• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.581-605
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• 2018

In the soft drink industry, especially small and medium enterprises in Japan, there is a possibility of conversion from a labor-intensive industry to a capital-intensive. The demand for soft drinks may not be satisfied in the summer because the supply is too low to meet the demand. To address this situation, this paper proposes optimal investment that integrates demand uncertainty, based on real options approach (ROA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Two alternative options are compared and evaluated. One is the Bermudan option: to employ additional workers to elevate efficiency in summer and laying off in winter, this attitude is repeated each year. The other is the American option: to replace equipment to increase machine ability throughout the year. Results in ROA show that the highest improvement is gained if the two options are in a symbiotic relationship. Soft drink producers should search for replacing equipment, using the employees repeatedly. A temporary decision is not equal to an infinite decision.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.58 no.3
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• pp.396-407
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• 2020

As fossil fuels are depleted worldwide, alternative resources is required to replace fossil fuels, and biofuels are in the spotlight as alternative resources. Biofuels are produced from biomass, which is a renewable resource to produce biofuels or bio-chemicals. Especially, in order to substitute fossil fuels, the research focusing the biofuel (biodiesel) production based on CO₂ and biomass achieves more attention recently. To produce biomass-based biodiesel, the development of a supply chain network is required considering the amounts of feedstocks (ex, CO₂ and water) required producing biodiesel, potential locations and capacities of bio-refineries, and transportations of biodiesel produced at biorefineries to demand cities. Although many studies of the biomass-based biodiesel supply chain network are performed, there are few types of research handled the uncertainty in CO₂ supply which influences the optimal strategies of microalgae-based biodiesel production. Because CO₂, which is used in the production of microalgae-based biodiesel as one of important resources, is captured from the off-gases emitted in power plants, the uncertainty in CO₂ supply from power plants has big impacts on the optimal configuration of the biodiesel supply chain network. Therefore, in this study, to handle those issues, we develop the two-stage stochastic model to determine the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertainty in CO₂ supply. The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the expected total cost of the biodiesel supply chain network considering the uncertain CO₂ supply as well as satisfy diesel demands at each city. This model conducted a case study satisfying 10% diesel demand in the Republic of Korea. The overall cost of the stochastic model (US$ 12.9/gallon·y) is slightly higher (23%) than that of the deterministic model (US$ 10.5/gallon·y). Fluctuations in CO₂ supply (stochastic model) had a significant impact on the optimal strategies of the biodiesel supply network.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.08a
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• pp.1859-1864
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• 2004

An effective methodology is reported for the optimal design of multisite batch production/transportation and storage networks under uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, internally consumed, transported to or from other plant sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between plant sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sizes while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of large-scale supply chain system.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.537-544
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• 2004

An effective methodology is reported for determining the optimal lot size of batch processing and storage networks which include uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, infernally consumed, transported to or from other sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sires while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of the global supply chain.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.217-229
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• 2013

As customers' demands for diversified small-quantity products have been increased, there have been great efforts for a firm to respond to customers' demands flexibly and minimize the cost of inventory at the same time. To achieve that goal, in SCM perspective, many firms have tried to control the inventory efficiently. We present an mathematical model to determine the near optimal (s, S) policy of the supply chain, composed of multi suppliers, a warehouse and multi retailers. (s, S) policy is to order the quantity up to target inventory level when inventory level falls below the reorder point. But it is difficult to analyze inventory level because it is varied with stochastic demand of customers. To reflect stochastic demand of customers in our model, we do the analyses in the following order. First, the analysis of inventory in retailers is done at the mathematical model that we present. Then, the analysis of demand pattern in a warehouse is performed as the inventory of a warehouse is much effected by retailers' order. After that, the analysis of inventory in a warehouse is followed. Finally, the integrated mathematical model is presented. It is not easy to get the solution of the mathematical model, because it includes many stochastic factors. Thus, we get the solutions after the stochastic demand is approximated, then they are verified by the simulations.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.271-277
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• 2013

In spite of the emphasis on quality control in auto-industry, most of subcontract enterprises still lack a systematic in-process quality monitoring system for predicting the product/part quality for their customers. While their manufacturing processes have been getting automated and computer-controlled ever, there still exist many uncertain parameters and the process controls still rely on empirical works by a few skilled operators and quality experts. In this paper, a real-time product quality monitoring system for auto-manufacturing industry is presented to provide the systematic method of predicting product qualities from real-time production data. The proposed framework consists of a product quality ontology model for complex manufacturing supply chain environments, and a real-time quality prediction tool using support vector machine algorithm that enables the quality monitoring system to classify the product quality patterns from the in-process production data. A door trim production example is illustrated to verify the proposed quality prediction model.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.225-237
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• 2016

In conventional transportation problem (TP), all the parameters are always certain. But, many of the real life situations in industry or organization, the parameters (supply, demand and cost) of the TP are not precise which are imprecise in nature in different factors like the market condition, variations in rates of diesel, traffic jams, weather in hilly areas, capacity of men and machine, long power cut, labourer's over time work, unexpected failures in machine, seasonal changes and many more. To counter these problems, depending on the nature of the parameters, the TP is classified into two categories namely type-2 and type-4 fuzzy transportation problems (FTPs) under uncertain environment and formulates the problem and utilizes the trapezoidal fuzzy number (TrFN) to solve the TP. The existing ranking procedure of Liou and Wang (1992) is used to transform the type-2 and type-4 FTPs into a crisp one so that the conventional method may be applied to solve the TP. Moreover, the solution procedure differs from TP to type-2 and type-4 FTPs in allocation step only. Therefore a simple and efficient method denoted by PSK (P. Senthil Kumar) method is proposed to obtain an optimal solution in terms of TrFNs. From this fuzzy solution, the decision maker (DM) can decide the level of acceptance for the transportation cost or profit. Thus, the major applications of fuzzy set theory are widely used in areas such as inventory control, communication network, aggregate planning, employment scheduling, and personnel assignment and so on.

• Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.94-98
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• 1999

Optical scanning systems use glavanometers to point the laser beam to the desired position on the workpiece. The angular speed of a galvanometer is typically controlled using Proportional+Integral+Derivative(PID) control algorithms. However, natural variations in the dynamics of different galvanometers due to manufacturing, aging, and environmental factors(i.e., process uncertainty) impose a hard limit on the bandwidth of the galvanometer control system. In general, the control bandwidth translates directly into efficiency of the system response. Since the optical scanning system must have rapid response, the higher control bandwidth is required. Auto-tuning PID algorithms have been accepted in this area since they could overcome some of the problems related to process uncertainty. However, when the galvanometer is attached to a larger mechanical system, the combined dynamics often exhibit resonances. It is well understood that PId algorithms may not have the capacity to increase the control bandwidth in the face of such resonances. This paper compares the achieable performance and robustness of a galvanometer control system using a PID controller tuned by the Ziegler-Nichols method and a controller designed by the Quantitative Feedback Theory(QFT) method. The results clearly indicate that-in contrast to PID designs-QFT can deliver a single, fixed controller which will supply high bandwidth design even when the dynamics is uncertain and includes mechanical resonances.

• Advances in Traditional Medicine
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.17-23
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• 2008

While full recognition of the practical value of Traditional Chinese Medicine is being endorsed, the current stand on the research methodology of this field should be worked out. Since modern medicine has already developed a logical system of research methodology basing on the principles of deduction, any research on any system of medicine need to take reference to what is most popularly used and commonly recommended. The best way to approach research on Chinese Medicine, therefore, would be one that would take full reference to the methodology being used in modern medicine, while at the same time respecting the traditional approach. This would enable traditional medicine to be elevated to the level of general modern recognition. Nevertheless, innate problems in traditional medicine are making its research difficult. The problems lie in difficulties to achieve uniform herb supply, principles of randomization and placebo arrangements, uncertain chemical structures and toxicology etc. A practical approach centered on carefully planned evidence-based clinical trials, with parallel studies on biological activities and herb authentication is being recommended.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.204-209
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• 2012

본 논문은 전국적인 소매업체의 각 지점별 고객 수요가 불확실한 상황에서 고객 서비스 목표 수준을 충족하는 최적재고 수준을 결정하는 문제에 대해 연구하였다. 이를 위해 전국에 분포한 지점에서 물품을 판매하는 베스트바이, 월마트, 혹은 시어스와 같은 전국적인 소매업체 관점에서 사용할 수 있는 핵심 관리 지표(KPI)로서 ISR(In-Stock Ratio)를 정의하였으며, 전국적인 소매업체가 평균 ISR로 정의되는 고객 서비스 목표 수준을 충족하면서 각 지점 보유 재고의 총합을 최소화할 수 있는 최적화 모델을 수립하였다. 본 논문은 해당 모델에 항상 최적해가 존재함을 증명하고 해당 최적해를 Karush-Kuhn-Tucker 조건을 사용하여 고객 수요의 확률분포의 형태에 상관없이 일반화된 형태로 표현하였다. 또한 본 논문은 고객 수요가 정규분포와 같은 특정 확률분포를 따르는 경우에 대해 연구하였으며, 이 경우에 대한 최적 재고수준을 나타내는 식을 도출하였다. 마지막으로 본 논문에서는 상기 기술된 상황에 대한 수리적인 예제를 통하여 최적재고 수준과 확률분포 파라미터들간의 관계를 분석하였다.