• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Factor

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Uncertainty Analysis of Soft Ground Using Geostatistical Kriging Method (지구통계학 크리깅 기법을 이용한 연약지반의 불확실성 분석)

  • Yoon Gil-Lim;Lee Kang-Woon;Chae Young-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2005
  • Spatial uncertainty of Busan marine clay ground, which commonly occurs during site investigation testing, data analysis and transformation modeling, has been described. In this paper geotechnical uncertainty of shear strength indicator $N_k$ has been quantified in both horizontal direction and vertical direction using geostatistical Kriging method. Most of soil data used are from 25 boring tests, 75 laboratory tests, 124 field vane tests and 25 cone penetration tests (CPT). CPT-$N_k$ data for undrained shear strength determination, which are the most important properties in geotechnical design stages, have been analysed. Comparison between cone factor from conventional CPT-based method and that of geostatistical method shows that geostatistical Kriging method is an ideal tool to quantify the spatial variability of uncertainty from self-correlation of soil property of interest, and can be recommended to identify the spatial distribution of consolidation .md shear strength of soils at any sites concerned.

Sensitivity and uncertainty quantification of neutronic integral data in the TRIGA Mark II research reactor

  • Makhloul, M.;Boukhal, H.;Chakir, E.;El Bardouni, T.;Lahdour, M.;Kaddour, M.;Ahmed, Abdulaziz;Arectout, A.;El Yaakoubi, H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.523-531
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    • 2022
  • In order to study the sensitivity and the uncertainty of the Moroccan research reactor TRIGA Mark II, a model of this reactor has been developed in our ERSN laboratory for use with the N-Particle MCNP Monte Carlo transport codes (version 6). In this article, the sensitivities of the effective multiplication factor of this reactor are evaluated using the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0 libraries and in 44 energy groups, for the cross sections of the fuel (U-235 and U-238) and the moderator (H-1 and O-16). However, the quantification of the uncertainty of the nuclear data is performed using the nuclear code NJOY99 for the generation and processing of covariance matrices. On the one hand, the highest uncertainty deviations, calculated using the ENDFB-VII.1 and JENDL4.0 evaluations, are 2275, 386 and 330 pcm respectively for the reactions U235(n, f), $ U_{235}(n\bar{\nu})$ and H1(n, γ). On the other hand, these differences are very small for the neutron reactions of O-16 and U-238. Regarding the neutron spectra, in CT-mid plane, they are very close for the three evaluations (ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VII.1 and JENDL-4.0). These spectra present two peaks (thermal and fission) around the energies 0.05 eV and 1 MeV.

Estimation of Failure Rate and Acceleration Factor in Accelerated Life Testing under Type-I Censoring (정시중단 가속수명시험에서 고장률과 가속계수의 추정)

  • Kong, Myung Bock;Park, Il Gwang
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2003
  • We consider the estimation of failure rate and acceleration factor under type-I censoring without using acceleration model when testing is conducted in only one highly accelerated condition. Failure times of an item are assumed to be exponentially distributed. It is also assumed that the uncertainty about the acceleration factor, the failure time contraction ratio between accelerated condition and use condition, can be modeled by the uniform or gamma prior distribution of appropriate parameters. We respectively use Bayes and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate acceleration factor and failure rate in the use condition. An example is given to show how the method can be applied.

RFID Implementation Readiness Model : Impact of Technology, Human, Vender, and Task Factors

  • Lim, Se-Hun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.71-87
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    • 2011
  • Currently, many companies are interested in (Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). Nonetheless, technical imperfection and the uncertainty of Return on Investment (ROD is discouraging the companies' intention to implement RFID. Accordingly, while a number of companies concede the efficiency of RFID, few of them expresses enthusiasm, making a rain check to adopt RFID. Moreover, the recent economic depression has down-sized the companies' investment on Information Technology (IT), subsequently hindering RFID implementation. In adopting RFID, the collaboration of supply chain is the most importance factor. Therefore, in implementing RFID, many companies reinforced collaboration of supply chain. Therefore, this study will focus on performing an analysis on several factors which influence the intention to adoption of RFID, such as the human factor, technology factor, vender factor and task factor. The results of this study will provide useful guidelines for RFID adoption strategy to Korean companies.

The Effect of PL Leadership and Characteristics of Project on Project Participants' Satisfaction and Performance (PL 리더십 성향과 프로젝트 특성요인이 프로젝트 참여 만족 및 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Hee-Dong;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kang, So-Ra
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2010
  • The study was originated from recognition that project participants' satisfaction should be Improved to raise project performance and to make progress of a successful project since the above dissatisfaction was operated as a danger factor of the project. The study selected one large-scale sample project and attempted measuring characteristics of the project, participants' satisfaction and project performance with the whole project participants. The study analyzed correlations between individual level (team members) and group level (development team), and examined what effect a sub project manager under complicated hierarchical organization of the large-scale project, namely PL (project leader)'s leadership style had on each individual project participant's satisfaction and what effect project uncertainty in organization/technology environment had on project participants' satisfaction and project performance. The study verified that development team (group) had an effect on team member (individual)-level project participants' satisfaction by disclosing that there was a significant dispersion among groups within project participants' satisfaction by each individual. It is analyzed that it is necessary to make improvement through approach by each pertinent team to raise individual-level project participants' satisfaction. The study also verified PL's ideal leadership under strict methodology and hierarchical control of the large-scale project. Based on the verification of the hypotheses, the results of the analysis were produced as follows. First, the development team affects the satisfaction level that an individual has when he/she participates in a project. This suggests that the satisfaction with project participation should be improved at the team level. In addition, the project management style and leadership orientation of the manager of a sub project who is mostly affected by the team proved to have a direct influence on the satisfaction with project participation and project performances. Second, both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership of the PL of the development team were verified to have a significant effect on the satisfaction of the team members associated with project participation. In other words, when the team members recognize that the PL of the development team shows both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership, their satisfaction with project participation increases accordingly. Third, it was verified that the uncertainty of the organizational environment significantly affects the satisfaction level when the PL of the development team exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership. The higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the relationship-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the performance-oriented leadership style. Fourth, when the PL of the development team exerts the relationship-related and performance-related leadership, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant influence on the satisfaction level. The higher the uncertainty of the technological environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the performance-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the relationship-oriented leadership style. The result of the research on the uncertainty of the project environment suggests that when the development team leader exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the organizational environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment, the more the satisfaction level decreases, and the relationship-oriented leadership style affects the satisfaction level more positively than the performance-oriented leadership style. In addition, when the development team leader displays a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the technological environment. the more the satisfaction level decreases. The performance-oriented leadership style as well affects the satisfaction level more positively than the relationship-oriented leadership style. Based on the above results, the research provides the following implications when handling multiple concurrent projects. First, the satisfaction with the participation in the multiple concurrent projects needs to be enhanced at the team (group) level. Second. the manager of the project team, particularly the middle managers should have both a performance-oriented and relationship (task and human)-oriented attitude and exert a consolidated leadership in order to improve the satisfaction of team members with project participation and their performances. Third, as the uncertainty factor of the technological and organizational environment among the characteristics factors of the project has room for methodological improvement depending on one's effort even though there are some complications, we need to continuously prevent and control the risks resulting from the uncertainties of the technological and organizational environment of the project in order to enhance the satisfaction of project participation and project performances. Fourth, the performance (task)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in a technological environment while the relationship (human)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in an organizational environment. This research has the following limitations. First, this research intended to select one large-sized sample project and measure the project characteristics, the satisfaction of all the participants associated with project participation, and their performances. Therefore, it is inappropriate to generalize and apply the result of this result onto other numerous projects. Second, as this case study entailed a survey to measure the characteristics factors and performance of the project, since the result value was based on the perception of project team members, the data may have insufficient objectivity. Third, though this research targeted on all the project participants, some development teams did not provide sufficient data and questionnaires were collected from some specific development teams among the 23 development teams, causing a significant deviation in the response rate among the development teams. Therefore, we need to continuously conduct the follow-up researches making comparisons among the multiple projects, and centering on the characteristics factors of the project and its satisfaction level.

Effect SCM Capacity Factor of Small and Medium-Sized Supplier on Operational Performance: Focused on Moderating Effect of Demand Uncertainty (중소 공급업체의 SCM역량요인이 운영성과에 미치는 영향: 수요불확실성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jung-dae
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed both the effect small and medium-sized suppliers' SCM capacity on the performance and how the moderating effect of demand uncertainty as an environmental factor affects this relation. The study is based on the data collected from the survey of small and medium-sized suppliers operating in electronics, metal, machinery, automobile, and textile. It analyzed the results of survey targeting suppliers of these areas by using structure equation modeling. According to the analyzed result, the relation capital of small and medium-sized supplier affects the performance, but there is no relation between coordination capability and the performance. In case of the moderating effect of demand uncertainty, while there is a positive moderating effect of demand uncertainty between relation capital and performance, there is no any moderating effect between coordination capability and performance. It turns out that the relation capital keep having a positive effect on the performance even if there is a demand uncertainty.

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Temperature Correction of Solar Radiation on Clear Sky Using by Modified Pyranometer (특수일사계를 이용한 맑은 날 일사량의 온도 보정)

  • Zo, Il-Sung;Jeong, Myeong-Jae;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Jee, Joon-Bum;Kim, Bu-Yo
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2015
  • Pyranometer have many uncertainty factors (sensitivity function, thermal offset, other spectral effect, geometric, environment, and equipment etc.) than pyrheliometer. The solution for most of the uncertainty factors have been researched, but the problem for thermal offset is being continued research so far. Under the clear sky, due to the thermal offset of pyranometer, the diffuse and global radiation have been negative value for the nighttime and lower value for the daytime, respectively. In order to understand the uncertainty of the thermal offset effect, solar radiation are observed and analyzed using Ji and Tsay method and data from modified pyranometer. As a result of performing temperature correction using the modified pyranometer, the slope (dome factor; k) and intercept ($r_0$) from a linear regression method are 0.064 and $3.457g{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}k^{-1}$, respectively. And the solar radiation is decreased significantly due to the effect of thermal offset during nighttime. The solar radiation from modified pyranometer increased approximately 8% higher than its observed by general pyranometer during daytime. By the way, these results did not generalize because its result is for only single case in clear sky. Accordingly, it is to required for accurate results obtained by the various cases (clear, cloudy and rainy) with longterm observations.

An Improved Analytic Model for Power System Fault Diagnosis and its Optimal Solution Calculation

  • Wang, Shoupeng;Zhao, Dongmei
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2018
  • When a fault occurs in a power system, the existing analytic models for the power system fault diagnosis could generate multiple solutions under the condition of one or more protective relays (PRs) and/or circuit breakers (CBs) malfunctioning, and/or an alarm or alarms of these PRs and/or CBs failing. Therefore, this paper presents an improved analytic model addressing the above problem. It takes into account the interaction between the uncertainty involved with PR operation and CB tripping and the uncertainty of the alarm reception, which makes the analytic model more reasonable. In addition, the existing analytic models apply the penalty function method to deal with constraints, which is influenced by the artificial setting of the penalty factor. In order to avoid the penalty factor's effects, this paper transforms constraints into an objective function, and then puts forward an improved immune clonal multi-objective optimization algorithm to solve the optimal solution. Finally, the cases of the power system fault diagnosis are served for demonstrating the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed model and method.

Probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes with cracks

  • Zhu, J.Q.;Yang, X.L.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2018
  • To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

The Influence of Origin Regulations on the FTA Utilization and Export Performance of Automobile Parts Companies

  • Se-Hyun Park
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.58-76
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study examined the Rules of Origin (RoO) as a factor affecting free trade agreements' (FTA) utilization and analyzed the causal relationship and the effects of these factors on the export performance of automobile parts companies. Design/methodology - We analyzed and verified the impact of FTA utilization and the export performance of automobile parts companies by dividing the characteristics of the RoO into complexity and uncertainty. Following which, various statistical analyses were conducted on the interrelationships among these variables. Findings - This research analyzed the effect of the RoO factors of complexity and uncertainty on the use of FTA and the export performance of automobile parts companies. We found that these characteristics of RoO were generally related to and affected the FTA use and export performance of these companies. Based on this, this study's investigation into the characteristics of the RoO would then help companies in better utilizing the FTA, as well as providing suggestions on how to effectively respond to the application of the FTA in the future. Originality/value - Companies that want to utilize FTAs in international trade must follow the RoO. In the Regional Trade Agreement (RTA), the country-of-origin is a key factor, with the RoO being an important requirement for the application of preferential tariffs. These regulations are a requirement for receiving FTA preferential treatment; however, they also cause difficulties to companies in using the FTA.