• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.595-600
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• 2012

This study is to assess the application of SWAT-CUP(Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Calibration Uncertainty Programs) and to extend daily flow data from 8-day interval flow data which has been measured by Korean Ministry of Environment(MOE). Model sensitivity analysis and calibration were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting(SUIF-2), which is one of the programs interfaced with SWAT, in the package SWAT-CUP. The most sensitive parameters were SOL_K.sol, CH_N2.rte, CN2.mgt, SOL_BD.sol, ALPHA_BF.gw, ALPHA_BNK.rte, SOL_AWC.sol, CH_K2.rte, SFTMP.bsn, GW_DELAY.gw. Following the sensitivity analysis, SWAT-CUP calibration was carried out using 8-day interval flow data from January 2008 to December 2010. The results were then assessed based on the visual agreement and simulated flow plots and the performance statistics generated $R^2$ and NSE which are 0.71 and 0.61 respectively. Results of these statistics indicated that there was a good agreement between the observed and simulated flow. To extend daily flow data from 8-day interval flow data, parameters, which were estimated by SWAT-CUP, re-entered for SWAT model. As a result, the observed flow data were found to reflect the trend of simulated flow data. From these results, it is thought that this method could be used to provide daily flow data using 8-day interval flow data.

• 지질공학
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.287-300
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• 2004

Visual Modflow를 이용하여 터널 굴착 시 터널 내 지하수 유입 량과 영항반경에 영향을 미치는 수리 인자들에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 터널의 심도 및 수리전도도의 민감도가 가장 크게 나타났으며, 굴착 후 경과 시간에 따라 민감도의 순위가 달라지는 것으로 분석되었다. 비산출률의 경우 굴착 후 시간이 경과함에 따라 민감도가 지속적으로 증가하는 것으로 나타나 배수형 터널 설계 시 수리전도도와 함께 중요하게 고려되어야 할 변수인 것으로 밝혀졌다. 터널굴착 및 방수 처리 과정을 모사할 수 있는 부정류 모델링 기법을 제시하였으며, 실제 터널 설계 지역에 적용하여 굴착과정에서 발생하는 터널 내 지하수 유입량 주변 지역 지하수계의 변화를 예측하였다. 예측 모델의 결과는 모델 보정을 통하여 설정한 수리 전도도에 매우 민감하므로, 사후 모니터 링을 통한 모델 검증이 요구된다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2012

A thermal-optical transmittance carbon analyzer has been developed to determine particulate organic (OC) and elemental (EC) carbon. Several analysis factors affecting the sensitivity of OC and EC determination were investigated for the carbon analyzer. Although total carbon (TC) is usually consistent in the determination, OC and EC split is sensitive to adopted analysis protocol. In this study the maximum temperature in oxygen-free He in the analysis was examined as a main cause of the uncertainty. Prior to the sensitivity analysis consistency in OC-EC determination of the carbon analyzer and the uniformity of carbonaceous aerosol loading on a sampled filter were checked to be in acceptable range. EC/TC ratios were slightly decreased with increasing the maximum temperature between $550-800^{\circ}C$. For the increase of maximum temperature from $500^{\circ}C$ to $800^{\circ}C$, the EC/TC ratio was lowered by 4.65-5.61% for TC loading of 13-44 ${\mu}g/cm^2$ with more decrease at higher loading. OC and EC determination was not influenced by trace amount of oxygen in pure He (>99.999%), which is typically used in OC and EC analysis. The facing of sample loaded surface to incident laser beam showed negligible influence in the OC-EC split, but it caused elevated PC fraction in OC for forward facing relative to backward facing.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.789-796
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• 2003

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from the limited in-situ samples and the inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of piping for the marine embankment near shore. The result are compared with those of the deterministic piping stability analysis performed using the fininte element flow analysis. The random variables used are hydraulic conductivity of the ground subsurface and embankment, and the water level of both internal and external side of the embankment. The probability of piping is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of internal water level of the embankment among the random variables included in the reliability analysis. It is found that the lower limits of internal water level which satisfies the allowable proability of piping failure for the embankment studied were E.L(-) 1.83m and E.L(-) 1.48m during and after the construction of the embankment, respectively.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2019

The paper presents the results of a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of 12 feasible Russian nuclear energy deployment scenarios with thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. The comparative evaluation was performed based on 6 performance indicators and 5 different MCDA methods (Simple Scoring Model, MAVT / MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) in accordance with the recommendations elaborated by the IAEA/INPRO section. It is shown that the use of different MCDA methods to compare the nuclear energy deployment scenarios, despite some differences in the rankings, leads to well-coordinated and similar results. Taking into account the uncertainties in the weights within a multi-attribute model, it was possible to rank the scenarios in the absence of information regarding the relative importance of performance indicators and determine the preference probability for a certain nuclear energy deployment scenario. Based on the results of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and additional analysis of alternatives as well as the whole set of graphical and attribute data, it was possible to identify the most promising nuclear energy deployment scenario under the assumptions made.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.21-30
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• 2022

To mitigate the environmental impacts of the energy sector, the government of South Korea has made a continuous effort to facilitate the development and commercialization of renewable energy. As a result, the efficiency of renewable energy plants is not a consideration in the potential site selection process. To contribute to the overall sustainability of this increasingly important sector, this study utilizes the Black-Scholes model to evaluate the economic value of potential sites for off-site wind farms, while analyzing the environmental mitigation of these potential sites in terms of carbon emission reduction. In order to incorporate the importance of flexibility and uncertainty factors in the evaluation process, this study has developed a site evaluation model focused on system dynamics and real option approaches that compares the expected revenue and expected cost during the life cycle of off-site wind farm sites. Using sensitivity analysis, this study further investigates two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) on the economic value and carbon emission reduction of potential wind farm locations.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.10-17
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• 2011

Recently, electricity industry is facing high market uncertainty which has ever had and which increase risks in power market. In this study, we analyze risk factors such as discount rates, initial investment (overnight cost), plant factor, fuel cost, carbon price, etc, for the perspective of investor. For the analysis of risk factors, we used LCOE method. The results of this study show that renewable energy is more affected by plant factor and overnight cost than other risk factors. First, Renewable energy has higher proportion of overnight cost in the total investment than that of other technologies. Second, renewable energy is free of fuel cost and carbon price so plant factor is the most important factor, in other words, competitiveness of renewable energy depends on plant factor. Furthermore, we conducted economic feasibility of wind power and PV in domestic case study. The minimum requirement condition to get profitability is that plant factor 15% and overnight cost \6,000,000/kW and 26%, \2,200,000/kW for PV and Wind Power, respectively.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.764-775
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• 2020

Periodic safety reviews (PSRs) are conducted on operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and have been mandated also for research reactors in Korea, in response to the Fukushima accident. One safety review tool, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aims to identify weaknesses in the design and operation of the research reactor, and to evaluate and compare possible safety improvements. However, the PSA for research reactors is difficult due to scarce data availability. An important element in the analysis of research reactors is the reactor protection system (RPS), with its functionality and importance. In this view, we consider that of the AGN-201K, a zero-power reactor without forced decay heat removal systems, to demonstrate a risk-informed safety improvement study. By incorporating risk- and safety-significance importance measures, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, the proposed method identifies critical components in the RPS reliability model, systematically proposes potential safety improvements and ranks them to assist in the decision-making process.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.255-269
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• 2003

The objective of this study was to estimate human exposure to benzo (a)pyrene through multimedia/multi-pathway exposure scenario. The human exposure scenario for benzo(a)pyrene was consisted of 12 multiple exposure pathways, and the multipathway human exposure model based on this scenario constituted. In this study, the multipathway human exposure model was used to estimate the concentrations in the exposure contact media, human intake factors and lifetime average daily dose (LAD $D_{model}$) of benzo(a)pyrene in the environment. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the important parameters and Monte-Carlo simulation was undertaken to examine the uncertainty of the model. The total LAD $D_{model}$ was estimated to be 5.52${\times}$10$^{-7}$ mg/kg-day (2.06${\times}$10$^{-7}$ -8.65${\times}$10$^{-7}$ mg/kg-day) using the multipathway human exposure model. The inhalation dose accounted for 78% of the total LADD, whereas ingestion and dermal contact intake accounted for 20.2% and 1.8% of the total exposure, respectively. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the most significant contributing input parameter was benzo (a)pyrene concentration of ambient air. Consequently, exposure via inhalation in outdoor/indoor air was the highest compared with the exposure via other medium/pathways.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권7호
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• pp.945-952
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• 2009

The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident provides unique full scale data, thus providing opportunities to check the capability of codes to model overall plant behavior and to perform a spectrum of sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. As part of the TMI-2 analysis benchmark exercise sponsored by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD NEA), several member countries are continuing to improve their system analysis codes using the TMI-2 data. The Republic of Korea joined this benchmark exercise in November 2005. Seoul National University has analyzed the TMI-2 accident as well as the currently proposed alternative scenario along with a sensitivity study using the Modular Accident Analysis Program Version 4.03 (MAAP4.03) code in collaboration with the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company. Two input files are required to simulate the TMI-2 accident with MAAP4: the parameter file and an input deck. The user inputs various parameters, such as volumes or masses, for each component. The parameter file contains the information on TMI-2 relevant to the plant geometry, system performance, controls, and initial conditions used to perform these benchmark calculations. The input deck defines the operator actions and boundary conditions during the course of the accident. The TMI-2 accident analysis provided good estimates of the accident output data compared with the OECD TMI-2 standard reference. The alternative scenario has proposed the initial event as a loss of main feed water and a small break on the hot leg. Analysis is in progress along with a sensitivity study concerning the break size and elevation.