• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Index

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The Performance of Large-diameter Bored Piles and Large-section Barrettes in Decomposed Geomaterials in Hong Kong

  • Ng Charles W.W.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.10a
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    • pp.334-408
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    • 2006
  • In Hong Kong, large-diameter (${\ge}600mm$) bored piles and large-section excavated rectangular barrettes are commonly used to support tall buildings to resist both vertical and horizontal loads. These piles and barrettes penetrate through and may found in saprolitic soils and decomposed rocks. Generally, the design of these large bored piles and barrettes involves considerable amount of uncertainty and design parameters must usually be verified by field tests. In this paper, over 50 full-scale load tests on large-diameter bored piles and over 15 large-section of rectangular barrettes in Hong Kong are reviewed and interpreted critically, in particular the degree of mobilisation of side shear resistance using a mobilization rating (MR) factor and a displacement index (DI) for floating bored piles and barrettes and rock-socketed piles, respectively. The author was heavily involved with many of these load tests. The diameter of the bored piles tested ranges from 0.6m to 1.8m and the depth varies from 12m to 75m. Sizes of barrettes critically reviewed include $2.2m{\times}0.6m,\;2.2m{\times}0.8m,\;2.8m{\times}0.8m\;and\;2.8m{\times}1.0m$ (on plan) and the depth varies from 36m and 63m. Based on these field tests, a new failure load criterion for large-diameter bored piles and barrettes is developed and proposed. The side shear resistance of the bored piles and barrettes is quantitatively analyzed with respect to local displacements, standard penetration tests, unconfined compressive strength (UCS) for rock sockets and using the effective stress principle. In addition, the effects of construction including post-grouting, construction time, side scraping and excavation tools on side shear resistance are investigated and reported.

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The Empirical Study of Relationship between Product Market Competition Structure and Overvaluation

  • CHA, Sang-Kwon;PARK, Mi-Hee
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This paper investigated the relationship between market competition and firm valuation error. Furthermore, Additional analyses were made according to the quality of financial reports and the listed market. Through the process we confirm to the impact of competition on the capital market. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of competition on valuation errors. The preceding studies did not provide a consistent results of the effects of competing functions on the capital market. One view is that the competition could mitigate the information asymmetry, and the other is that monopolistic lessens the manager's involvement in financial reporting. This study is intended to expand the prior study by analyzing the impact of competition on the capital market and on the valuation of investors. Research design, data, and methodology: The analysis was conducted on 12,031 samples over 11 years from 2008 to 2018 using data from market in Korea. Here the valuation error was measured by the research methodology of Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson and Viswanathan (2005), and competition measured by Herfindahl-Hirschman Index multiplied by (-1), and Concentration Ratio by (-1). Results: We confirm that the positive relationship between competition and the valuation error. In addition, we also found that the positive relation between competition and valuation error was in cases of low discretionary accruals and the KOSDAQ market. This means that the net function of competition does not mitigate valuation errors. Conclusions. This study has the following contributions when compared to prior research. First, the relevance between the level of competition and the valuation of the entity was confirmed. The study by Haw, Hu and Lee (2015) suggested that monopolistic industry of analysts' forecast is more accurate due to lower the variability in earnings. This study magnified it to confirm that monopolistic lessen information uncertainty in valuation. Second, the study on valuation errors was expanded. While the study on the effect of valuation errors on the capital market is generally relatively active, it is different that competition degree has analyzed the effect on valuation errors amid the lack of research on the effect on valuation errors.

Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast and Predictive Sunshine and Radiation (일기 예보와 예측 일사 및 일조를 이용한 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Shin, Dong-Ha;Park, Jun-Ho;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.643-650
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    • 2017
  • Photovoltaic generation which has unlimited energy sources are very intermittent because they depend on the weather. Therefore, it is necessary to get accurate generation prediction with reducing the uncertainty of photovoltaic generation and improvement of the economics. The Meteorological Agency predicts weather factors for three days, but doesn't predict the sunshine and solar radiation that are most correlated with the prediction of photovoltaic generation. In this study, we predict sunshine and solar radiation using weather, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness which is forecasted for three days at Meteorological Agency. The photovoltaic generation forecasting model is proposed by using predicted solar radiation and sunshine. As a result, the proposed model showed better results in the error rate indexes such as MAE, RMSE, and MAPE than the model that predicts photovoltaic generation without radiation and sunshine. In addition, DNN showed a lower error rate index than using SVM, which is a type of machine learning.

Analysis of drought characteristics depending on RCP scenarios at Korea (RCP 시나리오별 한반도 가뭄특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho;Kim, Sangdan;Joo, Jingul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.293-303
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    • 2016
  • This study implemented a comparison of SPI characteristics in terms of quantitative and spatial analysis depending on four RCP scenarios. For this purpose, we compared quantitative characteristics of drought using standard precipitation index resulted from daily precipitation data reflecting future green gas concentration scenarios, and spatial distribution field of seasonal drought occurrence frequency and its duration, was analyzed to compare drought trends depending on the RCP scenarios. As a result, we found that SPI time series was quite different from each other and correlation coefficients were lower than 0.08. Depending on the RCP scenarios, spatial distribution results showed different trends in drought severity, frequency, and duration. The biggest reason of the difference is daily precipitation data based on the different greenhouse gas concentrations, but we could not find the effect of the concentration extent on drought occurrence projection. In addition, according to the results from this study, drought analysis results using single RCP scenario may have considerable uncertainty.

Suggestion of Flexural Strengthening Ratio of NSM Strengthened Concrete Railroad Bridge based on Probability and Reliability (확률.신뢰도에 기초한 표면매립보강(NSM) 콘크리트 철도교의 휨보강비 산정)

  • Oh, Hong-Seob;Sim, Jong-Sung;Ju, Min-Kwan;Lee, Ki-Hong;Park, Ji-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.121-124
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate. The railroad bridge is usually under vibration and impact in service state. Therefore, it is important that the effective strengthening performance must be exhibited under the service loading is acted. To widely apply the NSM method for the concrete railroad bridge in field, it needs that reasonable strengthening parameter such as strengthening ratio has to be investigated and evaluated when the strengthening design is conducted. In this study, to suggest more reasonable strengthening ratio, material and geometrical uncertainty was considered and applied by Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) technique. Lastly, the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate was evaluated by using the limit state function with the target reliability index.

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Study on Fashion Illustration as Viewed from the Allegorical - Based on the theory of Craig Owens - (알레고리 관점의 패션 일러스트레이션에 관한 연구 - 크렉 오웬스의 이론을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Mi-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2012
  • The contents of this study are as follows. First, an academic understanding has been achieved by exploring the theoretical concept "allegory", and a new theoretical approached methodology has been sought. Second, an analysis-index of fashion illustration cases has been suggested based on the allegory theory of Craig Owens. Third, in order to draw the characteristics of fashion illustration as viewed from the allegorical viewpoint and find out its feasibility, the case studies has been referred and the internal significance, external significance that combines different characteristics has been extracted. In regards to this study method, literature studies and case studies has been done in parallel with each other. This study was done in the following sequence: the establishment of the study system, the drawing of the allegory-associated concepts and the discovering the characteristics of aesthetic expressions. The results of this study on the expression characteristics of fashion illustration as viewed from the allegorical viewpoint of Craig Owens are as follows. First, the borrowing of image, which is a characteristic of allegory, contains the meaning of uncertainty in the fashion illustration as it expresses the image-synthesis and forms a completely different meaning as the fixed meaning is dissolved and it is utilized as a photo-montage technique. Second, the inference of pictogram is the mixture of linguistic medium and visual medium. Fashion illustration utilizes the characters and transmits the fashion information visually and immanently. It has the characteristic of making the information into pictograms and the internal significances of mutual-text with communication function. Third, the uniqueness of location in the fashion illustration has the special nature of utilized mediums as it is used for advertising or publicizing. The fashion illustration from the viewpoint of allegory has the impermanency of existing only for a limited time and reflects the coincidence that gives the meaning of utilized location according to the season trend. Fourth, the cross-breeding is expressed as the mixture of various materials in the fashion illustration. The expressions made by the mixture of media, such as the use of computer graphic programs mixed together with various materials showed the trend of diversity and genre dissolution.

Performance Analysis of GNSS Ephemeris Fault Detection Algorithm Based on Carrier-Phase Measurement (반송파 측정값 기반 GNSS 궤도력 고장 검출 알고리즘 성능 분석)

  • Ahn, Jongsun;Jun, Hyang-Sig;Nam, Gi-Wook;Yeom, Chan-Hong;Lee, Young Jae;Sung, Sangkyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.453-460
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    • 2014
  • We analyze fault detection algorithm of ephemeris included in navigation message, which is one of the GNSS risk factors. This algorithm uses carrier-phase measurement and baseline vector of two reference stations and is alternative method for uncertainty condition of previous ephemeris. Even though same ephemeris fault is occurred, the geometry condition, between baseline vector of reference stations and satellites, effects on performance of algorithm. Also, we introduce the suitable geometry of reference stations, threshold and performance index (MDE : Minimum Detectable Error) in jeju international airport.

Projected Spatial-Temporal changes in carbon reductions of Soil and Vegetation in South Korea under Climate Change, 2000-2100 (기후변화에 따른 식생과 토양에 의한 탄소변화량 공간적 분석)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Park, Chan;Oh, Young-Chool
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2010
  • Climate change is known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the terrestrail carbon balance. This paper reports the effects of climate change on spatial-temporal changes in carbon reductions in South Korea's during 2000-2100. Future carbon (C) stock distributions are simulated for the same period using various spatial data sets including land cover, net primary production(NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) obtained from MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and climate data from Data Assimilation Office(DAO) and Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). This study attempts to predict future NPP using multiple linear regression and to model dependence of soil respiration on soil temperature. Plants store large amounts of carbon during the growing periods. During 2030-2100, Carbon accumulation in vegetation was increased to $566{\sim}610gC/m^2$/year owing to climate change. On the other hand, soil respiration is a key ecosystem process that releases carbon from the soil in the form of carbon dioxide. The estimated soil respiration spatially ranged from $49gC/m^2$/year to $231gC/m^2$/year in the year of 2010, and correlating well with the reference value. This results include Spatial-Temporal C reduction variation caused by climate change. Therefore this results is more comprehensive than previous results. The uncertainty in this study is still large, but it can be reduced if a detailed map becomes available.

Numerical Study of Pre-swirl Stator for Model and Full Scales (스케일 변화에 따른 전류고정날개의 영향 수치해석)

  • Park, Sunho;Oh, Gwangho;Rhee, Shin Hyung;Koo, Bon-Yong;Lee, Hoseong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2014
  • Interests on energy saving devices (ESDs) have been increased with the concern of the energy efficiency design index (EEDI) developed by the international maritime organization (IMO). To study the influence of ESDs, KVLCC2 with energy saving pre-swirl stator (PSS) was selected. To validate the computations, computed nominal wake of the model scale ship was compared with the experimental data, and the numerical uncertainty assessment was done for the full scale ship computations. The PSS changed rotational flow, which was assistant to the propeller thrust for the model and full scale ships. Performances of the full scale ships were predicted by ITTC methods, and new prediction method was proposed.

Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.