Journal of Industrial Convergence (산업융합연구)

DAEHAN Society of Industrial Management (대한산업경영학회)
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The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Pricing in the Stock Return

경제적 불확실성이 주식수익률 결정에 미치는 영향

  • Kim, In-Su (Dept. of Finance and Accounting, Kookmin University)
  • 김인수 (국민대학교 재무금융.회계학부)
  • Received : 2022.01.12
  • Accepted : 2022.02.20
  • Published : 2022.02.28
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Abstract

This study examines the role of economic uncertainty in stock price determination in the domestic stock market. To this end, we analyzed the relationship between economic uncertainty indices at home and abroad (USA, China) and stock returns for non-financial companies in Korea from January 2000 to 2017. For the analysis model, the 3-factor model of Fama and French (1992) and the 5-factor model including momentum and liquidity were used. As a result of the analysis, a portfolio with a high beta of economic uncertainty showed higher stock returns than a portfolio with a low beta. This was the same as the US analysis result. Also, the analysis results using the US uncertainty index were more significant than the regression analysis results using the Korean economic uncertainty index.

본 연구에서는 국내 주식시장에서 경제적 불확실성이 주식가격 결정에 어떠한 역할을 하는지 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 2000년 1월부터 2017년까지 우리나라의 비금융기업을 대상으로 국내외(미국, 중국)의 경제적 불확실성 지표와 주식수익률의 관련성을 분석하였다. 분석모형은 Fama and French(1992)의 3요인 모형과 모멘텀, 유동성을 포함한 5요인모형을 이용하였다. 분석결과 경제적 불확실성의 베타가 낮은 포트폴리오보다 높은 포트폴리오의 주식수익률이 높게 나타났다. 이는 미국의 분석 결과와도 동일하였다. 또한 한국의 경제적 불확실성 지수를 통한 분석 회귀분석 결과보다 미국의 불확실성 지수를 이용한 분석 결과가 더욱 유의하게 나타났다.

Keywords

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