• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.487-499
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• 2020

This paper proposes a novel approach to model updating for a large-scale cable-stayed bridge based on ambient vibration tests coupled with a hybrid metaheuristic search algorithm. Vibration measurements are carried out under excitation sources of passing vehicles and wind. Based on the measured structural dynamic characteristics, a finite element (FE) model is updated. For long-span bridges, ambient vibration test (AVT) is the most effective vibration testing technique because ambient excitation is freely available, whereas a forced vibration test (FVT) requires considerable efforts to install actuators such as shakers to produce measurable responses. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a famous metaheuristic algorithm applied successfully in numerous fields over the last decades. However, PSO has big drawbacks that may decrease its efficiency in tackling the optimization problems. A possible drawback of PSO is premature convergence leading to low convergence level, particularly in complicated multi-peak search issues. On the other hand, PSO not only depends crucially on the quality of initial populations, but also it is impossible to improve the quality of new generations. If the positions of initial particles are far from the global best, it may be difficult to seek the best solution. To overcome the drawbacks of PSO, we propose a hybrid algorithm combining GA with an improved PSO (HGAIPSO). Two striking characteristics of HGAIPSO are briefly described as follows: (1) because of possessing crossover and mutation operators, GA is applied to generate the initial elite populations and (2) those populations are then employed to seek the best solution based on the global search capacity of IPSO that can tackle the problem of premature convergence of PSO. The results show that HGAIPSO not only identifies uncertain parameters of the considered bridge accurately, but also outperforms than PSO, improved PSO (IPSO), and a combination of GA and PSO (HGAPSO) in terms of convergence level and accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.151-160
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• 2003

The stability of the designed rock slope is analysed based on two kinds of shear strength model. Besides the deterministic analysis, a probabilistic approach on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to deal with the uncertain characteristics of the discontinuity and the results obtained from two models are compared to each other. To carry out the research of characteristics of the discontinuity, BIPS, DOM Scanline survey data and direct shear test data are used, and chi-square test is used for determining the probability distribution function. The rock slope is evaluated to be stable in the deterministic analysis, but in the probabilistic analysis, the probability of failure is more than 5%, so, it is considered that the rock slope is unstable. In the shear strength models, the probability of the failure based on the Mohr-Coulomb model(linear model) is higher than that of the Barton model. It is supported by the fact that the Mohr-Coulomb model is more sensitive to block size than the Barton model. In fact, there is no reliable way to estimate the unit cohesion of the Mohr-Coulomb model except f3r back analysis and in the case of small block failure in the slope, Mohr-Coulomb model may excessively evaluate the factor of the safety. So, the Barton model of which parameters are easily acquired using the geological survey is more reasonable for the stability of the studied slope. Also, the selection of the proper shear strength model is an important factor for slope failure analysis.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.25-40
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• 2001

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.39 no.8
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• pp.751-758
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• 2015

Mathematical models are actively used to reduce the experimental expenses required to understand physical phenomena. However, they are different from real phenomena because of assumptions or uncertain parameters. In this study, we present a calibration and validation method using a paper helicopter and statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty. The data from the experiment using three nominally identical paper helicopters consist of different groups, and are used to calibrate the drag coefficient, which is an unknown input parameter in both analytical models. We predict the predicted fall time data using probability distributions. We validate the analysis models by comparing the predicted distribution and the experimental data distribution. Moreover, we quantify the uncertainty using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, we compare the manufacturing error and experimental error obtained from the fall-time data using Analysis of Variance. As a result, all of the paper helicopters are treated as one identical model.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.52-60
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• 2017

Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the habitability of an operator for a cabinet fire in the main control room of a nuclear power plant presented in NUREG-1934. To this end, a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used. As the criteria for determining the habitability of operator, toxic products, such as CO, were also considered, as well as radiative heat flux, upper layer temperature, smoke layer height, and optical density of smoke. As a result, the probabilities of exceeding the criteria for habitability were evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the major input parameters and the uncertainty analysis of fire model for various fire scenarios, based on V&V (Verification and Validation). Sensitivity analyses of the maximum heat release rate, CO and soot yields, showed that the habitable time and the limit criterion, which determined the habitability, could be changed. The present methodology will be a realistic alternative to enhancing the reliability for a habitability evaluation in the main control room using uncertain information of cabinet fires.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.348-356
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• 2016

Carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) gases concentration in atmosphere has been growing since preindustrial times. By sequestering a large amount of atmospheric carbon (C), terrestrial ecosystems are thought to offer a mitigation strategy for reducing global warming. Woody agro-ecosystems such as fruit tree are among the least quantified and most uncertain elements in the terrestrial carbon cycle. $CO_2$ and energy fluxes were measured by the eddy covariance method on a 15-year old apple orchard of South Korea in 2006. Environmental parameters (net radiation, precipitation, etc.) were measured along with fluxes. The results showed that during late June, the ability to sequestrate C was significant at an apple orchard ecosystem and it reached on the peak of $-6.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. We found that in the apple orchard, the daily average of net ecosystem exchange of $CO_2$ (NEE) and cumulative NEE on a yearly basis were $-1.1g\;C\;m^{-2}$ and $-396.9g\;C\;m^{-2}$, respectively. These results reveal that there is high carbon sequestration in the apple orchard of South Korea, which is the same magnitude with repect to that of a natural forested ecosystem of the same biome rank (temperate-humid deciduous forest).

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.99-106
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• 2002

Objective : Until now, there have been no evidence-based guidelines produced for the mass screening of hyperlipidemia cases in Korea. This study was done to find the most efficient strategy for a hyperlipidemia-screening program among Korean adults, Method : Seven alternative strategies for hyperlipidemia screening were formulated and compared ir terms of cost-effectiveness. Cost and effectiveness were estimated from social perspectives and using a two-stage screening process (initial testing and additional testing for positives from the first test). A computerized database (based on persons who had visited a health promotion center in one teaching hospital for a routine health check-up) was used to determine the cost and the outcome of various strategies. Official data was used in calculating direct and indirect costs. Effectiveness was measured according to the number of persons who needed clinical intervention for hyperlipidemia. A stratified analysis, considering age group and sex, was then done. Sensitivity analyses, focusing on several uncertain parameters, were also done. Results : Of the seven test alternatives available, the most cost-effective strategy was a screening program, which consisted of an initial test of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride. There was some variation in the rank of the cost-effectiveness ratios for the seven alternatives dependent on age group or gender. Conclusions : Current hyperlipidemia screening practice, for National Health Insurance beneficiaries, tests only the total cholesterol level with a cut-off value of 260mg/dl as an initial screening test. It is not the best strategy for cost-effectiveness, and should be modified. Different screening strategies taking age group and sex into account should be developed and used for the efficient mass screening of hyperlipidemia cases among Korean adults.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.747-752
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• 2006

In this paper, the adaptive fuzzy sliding mode controller with two systems is designed. The existing sliding mode controller used to $approximation{\^{u}}(t)$ with discrete sgn function and sat function for keeping the state trajectories on the sliding surface[1]. The proposed controller decrease the disturbance for uncertain control gain and This paper is concerned with an Adaptive Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control(AFSMC) that the fuzzy systems ate used to approximate the unknown functions of nonlinear system. In the adaptive fuzzy system, we adopt the adaptive law to approximate the dynamics of the nonlinear plant and to adjust the parameters of AFSMC. The stability of the suggested control system is proved via Lyapunov stability theorem, and convergence and robustness properties ate demonstrated. Futhermore, fuzzy tuning improve tracking abilities by changing some sliding conditions. In the traditional sliding mode control, ${\eta}$ is a positive constant. The increase of ${\eta}$ has led to a significant decrease in the rise time. However, this has resulted in higher overshoot. Therefore the proposed ${\eta}$ tuning AFSMC improve the performances, so that the controller can track the trajectories faster and more exactly than ordinary controller. The simulation results demonstrate that the performance is improved and the system also exhibits stability.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.824-835
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• 1999

Background: Sleep-related breathing disorders are commonly found in patients with chronic renal failure and particularly, sleep apnea may have an influence on the long-term mortality rates in these patients. Maintenance hemodialysis is the mainstay of medical measures for correcting the metabolic derangements of chronic renal failure but it is uncertain whether it may alleviate sleep disorders including sleep apnea. Methods: Forty seven patients on maintenance hemodialysis were surveyed with the sleep questionnaire about their clinical symptoms related to sleep disorders. Among them, 15 patients underwent the polysomnography and their blood levels of urea nitrogen, creatinine, electrolytes and the arterial blood gases in the nights before and following hemodialysis were measured. Results: Forty(85.1%) of the 47 patients complained of the symptoms associated with sleep-wake cycle disturbances, 55.3% experienced snoring and 27.7% reported witnessed apneas. The duration of REM sleep increased significantly in the nights after hemodialysis compared to the nights without hemodialysis(p<0.05) and the percentage of total sleep time comprising NREM sleep decreased significantly in the nights following hemodialysis compared to the nights before hemodialysis(p<0.05). The percentage of total sleep time consisting of the stage 1 and 2 NREM sleep showed the trend for a decrease in the nights after hemodialysis(p=0.051), while the percentage of total sleep time comprising the stage 3 and 4 NREM sleep did not change between nights. The obstructive sleep apnea was more predominant type than the central one in both nights and there were no differences in the apnea index and the apnea-hypopnea index between the nights. The decrease in the blood level of urea nitrogen, creatinine, potassium and phosphorus was observed after hemodialysis(p<0.05), but the differences of parameters measured during polysomnography between the nights did not correlate with the changes of biochemical factors obtained on the two nights. Arterial blood gas analysis showed that pH was significantly greater in the nights after hemodialysis than in the nights before hemodialysis(p<0.05), but there were no correlations between the parameters examined during polysomnography and the parameters of arterial blood gas analysis(p<0.05). Conclusion: These results suggest that chronic renal failure is an important systemic disorder which is strongly associated with sleep disorders. Maintenance hemodialysis, although it is a widely accepted measure to treat chronic renal failure, did not significantly modulate the sleep architecture and the severity of sleep apnea. Thus, taking the patients with chronic renal failure into account, it is advisable to try not only to find a substantial way for correcting metabolic derangements but also to consider the institution of more effective treatments for sleep disorders.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.