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Optimum Population in Korea : An Economic Perspective (한국의 적정인구: 경제학적 관점)

  • Koo, Sung-Yeal
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2005
  • The optimum population of a society or country can be defined as 'the population growth path that maximizes the welfare level of the society over the whole generations of both the present and the future, under the paths allowed by its endowments of production factors such as technology, capital and labor'. Thus, the optimum size or growth rate of population depends on: (i) the social welfare function, (ii) the production function, and (iii)demographic economic interrelationship which defines how the national income is disposed into consumption(birth and education of children included) and savings on the one hand and how the demographic and economic change induced thereby, in turn, affect production capacities on the other. The optimum population growth path can, then, be derived in the process of dynamic optimization of (i) under the constraints of (ii) and (iii), which will give us the optimum population growth rate defined as a function of parameters thereof. This paper estimates the optimum population growth rate of Korea by: specifying (i), (ii), and (iii) based on the recent development of economic theories, solving the dynamic optimization problem and inserting empirical estimates in Korea as the parametric values. The result shows that the optimum path of population growth in Korea is around TFR=1.81, which is affected most sensitively, in terms of the size of the partial elasticity around the optimum path, by the cost of children, share of capital income, consumption rate, time preference, population elasticity of utility function, etc. According to a survey implemented as a follow up study, there are quite a significant variations in the perceived cost of children, time preference rate, population elasticity of utility across different socio-economic classes in Korea, which implied that, compared to their counterparts, older generation and more highly educated classes prefer higher growth path for the population of Korea.

An Interpretation of Symbols in Water Gardens of Old Palaces - Based on the Archetype Theory of Jung - (융(Jung)의 원형론의 관점에서 본 궁궐 수공간의 상징성 - 공간구조와 디테일에 나타난 상징의미를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Mi-Bang;Kim, Han-Bai
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.60-71
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to provide a unified examination of apparently quite different gardens in terms of Carl Jung's psychological concepts such as Archetypes, Individualization, and a natural tendency towards balance or wholeness. In Jung's psychological framework, Archetypes are innate, universal prototypes for ideas and function as the first original models upon which all other similar persons, objects or concepts are derived, copied or patterned. Jung proposes that Individualization be achieved through a natural tendency towards balance, especially the balance between the conscious and the unconscious. This paper deals with three gardens, each of which represents a distinct cultural region: Bu-Yong Ji(芙蓉池) at the Changdeok Palace(Oriental), the Patio of the Lions at the Alhambra(Islamic), and the Fountain of Apollo at the Versailles Palace(Western). It is argued that all of three have in common a natural tendency towards balance and symbolize mandala, the archetype of wholeness. Bu-Yong Ji is in the form of quadrangle which embodies Yin and Yang. In the Patio of the Lions, the basin at the center and the four channels, which symbolize the waterway of the Garden of Eden and the four rivers in Paradise respectively, are constructed in the form of a quadripartite composition. The overlapped circle and rectangular shaped pond of the Fountain of Apollo also represents mandala. Symbols representing the same archetype can vary from culture to culture. This explains the differences among the three gardens with respect to specific aspects of external forms. In other words, an archetypal image can give rise to various forms in different cultures, and thus quite different mediums of design or design details may be developed. In conclusion, the three gardens give us a good example as to how an archetypal image can be expressed in different ways from culture to culture and how seemingly different design details can be analyzed in a unified way.

An Empirical Study of Social Network Service (SNS) Continuance: Incorporating the Customer Value-Satisfaction-Loyalty Model into the IS Continuance Model (소셜 네트워크 서비스(SNS)의 지속이용의도에 관한 연구: IS 지속이용모델과 고객 가치-만족-충성도 모델의 통합적 접근)

  • Choi, Sujeong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2013
  • Given that smartphone-based social network services (SNS), such as KakaoStory is now being widely used as a way for people to connect and communicate with each other, this study examines key factors leading to the continued use of SNS. People have been using PC-based SNS, such as Cyworld, for years are now using smartphone-based SNS, such as KakaoStory. KakaoStory developed by KakaoTalk has rapidly grown up as the largest smartphone-based SNS in Korea as smartphone penetration increases. It is more difficult for firms to maintain their current users over time in that alternative SNSs satisfying people's new needs are constantly emerging and evolving. In this sense, one of the most challenging issues for SNS firms is how to retain their current users in the long run. However, there are few empirical studies on this issue. Applying the IS continuance model proposed by Bhattacherjee [2001], this study explores key determinants of users' smartphone-based SNS continuance intention. The model suggests that perceived usefulness and user satisfaction are the key determinants of IS continuance intention. However, the model includes only the utilitarian value that users can obtain through the use of smartphone-based SNS, by considering perceived usefulness. Therefore, the study attempts to extend the IS continuance model by considering hedonic and social values simultaneously. More specifically, we consider subjective norms as social value that are proposed by the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior. We also consider perceived enjoyment as hedonic value that is emphasized as a key factor influencing users' behavior intention and actual behavior, particularly in the context of hedonic IS use. By considering the three values in our model simultaneously, we could offer a deeper understanding of smartphone-based SNS continuance. That is, this study could offer an explanation of how each value is associated with user satisfaction and SNS continuance intention. The customer value-satisfaction-loyalty model can strengthen the assertion that smartphone-based SNS continuance intention is determined by various different types of customer values, such as utilitarian, hedonic, and social ones. Moreover, the model provides a theoretical basis for the assertion that customer values lead to increased loyalty via customer satisfaction. In this regard, we theorize that SNS continuance intention is influenced by users' various values, namely perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment, and subjective norms, via user satisfaction. To test the proposed research model and hypotheses, we conducted a partial least squares analysis using a total of 253 data collected on the users of smartphone-based SNS (i.e., KakaoStory). The key findings are as follows: First, it has been found that SNS continuance intention considerably depends on user satisfaction. Second, user satisfaction is determined by confirmation, perceived usefulness, and perceived enjoyment. Third, concerning the effects of the three values on SNS continuance intention, only perceived enjoyment regarded as hedonic value was statistically significant. That is, perceived usefulness considered as utilitarian value and subjective norms considered as social value had no effect on SNS continuance intention. Finally, our results indicate that confirmation increases perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment, and user satisfaction. The results reconfirm the effectiveness of IS continuance model in predicting smartphone-based SNS continuance intention. Moreover, the results demonstrate that perceived enjoyment reflecting hedonic value is the most important predictor of SNS continuance intention. Therefore, it is imperative for firms to meet SNS users' hedonic value to retain them in the long run. Meanwhile, we could not find any empirical evidence to support the assertion that subjective norms are associated with user satisfaction and SNS continuance intention. The results lead us to conclude that when users have enough direct experience in SNS use, subjective norms have no effect on SNS continuance intention. Discussions and implications of the results are provided.

A Study on the Present Conditions of Conservation & Management of the Natural Monuments of Korea (국내(國內)의 천연기념물(天然記念物) 보존(保存) 관리(管理) 실태(實態))

  • Na, Moung-Ha;Lee, Jin-Hee;Lee, Jae-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2010
  • This study is aimed at reviewed and analyzed in order to suggest the improved plans related to natural monuments. The summary of this study is as followings; First, Replacing the current term 'cultural properties', which denotes the meaning of 'goods', we need to devise an new categorization that separates such properties into cultural heritage and natural heritage under the national heritage framework. Second, the designation criteria for natural monuments should be divided into the individual realm for animals and plants respectively, since they are not divided in the current Act. Third, the guidelines for naming of natural monuments should be established with the following new categories in accordance with the clear standards. Fourth, such imbalances require us to give priority to the relatively neglected types and areas. Fifth, as the big and old trees account for more than a half of the designated plants, it is necessary to search out new resources(wet plant communities, seashores, sand dune plant communities, etc.) such as geological resources, mineral springs, hot springs, and fossils that are in danger of completely being exploited and exhausted. While most of the designated animals are protected nationally, the existing designation system is required to protect habitats and breeding places for the systematic and efficient conservation. Sixth, as long as we need to preserve those historical and cultural resources for the future generations from national and global perspectives, we should enhance their values by designating them as natural monuments even though they are protected by other regulations such as the natural environment area. Seventh, as a result of the survey, we found that more budgets and experts in the local governments, more empowered organizations, more active public participation should be provided for the better Natural Monument management in Korea. Eighth, the Lap of Natural Heritage in the National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage needs to be developed to the Natural Heritage Institute to conduct the diverse activities such as researches, restoration, exhibition and education programs in a systematic and efficient way. Ninth and the last, major damages to natural monuments can be generally categorized into the artificial one and natural one, respectively. The artificial damages include toxics, soil covering, excessive humidity, fire, construction and management works, unlawful damages, fishing, oil spillage, etc, and the natural ones include lightning, storms(typhoons), heavy snowfalls, damage by insects and diseases, lack of prey, etc. This study will become meaningful in that it proposes specific measures for the improvement of the institutions, designation, and management of natural monuments on the basis of the comprehensive analysis on natural monuments. We wish to leave the other subjects related with this study to the future researches.

A Inquiry of the Perception of Death in School Age (학령기 아동의 죽음인식에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Joun, Young-Ran
    • Korean Journal of Hospice Care
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: This paper aims to examine the subjective structures and types of school age children's perception of death through an investigative study on their perception of death in order to provide a basic material for them to understand death, and develop and carry out an effective death education program. Methods: The study method used the Q Methodology which can investigate the subjective structures and types of school age children's perception of death. For Q-population, 20 school age children were used as subjects for neutral interviews and open surveys, and through documentary research, a total of 132 statements were collected, For Q-samples, 23 statements (Q-samples) were derived through a non-structural method. P-samples were 31 school age children (8-13 year olds), Q-sorting was carried out using Q-cards, and the collected data was analyzed using the PC QUANL program. Results: As a result of the study, children's perception of death was divided into five types. The first type was functional type, characterized by prominent subjective perception regarding the elements of death, such as non-reversibility, universality, non-functionality, and causality. The second was after-life type, characterized by a strong, focus on life after death in one's perception of death, and it included children with Christian background and those who had experienced death in their immediate family. The third was religious type, characterized by a strong belief in being able to still watch over one's family and friends after one's death, resulting in a positive faith in the after-life. The fourth was fearful type, characterized by a deeper fear of death in comparison to other types. The fifth was realistic type, characterized by a strong and positive assent to the perception of good death. Conclusion: The significance of the results of this paper's study to Nursing is as follows. In terms of understanding the subjectivity of school age children's perception of death in nursing practice, and understanding the compositional elements of death presented with strong emphasis in existing literature and studies, the results will expand these understandings and allow us to understand the level of perception in school age children regarding the definition of death, after-life, and good death, be utilized as useful material in developing an effective death education program for them according to their type characteristics, and become the fertilizer for enabling the children to live a proper life and preventing the tendency to make light of death that occur in adolescence and the spread of suicides. In terms of nursing theory, the description and examination of the subjective structures and the characteristics of the different, types of school age children's perception of death can be utilized as useful material for building a model of school age children's perception of death, and be further used for teaching respect for life. In terms of nursing research, the results can contribute to research describing the effects of nursing intervention strategies and developing tools for providing psychosocial nursing in terms of giving school age children a positive perception of death according to their types as well respect for life.

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A Study of Segmental and Syllabic Intervals of Canonical Babbling and Early Speech

  • Chen, Xiaoxiang;Xiao, Yunnan
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.28
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    • pp.115-139
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    • 2012
  • Interval or duration of segments, syllables, words and phrases is an important acoustic feature which influences the naturalness of speech. A number of cross-sectional studies regarding acoustic characteristics of children's speech development found that intervals of segments, syllables, words and phrases tend to change with the growing age. One hypothesis assumed that decreases in intervals would be greater when children were younger and smaller decreases in intervals when older (Thelen,1991), it has been supported by quite a number of researches on the basis of cross-sectional studies (Tingley & Allen,1975; Kent & Forner,1980; Chermak & Schneiderman, 1986), but the other hypothesis predicted that decreases in intervals would be smaller when children were younger and greater decreases in intervals when older (Smith, Kenney & Hussain, 1996). Researchers seem to come up with conflicting postulations and inconsistent results about the change trends concerning intervals of segments, syllables, words and phrases, leaving it as an issue unresolved. Most acoustic investigations of children's speech production have been conducted via cross-sectional designs, which involves studying several groups of children. So far, there are only a few longitudinal studies. This issue needs more longitudinal investigations; moreover, the acoustic measures of the intervals of child speech are hardly available. All former studies focus on word stages excluding the babbling stages especially the canonical babbling stage, but we need to find out when concrete changes of intervals begin to occur and what causes the changes. Therefore, we conducted an acoustic study of interval characteristics of segments and words concerning Canonical Babble ( CB) and early speech in an infant aged from 0;9 to 2;4 acquiring Mandarin Chinese. The current research addresses the following two questions: 1. Whether decreases in interval would be greater when children were younger and smaller when they were older or vice versa? 2. Whether the child speech concerning the acoustic features of interval drifts in the direction of the language they are exposed to? The female infant whose L1 was Southern Mandarin living in Changsha was audio- and video-taped at her home for about one hour almost on a weekly basis during her age range from 0;9 to 2;4 under natural observation by us investigators. The recordings were digitized. Parts of the digitized material were labeled. All the repetitions were excluded. The utterances were extracted from 44 sessions ranging from 30 minutes to one hour. The utterances were divided into segments as well as syllable-sized units. Age stages are 0;9-1;0,1;1-1;5, 1;6-2;0, 2;1-2;4. The subject was a monolingual normal child from parents with a good education. The infant was audio-and video-taped in her home almost every week. The data were digitized, segments and syllables from 44 sessions spanning the transition from babble to speech were transcribed in narrow IPA and coded for analysis. Babble was coded from age 0;9-1;0, and words were coded from 1;0 to 2;4, the data has been checked by two professionally trained persons who majored in phonetics. The present investigation is a longitudinal analysis of some temporal characteristics of the child speech during the age periods of 0;9-1;0, 1;1-1;5, 1;6-2;0, 2;1-2;4. The answer to Research Question 1 is that our results are in agreement with neither of the hypotheses. One hypothesis assumed that decreases in intervals would be greater when children were younger and smaller decreases in intervals when older (Thelen,1991); but the other hypothesis predicted that decreases in intervals would be smaller when children were younger and greater decreases in intervals when older (Smith, Kenney & Hussain, 1996). On the whole, there is a tendency of decrease in segmental and syllabic duration with the growing age, but the changes are not drastic and abrupt. For example, /a/ after /k/ in Table 1 has greater decrease during 1;1-1;5, while /a/ after /p/, /t/ and /w/ has greater decrease during 2;1-2;4. /ka/ has greater decrease during 1;1-1;5, while /ta/ and /na/ has greater decrease during 2;1-2;4.Across the age periods, interval change experiences lots of fluctuation all the time. The answer to Research Question 2 is yes. Babbling stage is a period in which the children's acoustic features of intervals of segments, syllables, words and phrases is shifted in the direction of the language to be learned, babbling and children's speech emergence is greatly influenced by ambient language. The phonetic changes in terms of duration would go on until as late as 10-12 years of age before reaching adult-like levels. Definitely, with the increase of exposure to ambient language, the variation would be less and less until they attain the adult-like competence. Via the analysis of the SPSS 15.0, the decrease of segmental and syllabic intervals across the four age periods proves to be of no significant difference (p>0.05). It means that the change of segmental and syllabic intervals is continuous. It reveals that the process of child speech development is gradual and cumulative.

The inference about the cause of death of Korean Fir in Mt. Halla through the analysis of spatial dying pattern - Proposing the possibility of excess soil moisture by climate changes - (한라산 구상나무 공간적 고사패턴 분석을 통한 고사원인 추정 - 기후변화에 따른 토양수분 과다 가능성 제안 -)

  • Ahn, Ung San;Kim, Dae Sin;Yun, Young Seok;Ko, Suk Hyung;Kim, Kwon Su;Cho, In Sook
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the density and mortality rate of Korean fir at 9 sites where individuals of Korean firs were marked into the live and dead trees with coordinates on orthorectified aerial images by digital photogrammetric system. As a result of the analysis, Korean fir in each site showed considerable heterogeneity in density and mortality rate depending on the location within site. This make it possible to assume that death of Korean fir can occur by specific factors that vary depending on the location. Based on the analyzed densities and mortality rates of Korea fir, we investigated the correlation between topographic factors such as altitude, terrain slope, drainage network, solar radiation, aspect and the death of Korean fir. The density of Korean fir increases with altitude, and the mortality rate also increases. A negative correlation is found between the terrain slope and the mortality rate, and the mortality rate is higher in the gentle slope where the drainage network is less developed. In addition, it is recognized that depending on the aspect, the mortality rate varies greatly, and the mean solar radiation is higher in live Korean fir-dominant area than in dead Korean fir-dominant area. Overall, the mortality rate of Korean fir in Mt. Halla area is relatively higher in areas with relatively low terrain slope and low solar radiation. Considering the results of previous studies that the terrain slope has a strong negative correlation with soil moisture and the relationship between solar radiation and evaporation, these results lead us to infer that excess soil moisture is the cause of Korean fir mortality. These inferences are supported by a series of climate change phenomena such as precipitation increase, evaporation decrease, and reduced sunshine duration in the Korean peninsula including Jeju Island, increase in mortality rate along with increased precipitation according to the elevation of Mt. Halla and the vegetation change in the mountain. It is expected that the spatial patterns in the density and mortality rate of Korean fir, which are controlled by topography such as altitude, slope, aspect, solar radiation, drainage network, can be used as spatial variables in future numerical modeling studies on the death or decline of Korean fir. In addition, the method of forest distribution survey using the orthorectified aerial images can be widely used as a numerical monitoring technique in long - term vegetation change research.

Present Status and Prospect of Valuation for Tangible Fixed Asset in South Korea (유형고정자산 가치평가 현황: 우리나라 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jin-Hyung Cho;Hyun-Seung O;Sae-Jae Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2023
  • The records system is believed to have started in Italy in the 14th century in line with trade developments in Europe. In 1491, Luca Pacioli, a mathematician, and an Italian Franciscan monk wrote the first book that described double-entry accounting processes. In many countries, including Korea, the government accounting standards used single-entry bookkeeping rather than double-entry bookkeeping that can be aggregated by account subject. The cash-based and single-entry bookkeeping used by the government in the past had limitations in providing clear information on financial status and establishing a performance-oriented financial management system. Accordingly, the National Accounting Act (promulgated in October 2007) stipulated the introduction of double-entry bookkeeping and accrual accounting systems in the government sector from January 1, 2009. Furthermore, the Korean government has also introduced International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and the System of National Accounts (SNA). Since 2014, Korea owned five national accounts. In Korea, valuation began with the 1968 National Wealth Statistics Survey. The academic origins of the valuation of national wealth statistics which had been investigated by due diligence every 10 years since 1968 are based on the 'Engineering Valuation' of professor Marston in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Iowa State University in the 1930s. This field has spread to economics, etc. In economics, it became the basis of capital stock estimation for positive economics such as econometrics. The valuation by the National Wealth Statistics Survey contributed greatly to converting the book value of accounting data into vintage data. And in 2000 National Statistical Office collected actual disposal data for the 1-digit asset class and obtained the ASL(average service life) by Iowa curve. Then, with the data on fixed capital formation centered on the National B/S Team of the Bank of Korea, the national wealth statistics were prepared by the Permanent Inventory Method(PIM). The asset classification was also classified into 59 types, including 2 types of residential buildings, 4 types of non-residential buildings, 14 types of structures, 9 types of transportation equipment, 28 types of machinery, and 2 types of intangible fixed assets. Tables of useful lives of tangible fixed assets published by the Korea Appraisal Board in 1999 and 2013 were made by the Iowa curve method. In Korea, the Iowa curve method has been adopted as a method of ASL estimation. There are three types of the Iowa curve method. The retirement rate method of the three types is the best because it is based on the collection and compilation of the data of all properties in service during a period of recent years, both properties retired and that are still in service. We hope the retirement rate method instead of the individual unit method is used in the estimation of ASL. Recently Korean government's accounting system has been developed. When revenue expenditure and capital expenditure were mixed in the past single-entry bookkeeping we would like to suggest that BOK and National Statistical Office have accumulated knowledge of a rational difference between revenue expenditure and capital expenditure. In particular, it is important when it is estimated capital stock by PIM. Korea also needs an empirical study on economic depreciation like Hulten & Wykoff Catalog A of the US BEA.

Confucian Cultivation of Mind and Meditation - The Care Model of Cultivation Applied by Toe-gye' 『The Method on Preservation of Human mind (活人心方)』 (유가 공부론과 명상 - 퇴계 활인심방(活人心方)을 응용한 수양치료 모형 -)

  • Lee, Yun-do
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.28
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    • pp.363-386
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between theory of Confucian moral cultivation and meditation. Recently our community is more interested in 'a disease of mind'. A view of world, life, values which derived from the distorted perception of 'a disease of mind' can not be treated by psychiatric methods. In this sense, 'a disease of mind' is different from psychiatric illness. In this reason, alternative therapies applying philosophy, literature, arts, and humanities are attracting attention. Meditation is also one of them. In general, Meditation has been developed in Buddhism, but its method is closely related with Confucianism. Buddhist meditation has a pessimistic view of the reality in human life, but that of Confucian philosophy has laid stress on the reality and ego in human life. At this point, the Confucian meditation could provide a clue of solution for us in treatment of a disease of human mind. So Confucian moral cultivation and meditation have a great significance for the treatment of this disease as a methodology. In general, mental healing or psychotherapy has been proceeded by way of dialogue. 'Talking Cure' was conceived to let clients themselves recognize their current situation and find out the problem: "what happened and what's wrong" in their minds. But it does not have a high possibility of successful cure for subjects who are in the state of frustration, confusion, and lost of value. And also it is very difficult to apply to special institutions such as correctional institutions and military soldier who are targeted by current application of Humanities therapy. On this sense, it seems to be valuable to apply Confucian cultivation of mind and meditation which have emphasized the importance of mind-control for this. This study tries to examine theoretically how to relate the Confucian cultivation of mind with meditation, and to suggest a model of Humanities therapy that could be applied by Toe-gye's 『The Method on Preservation of Human mind(活人心方)』. Although Confucian cultivation of mind could present a meaningful theory for curing the disease of mind, it is very difficult to put the theory into practice. It is because Confucian cultivation of mind in itself is a kind of instruction that you need to do in all of your life, and essentially it is difficult to expect a temporary effect by performance or practice. So a cure model of Confucian cultivation of mind will be suggested on this assumption and limitations. This model is attempted on the main purpose of Humanities therapy in accordance with the development of a Korean model.

The lesson From Korean War (한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Il-Young
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.8
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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