• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Index

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Economic Uncertainty and Business Innovation: Focused on Research and Development (경제적 불확실성과 경영혁신: 연구개발을 중심으로)

  • Sun-Pil Hwang;Sung-Yong Ryu
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of economic uncertainty on business innovation. To this end, Ahir et al. (2018) World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is selected as a proxy for economic uncertainty, while total R&D investment (RD), capitalized R&D investment (RD_A), expensed R&D investment (RD_E), and the proportion of capitalized R&D investment to total R&D investment (RD_R) are selected as variables representing business innovation. The research findings showed that economic uncertainty (WUI) had a statistically significant positive (+) relationship with total research and development investment (RD), asset-based research and development investment (RD_A), and the proportion of asset-based research and development investment (RD_R). This relationship remained the same even after controlling for managerial opportunistic accounting behavior (DACC; discretionary accruals). These findings suggest that companies focus on research and development investment as an opportunity for management innovation even in the face of economic uncertainty. The results of this study are significant in demonstrating the validity and effectiveness of government support for industrial promotion under economic uncertainty.

Uncertainty, Self-care Agency and Physiological Index in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients who Underwent Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (초발 급성 심근경색증 환자의 불확실성과 자가간호 역량 및 생리적 지표)

  • Cho, Sook-Hee;Jeon, Gyeong-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2015
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship among uncertainty, self-care agency and physiological index in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods : A total of 196 patients who were admitted C National University Hospital from Oct 2014 to Jun 2015 participated in the study. Data were collected with a questionnaire, and the blood pressure, HgA1C, and lipid profile levels of the patients were acquired. Results : The mean age was 69.2 (${\pm}13.0$) years, and 74 % of the patients were men. The mean score for uncertainty in illness was 48.7 (${\pm}8.8$). The mean score for self-care agency was 73.3 (${\pm}13.4$). Self-care agency showed a negative correlation with uncertainty (r=-.579, p<.001), age (r=-.732, p<.001), systolic blood pressure (r=-.265, p=.001) and HgA1C (r=-.293, p<.001). Conclusions : The results of this study can be used to develop a nursing program that prevents AMI and to improve the clinical prognosis of AMI patients.

Analysis of the Manufacturing Firms' R&D Strategy According to Global Political and Economic Uncertainty (글로벌 정치 경제적 불확실성에 따른 제조 기업의 R&D 전략 분석)

  • Keontaek Oh;EuiBeom Jeong
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the effects of manufacturing firms' R&D investment on sales according to global political economic uncertainty. The variables in this research include the firm's R&D investment, sales, which serves as an indicator of the firm's performance, and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index, which reflects situations of global political economic uncertainty. Panel data analysis is conducted by using a total of 96 quarters of data spanning 24 years from 2000 to 2023 based on manufacturing firms in the Wharton Research Data Services' Compustat Database. We study the impact of firm's R&D investment on sales by considering the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which was relatively underestimated in previous research, as moderating variable, and present a new direction for research by analyzing the time lag effect. We suggest effective R&D investment strategy for firms.

The relationship between of Uncertainty, Depression, Physiologic Index and Basic Psychological Need of Hemodialysis Patients (혈액투석환자의 질병 불확실성, 우울, 생리지표와 기본심리욕구와의 관계)

  • Cho, Young-Mun;Yun, Kyung-Soon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.281-291
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    • 2017
  • This purpose of study was to identify variables predicting basic psychological need in hemodialysis patients. The participants were 134 patients from two major general hospitals and two dialysis center located in J city. Data were collected using self-report questionnaires and physiological index. Data analysis was done by using SPSS WIN 18.0 program for one-way ANOVA, independent t-test, Pearson correlation coefficients, and multiple regression. This study showed a negative correlation between basic psychological need and uncertainty(r=--.464, p<.001), depression(r=-.422, p<.001). In addition, relationships and physiological index were Positively correlated. The uncertainty(${\beta}=-.345$), depression(${\beta}=-.279$), physiological index(${\beta}=-.117$) have a 29% explanatory power for the basic psychological need in hemodialysis patients. Physiological index, uncertainty and depression in turn influenced the basic psychological needs of hemodialysis patients. It is necessary to develop nursing strategies and programs to reduce disease uncertainty and depression in order to increase self-deterministic health behavior through autonomy, competence and relationship satisfaction.

Evaluating the contribution of calculation components to the uncertainty of standardized precipitation index using a linear mixed model (선형혼합모형을 활용한 표준강수지수 계산 인자들의 불확실성에 대한 기여도 평가)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Lee, Baesung;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2023
  • Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

Decision Method on Target Safety Level in Suspension Bridges by Minimization of Life Cycle Cost (생애주기비용의 최소화에 의한 현수교의 목표안전수준 결정방법)

  • Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2009
  • Life Cycle Cost(LCC) is adopted to decide the target of safety level in designing suspension bridges. The LCC are evaluated considering two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. The nine alternative designs of suspension bridge are simulated to decide the safety level which can minimize the LCC. The LCC is calculated through the probability of failure and safety index including the uncertainty. This method results in the useful tool deciding the optimum safety level with minimal LCC as the main design factor.

A Study on Reliability Characteristic Curve of Transmission & Substation System considering Device Fault's Uncertainty (설비고장의 불확실성을 고려한 송변전계통의 공급신뢰도 특성곡선에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Kern-Joong
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.9
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    • pp.1500-1506
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we proposed new reliability characteristic curve, which-can clearly show reliability property of transmission and substation system considering uncertainty such as frequency and duration of device fault. It express the relationship of duration of load curtailments, demand not supplied, and energy not served as “ y = $ax^{-1}$ " curve. and we proposed the method, which can objectively assess reliability of transmission and substation system using proposed characteristic curve as new reliability index. In this method, we used energy index of reliability(EIR) as a criterion of assessment. Finally, we performed a variety of case study for KEPCO system in order to verify usefulness of proposed method.

Analyze the parameter uncertainty of SURR model using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with informal likelihood functions

  • Duyen, Nguyen Thi;Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.127-127
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    • 2021
  • In order to estimate parameter uncertainty of hydrological models, the consideration of the likelihood functions which provide reliable parameters of model is necessary. In this study, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with informal likelihood functions is used to analyze the uncertainty of parameters of the SURR model for estimating the hourly streamflow of Gunnam station of Imjin basin, Korea. Three events were used to calibrate and one event was used to validate the posterior distributions of parameters. Moreover, the performance of four informal likelihood functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Normalized absolute error, Index of agreement, and Chiew-McMahon efficiency) on uncertainty of parameter is assessed. The indicators used to assess the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation were P-factor (percentage of observed streamflow included in the uncertainty interval) and R-factor (the average width of the uncertainty interval). The results showed that the sensitivities of parameters strongly depend on the likelihood functions and vary for different likelihood functions. The uncertainty bounds illustrated the slight differences from various likelihood functions. This study confirms the importance of the likelihood function selection in the application of Bayesian MCMC to the uncertainty assessment of the SURR model.

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The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Pricing in the Stock Return (경제적 불확실성이 주식수익률 결정에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, In-Su
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the role of economic uncertainty in stock price determination in the domestic stock market. To this end, we analyzed the relationship between economic uncertainty indices at home and abroad (USA, China) and stock returns for non-financial companies in Korea from January 2000 to 2017. For the analysis model, the 3-factor model of Fama and French (1992) and the 5-factor model including momentum and liquidity were used. As a result of the analysis, a portfolio with a high beta of economic uncertainty showed higher stock returns than a portfolio with a low beta. This was the same as the US analysis result. Also, the analysis results using the US uncertainty index were more significant than the regression analysis results using the Korean economic uncertainty index.

A Numerical Study on the Effects on Consolidation Settlement Behavior due to Uncertainty of Compression Index (압축지수의 불확실성이 압밀침하 거동에 미치는 영향에 대한 수치적 평가)

  • Byun, Yoseph;Kim, Kwangyoon;Lee, Changki;Chun, Byungsik
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2012
  • In this research, the value of consolidation index was investigated. The range of the investigated standard deviation was analyzed and the deviation based settlement was calculated. Also, the compression index, which is the effect of the uncertainty in the ground was analyzed using the flimsy ground construction method. The settlement behavior in each embankment compaction stage was analyzed by applying the precompression load method, drainage expediting method, and displacement method through numerical analysis. In addition to the above, the settlement behavior was studied by analyzing the Piled Raft method which is stable for long term settlement. As a result, the final settlement amount based on average analysis results was that the settlement based on each of the average interpretation value, mean value of the maximum and minimum value and average compression index was different. The result of the comparison shows the difference in variation coefficient by the difference in time. Amongst them, the Piled Raft method shows the most consistent variation coefficient regardless of time and it also was least affected by the compression index of uncertainty.