• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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A Study on The Investment of The Secondhand BulkShip Using Real Option Model (실물옵션을 활용한 중고선박 가치평가연구)

  • Lee, Chong-Woo;Jang, Chul-Ho;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2022
  • Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

A Comparison of Pan-sharpening Algorithms for GK-2A Satellite Imagery (천리안위성 2A호 위성영상을 위한 영상융합기법의 비교평가)

  • Lee, Soobong;Choi, Jaewan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.275-292
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    • 2022
  • In order to detect climate changes using satellite imagery, the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) defines requirements such as spatio-temporal resolution, stability by the time change, and uncertainty. Due to limitation of GK-2A sensor performance, the level-2 products can not satisfy the requirement, especially for spatial resolution. In this paper, we found the optimal pan-sharpening algorithm for GK-2A products. The six pan-sharpening methods included in CS (Component Substitution), MRA (Multi-Resolution Analysis), VO (Variational Optimization), and DL (Deep Learning) were used. In the case of DL, the synthesis property based method was used to generate training dataset. The process of synthesis property is that pan-sharpening model is applied with Pan (Panchromatic) and MS (Multispectral) images with reduced spatial resolution, and fused image is compared with the original MS image. In the synthesis property based method, fused image with desire level for user can be produced only when the geometric characteristics between the PAN with reduced spatial resolution and MS image are similar. However, since the dissimilarity exists, RD (Random Down-sampling) was additionally used as a way to minimize it. Among the pan-sharpening methods, PSGAN was applied with RD (PSGAN_RD). The fused images are qualitatively and quantitatively validated with consistency property and the synthesis property. As validation result, the GSA algorithm performs well in the evaluation index representing spatial characteristics. In the case of spectral characteristics, the PSGAN_RD has the best accuracy with the original MS image. Therefore, in consideration of spatial and spectral characteristics of fused image, we found that PSGAN_RD is suitable for GK-2A products.

Analysis of the Relationship between Macpa Stress Index and Korean Job Stress Level - Focusing on Subway Construction Workers (맥파 스트레스와 한국인 직무스트레스의 상관관계 분석 - 도시철도 건설종사자를 대상으로)

  • Chae, Joung Sik;Lee, Yu Jeong;Chang, Seong Rok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.64-69
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    • 2022
  • The study measured a subway construction worker's Macpa stress by Heart Rate Variability measuring instrument and conducted a survey of Korean job stress from subway construction workers. Also, the study analyzed the relationship between Macpa stress index and Korean job stress result and suggested managing stress method for each item. According to National Statistical Office data, the first line subway in Seoul was started to open in 1974. The extended total length is 996 kilometers until 2019. Many aged workers are currently working at subway construction sites due to the avoidance of young workers since the past until now. It means that the elderly has a substantial portion among subway construction workers. The productivity has been adversely affected by health problems due to the aging of workers, job stress due to heavy work, and personal health problems. So, the regulation and policies on job stress health management are being strengthened. The data were measured Macpa stress by machine measuring heart rate variability and conducted Korean job stress survey(shortened) from Sa-sang to Ha-dan line Busan subway construction workers for analyzing the relationship. Independent variable were age, job duration, job position, employment type, working type in this study. Macpa's dependent variable was stress index and Korean job stress survey(shortened)'s dependent variables were job requirements, job autonomy, relationship conflict, job instability, organizational structure, inappropriate compensation, working place culture, and total score. SPSS 12.0 K Statistics Program was used for statistical analysis. Kruskal-wallis test, a nonparametric statistical analysis, was used because the data are difficult to be assumed as normal distribution. As a result, the paper indicated the significant correlation between Macpa stress index and Korean job stress(short version). The elderly workers presented higher Macpa index and higher job stress due to aging and heavy-duty work. The majority workers were daily workers who had unstable working condition and uncertainty about the future. The study suggested a manual that could reduce job stress for subway construction workers and future study deriving management tool through analyzing job stress factor is necessary.

Characterization of few-layered reduced graphene oxide (rGO) for standardization (소수의 층을 갖는 환원 graphene oxide(rGO) 표준화를 위한 물성분석)

  • Ahn, Hae Jun;Huh, Seung Hun;Jee, Youngho;Lee, Byeong Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 2022
  • Reduced graphene oxide (rGO) has attracted many attention and applications due to its excellent electrochemical ability. Therefore, standardization of rGO through structural and thermal analysis facilitates quality improvement and management, enabling users to increase efficiency and reduce relevant costs. For rGO and graphene-related materials, it is very important to determine the number of layers and define the resulting difference in physical properties. In this study, 3~4 layers of rGO-1 and 9~10 layers of rGO-2 were obtained from graphene oxide (GO) through a hydrazine reduction process. For the prepared rGOs, X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern obtained a diffraction peak at 2θ≈25° related to (002) reflection was used to calculate the layer numbers by determining interlayer distance and FWHM value. To reduce the angular uncertainty, XRD data analysis was performed with angle correction using standard reference materials for X-ray powder diffraction analysis. Precise interlayer distance and number of layers were determined using OriginLab and open-source XRD diffraction analysis programs using the angle-corrected diffraction data. TG-DSC thermal analysis was performed to further standardize the physical properties of rGO samples.

Development of a Noble Gas Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometric System Combined with a Cryogenic Cold Trap (초저온 냉각 트랩을 결합한 비활성기체 동위원소 희석 질량분석 시스템의 제작)

  • HONG, BONGJAE;SHIN, DONGYOUB;PARK, KEYHONG;HAHM, DOSHIK
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.144-157
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    • 2022
  • Noble gases, which are chemically inert and behave conservatively in marine environments, have been used as tracers of physical processes such as air-sea gas exchange, mixing of water masses, and distribution of glacial meltwater in the ocean. For precise measurements of Ne, Ar, and Kr, we developed a mass spectrometric system consisting of a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS), a high vacuum preparation line, an activated charcoal cryogenic trap (ACC), and a set of isotope standard gases. The high vacuum line consists of three sections: (1) a sample extraction section that extracts the dissolved gases in the sample and mixes them with the standard gases, (2) a gas preparation section that removes reactive gases using getters and separates the noble gases according to their evaporation points with the ACC, and (3) a gas analysis section that measures concentrations of each noble gas. The ACC attached to the gas preparation section markedly lowered the partial pressures of Ar and CO2 in the QMS, which resulted in a reduced uncertainty of Ne isotope analysis. The isotope standard gases were prepared by mixing 22Ne, 36Ar, and 86Kr. The amounts of each element in the mixed standard gases were determined by the reverse isotope dilution method with repeated measurements of the atmosphere. The analytical system achieved precisions for Ne, Ar, and Kr concentrations of 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively. The accuracies confirmed by the analyses of air-equilibrated water were 0.5%, 1.0%, and 1.7% for Ne, Ar, and Kr, respectively.

The Uncertainty of Logical Time The Time of Lacan's Psychoanalysis Flows Backwards (논리적 시간의 균열 라캉 정신분석의 시간은 거꾸로 흐른다)

  • Lee, Dong Seok
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2021
  • This study begins on the basis of Jacques Lacan's article 『Logical Time and Assertions of Preemptive Certainty: A New Sophism』 published in the reissue of 『Art Note Les Cahiers d'Art』 in March 1945. In this paper, a guard presents an esoteric problem to three prisoners. If the problem is solved, the prisoner is released. A condition is given to solve a problem. Conversation between prisoners is prohibited, and the disc behind them cannot be seen. In this time and space, prisoners place themselves in logical time through the 'time of understanding' in order to become the chosen ones. We always live in logical time. We will argue the point at which Lacan destroys logical time in psychoanalysis. Time in Lacanian psychoanalysis transcends time divisions of the past, present, and future. Our time is always the past in the present. In Lacanian psychoanalysis, logical time is the time in the Other. The transcendence of the Lacanian psychoanalysis concept of time shows the deviation of logical time. In this text, We try to prove how Lacan contrasts psychoanalysis and the problem of time with time in the other. First, we will examine how logical time and impulse are related in psychoanalysis. Second, the postmortemity of the signifient (signifier) will be discussed. Third, Lacan psychoanalysis will present the transcendence of time. In conclusion, We will present the view that the time of Lacan psychoanalysis is flowing backwards. In Lacanian psychoanalysis, we try to prove that logical time is in the territory of the Other and is infinite time.

A study on the Effect of Relational Energy and Resilience on Individual Job Performance through Job Crafting (관계적에너지와 회복탄력성이 직무재창조를 통하여 개인직무성과에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Nam, Eun Woo;Sun, Eun Jung;Seo, Young Wook
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.529-544
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    • 2022
  • With the global pandemic in the era of the 4th industrial revolution, the business environment of companies was engulfed by rapid volatility and uncertainty. In particular, in order for an organization to have high competitiveness due to the spread of the flexible work system, relationship management with members of the organization and self-directed job crafting are recognized as important key resources. This study aims to investigate how relational energy and resilience within a corporate organization affect job crafting and to verify the effect of job crafting on individual job performance. For empirical research, 400 valid responses to employees of general companies were analyzed by SPSS 26.0 and Smart PLS 3.0. As a result of the analysis, first, it was confirmed that relational energy did not have a positive (+) effect on task crafting. Second, it was found that relational energy had a positive (+) effect on relational crafting and cognitive crafting, respectively. Third, it was found that resilience had a positive (+) effect on both task crafting, relationship crafting, and cognitive crafting that constitute job crafting. Fourth, it was found that job crafting had a positive (+) effect on individual job performance. Based on these research results, we intend to derive academic and practical implications and provide practical help to follow-up researchers and stakeholders.

Rock Mechanics Site Characterization for HLW Disposal Facilities (고준위방사성폐기물 처분시설 부지에 대한 암반역학 부지특성화)

  • Um, Jeong-Gi;Hyun, Seung Gyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2022
  • The mechanical and thermal properties of the rock masses can affect the performance associated with both the isolating and retarding capacities of radioactive materials within the deep geological disposal system for High-Level Radioactive Waste (HLW). In this study, the essential parameters for the site descriptive model (SDM) related to the rock mechanics and thermal properties of the HLW disposal facilities site were reviewed, and the technical background was explored through the cases of the preceding site descriptive models developed by SKB (Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company), Sweden and Posiva, Finland. SKB and Posiva studied parameters essential for the investigation and evaluation of mechanical and thermal properties, and derived a rock mechanics site descriptive model for safety evaluation and construction of the HLW disposal facilities. The rock mechanics SDM includes the results obtained from investigation and evaluation of the strength and deformability of intact rocks, fractures, and fractured rock masses, as well as the geometry of large-scaled deformation zones, the small-scaled fracture network system, thermal properties of rocks, and the in situ stress distribution of the disposal site. In addition, the site descriptive model should provide the sensitivity analysis results for the input parameters, and present the results obtained from evaluation of uncertainty.

Evaluating SR-Based Reinforcement Learning Algorithm Under the Highly Uncertain Decision Task (불확실성이 높은 의사결정 환경에서 SR 기반 강화학습 알고리즘의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, So Hyeon;Lee, Jee Hang
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.331-338
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    • 2022
  • Successor representation (SR) is a model of human reinforcement learning (RL) mimicking the underlying mechanism of hippocampal cells constructing cognitive maps. SR utilizes these learned features to adaptively respond to the frequent reward changes. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of SR under the context where changes in latent variables of environments trigger the reward structure changes. For a benchmark test, we adopted SR-Dyna, an integration of SR into goal-driven Dyna RL algorithm in the 2-stage Markov Decision Task (MDT) in which we can intentionally manipulate the latent variables - state transition uncertainty and goal-condition. To precisely investigate the characteristics of SR, we conducted the experiments while controlling each latent variable that affects the changes in reward structure. Evaluation results showed that SR-Dyna could learn to respond to the reward changes in relation to the changes in latent variables, but could not learn rapidly in that situation. This brings about the necessity to build more robust RL models that can rapidly learn to respond to the frequent changes in the environment in which latent variables and reward structure change at the same time.

Heuristic Appearing in Experimental Manual Processing of Elementary School Students (초등학생의 실험매뉴얼 처리에서 나타나는 휴리스틱)

  • Yang, Ji-Hye;Yang, Il-Ho;Kim, Seong-Un
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.142-157
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    • 2022
  • Heuristic is a empirical method that is used quickly when uncertainty or insufficient time and information are insufficient. The purpose of this study is to find out what heuristics appear in the processing of the experimental manual among science experiment activities of elementary school students. To do this, 20 fifth-grade elementary school students (female 10 and male 10) were required to conduct scientific experimental activities as research participants to collect experimental behavior data and gaze movement data, and retrospective interviews were conducted. The collected data extracted and conceptualized behavior by heuristics. As a result of the study, there were five heuristics that appeared in the processing of the experimental manual: "reducing the difference between the target state and the current state," "guessing the experimental procedure," "paying attention to the expected results," "comparing with the picture of the experimental manual," and "using a trial and error strategy." According to each concept of heuristics, there were favorable and unfavorable aspects for experimental activities. In science experiment activities that students experience for the first time, there is a lack of information and the situation is uncertain, so behavior by heuristics appears in nature. Therefore, educators need to understand students' heuristics and guide scientific experimental activities.