paper, the reliability index approach (RIA) is adopted to evaluate the probabilistic constraint. RBTO based on BESO starting from various design domains produces a similar optimal topology each other. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DTO with the RBTO.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.125-139
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• 1996

This study was performed to provide the design method for soil structure which guarantees proper safety with uncertainty of soil parameters. For this purpose, the effect of uncertainty of soil parameters for slope stability was analyzed by Bishop's simplified method and Monte Carlo simulation(MC). And reliability analysis program, RESFEM, was developed by combining elastic theory, MC, FEM, SFEM, and reliability, which can consider uncertainty of soil parameters. For factor of safety(FS) 1.0 and 1.2 by Bishop's simplified method, the probability of failure(Pf) was analyzed with varying coefficient of variation(c.o.v.) of soil parameters. The Pf increased as c.o.v. of soil parameters increased. This implies that FS is not the absolute index of slope safety, and even if FS is same, it has different Pf according to c.o.v. of soil parameters. The RESFEM was able to express the Pf at each element in slope quantitatively according to uncertainty of soil parameters. The variation of Pf with uncertainty of soil parameters was analyzed by RESFEM, and it was shown that the Pf increased as the c.o.v. of soil parameters increased.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.2945-2965
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• 2023

The laser inertial measurement unit is a precision device widely used in rocket navigation system and other equipment, and its quality is directly related to navigation accuracy. In the quality evaluation of laser inertial measurement unit, there is inevitably uncertainty in the index input information. First, the input numerical information is in interval form. Second, the index input grade and the quality evaluation result grade are given according to different national standards. So, it is a key step to transform the interval information input by the index into the data form consistent with the evaluation result grade. In the case of uncertain input, this paper puts forward a method based on probability distribution to solve the problem of asymmetry between the reference grade given by the index and the evaluation result grade when evaluating the quality of laser inertial measurement unit. By mapping the numerical relationship between the designated reference level and the evaluation reference level of the index information under different distributions, the index evidence symmetrical with the evaluation reference level is given. After the uncertain input information is transformed into evidence of interval degree distribution by this method, the information fusion of interval degree distribution evidence is carried out by interval evidential reasoning algorithm, and the evaluation result is obtained by projection covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy optimization. Taking a five-meter redundant laser inertial measurement unit as an example, the applicability and effectiveness of this method are verified.