• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.15-25
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• 2013

In this study, two kinds of soil-based proficiency testing materials (PTMs), NICE-012L and NICE-012R were prepared and certified for Benzen, Toluene, Etylbenzene and Xylene with evaluation of uncertainties. In order to analyse BTEX (Benzen Toluene Etylbenzene Xylene) for the candidate materials, GC/MS was used after pretreatment according to methods of soil analysis by Ministry of Environment. For the homogeneity test among bottles in terms of candidate materials, ISO 13528 and IUPAC Protocol were used and according to the result, both candidate materials showed sufficient homogeneity. Also, the stability test over the candidate materials was accessed according to the ISO Guide 35 by classifying short-term and long-term stability and the result showed that both candidate materials showed decent stability. The reference values of the two candidate materials depending on BTEX components were derived from the average of the 11 samples that were used for verification of the samples' homogeneity. Uncertainty of measurement was combined by uchar that was caused by a characteristic value, $u_{bb}$ that was caused by between-bottle homogeneity, and $u_{stab}$ that was caused by stability, and then combined uncertainty ($u_{PTM}$) was multiplied to the coverage factor (k) derived from the effective degree of freedom from each factor that leads to expanded uncertainty (U) in about 95% of confidence level. The proficiency testing materials developed through this study were supplied to National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) and utilized as an external proficiency testing materials for evaluating analysis capacity of soil agencies with specialty in terms of soil analysis approved by Minister of Environment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권9호
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• pp.1181-1190
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• 2009

Knowing more about the Local Power Density (LPD) at the hottest part of a nuclear reactor core can provide more important information than knowledge of the LPD at any other position. The LPD at the hottest part needs to be estimated accurately in order to prevent the fuel rod from melting in a nuclear reactor. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have successfully been applied in classification and regression problems. Therefore, in this paper, the power peaking factor, which is defined as the highest LPD to the average power density in a reactor core, was estimated by SVMs which use numerous measured signals of the reactor coolant system. The SVM models were developed by using a training data set and validated by an independent test data set. The SVM models' uncertainty was analyzed by using 100 sampled training data sets and verification data sets. The prediction intervals were very small, which means that the predicted values were very accurate. The predicted values were then applied to the first fuel cycle of the Yonggwang Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3. The root mean squared error was approximately 0.15%, which is accurate enough for use in LPD monitoring and for core protection that uses LPD estimation.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.89-99
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 본 연구논제(2007)에서 개발된 COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1)으로부터 최적형태의 구조를 가진 모형을 구성하고, 입력층노드의 기상인자를 제거하기 위하여 불확실성 분석을 실시하였다. 훈련과정중에 가장 최소의 평활인자를 가진 입력층변수는 COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1)에서 제거되었으며, 변형된 COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1)은 기상학적 변수의 새로운 최소 평활인자를 구하기 위하여 재훈련된다. 최소 평활인자를 가지는 입력층 노드는 모형결과치에 대하여 가장 유용하지 않는 기상인자인 것을 암시하고 있다. 게다가, 민감하거나 민감하지 않은 기상인자들이 불확실성 분석을 통하여 선택되어진다. 최적 COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1)은 최소 비용과 노력으로 결측 혹은 미계측 증발접시 증발량과 계측되고 있지 않은 알팔파 기준증발산량을 산정하기 위하여 개발되었다 마지막으로 치적 COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(TyPe-1)을 이용하여 우리나라에서 전반적인 가뭄해석 및 관개배수 시스템 구축을 위한 참고자료를 제공할 수 있는 증발접시 증발량 지도 및 알팔파 기준증발산량 지도도 구축되어질 수 있다.

• 한국유체기계학회 논문집
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.5-10
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• 2014

It is possible for the nation's largest flowmeter calibration system in K-water to calibrate flow rate up to $2,700m^3/h$ and diameter 800mm. However, the calibration and measurement capability of K-water's system is not satisfied in comparison with other developed countries. In this study, we find the dominant factors related to the uncertainty of weight and time measurement for gravimetric flowmeter calibration system. As a results of improving the system, the combined standard uncertainty has been improved $1.099{\times}10^{-3}$ to $2.332{\times}10^{-4}$. So calibration and measurement capability got 0.08 percent of the relative expanded uncertainty for maximum flow rate using the coverage factor(k=2).

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2016

모수불확실성을 반영하는 손실모형으로는 Heckman과 Meyers가 제안한 모형이 주로 인용되고 있다. 이 모형은 모수 자체가 어떤 확률분포를 따른다는 가정을 하고 있으며 IAA, Swiss Solvency Test, EU Solvency II 등에서 참고하고 있다. 반면 베이지안 기법을 이용한 연구는 모수에 대한 선험적 정보 즉, 사전분포를 이용하여 모수불확실성을 반영한다. 그러나 현실에서는 두 가지 방법을 동시에 고려해야 하는 상황이 빈번히 발생한다. 이에 본 연구는 Heckman-Meyers의 모형과 베이지안 접근법을 동시에 고려한 베이지안 H-M CRM모형을 제안하고 그 특성을 분석하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.661-671
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• 2003

본 연구는 홍수위 계산에 있어서 도입되는 불확식성의 원인을 분석하고 정량화하여 확률론적 홍수위 계산을 실시함으로서 제방원류에 대한 제내지의 범람특성을 해석할 수 있는 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위해서 홍수위에 영향을 미치는 각종 영향인자를 통계학적으로 분석하였고, 이들 인자를 부등류와 부정류 해석과정에 Monte Carlo 모의를 도입함으로써 홍수위에 미치는 영향을 정량화하였다. 개발된 모형의 검증을 위해 낙동강 유역의 현풍∼적포교구간에 적용하였다. 제내지로의 범람양상과 역류양상을 합리적으로 모의하였고 질량보존도 잘 모의하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 제내지 침수양상 모의시 붕괴폭, 붕괴시간 등의 불확실도를 고려하여 침수수심 및 침수면적을 산정하였다.

• 한국진공학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.186-194
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• 2005

정적법 고진공 표준기를 이용하여 스피닝 로터 게이지를 $4.04\times10^{-3}$ $Pa\~1.11\times10^{-2}$Pa에서 교정하였으며, 그 결과를 국제표준화기구에서 권고한 측정불확도 표현지침에 따라 불확도를 계산 및 평가하였다. 평가 결과 기준압력 $7.5488\times10^{-3}$ Pa에서 교정된 SRG의 합성표준불확도는 $95\%$ 신뢰수준, 포함인자 k = 1에서 $3.0035\times10^{-5}$ Pa로 나타났다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.321-336
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• 2022

Model uncertainty is a key factor that could influence the accuracy and reliability of numerical model-based analysis. It is necessary to acquire an appropriate updating approach which could search and determine the realistic model parameter values from measurements. In this paper, the Bayesian model updating theory combined with the transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) method and K-means cluster analysis is utilized in the updating of the structural model parameters. Kriging and polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) are employed to generate surrogate models to reduce the computational burden in TMCMC. The selected updating approaches are applied to three structural examples with different complexity, including a two-storey frame, a ten-storey frame, and the national stadium model. These models stand for the low-dimensional linear model, the high-dimensional linear model, and the nonlinear model, respectively. The performances of updating in these three models are assessed in terms of the prediction uncertainty, numerical efforts, and prior information. This study also investigates the updating scenarios using the analytical approach and surrogate models. The uncertainty quantification in the Bayesian approach is further discussed to verify the validity and accuracy of the surrogate models. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the surrogate model-based updating approaches are discussed for different structural complexity. The possibility of utilizing the boosting algorithm as an ensemble learning method for improving the surrogate models is also presented.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권2호
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• pp.91-99
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• 2016

To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.41-60
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• 2015

기술혁신형 기업은 불확실한 경영환경에서 경영자 특유의 열정과 노하우 그리고 아이디어로 시장을 개척한다. 따라서 경영자의 기업가정신을 바탕으로 한 이들 기업에게 환경의 불확실성은 새로운 기회로 작용할 수 있다. 기술혁신형 기업들은 일반기업에 비해 가용자원의 한계를 지니며, 이들 기업이 입지한 지역의 산업인프라는 가용자원의 한계를 극복할 수 있는 중요한 자원이 된다. 본 연구는 기술혁신형 기업을 대상으로 환경불확실성, 산업인프라, 기업가정신이 혁신역량과 경쟁적 성과에 미치는 영향을 연구모형으로 제시하고, 구조방정식모형을 통해 실증적으로 검정하였으며, 본 연구모형에서 제시한 관계가 통계적으로 유의하다는 것을 발견하였다. 또한 환경불확실성, 산업인프라, 기업가정신이 혁신역량을 매개하는 것으로 확인하였다. 결론에서는 연구결과를 요약하고 이론 및 실무적 관점에서의 시사점과 본 연구의 한계를 통한 추후 연구의 과제를 제시하였다.