• 제목/요약/키워드: Trend Curve

검색결과 303건 처리시간 0.025초

경주 단석산 상수리나무 우점식분 군집구조의 19년간의 변화 (19 years of change in community structure of Quercus acutissima dominant stand on Mt. Danseok-san in Gyeongju national park, South Korea)

  • 고재기
    • 한국습지학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 경주 단석산 상부 남사면의 상수리나무 우점 식분의 군집구조 변화를 파악하기 위하여 고정 방형구 20개를 설치하고 1999년부터 2018년까지 5회의 매목조사를 실시하였다. 밀도는 1999년에 0.33에서 2012년에 0.20으로 감소하였으나 2018년에는 0.24로 다소 증가하였다. 전체 수목의 흉고직경계분포를 보면, 1999년에는 역J자 유사한 모양의 분포를 나타내었으나 그 후 분포가 변화되어 2018년에는 어린 개체들에서는 역J자 모양이, 성숙한 개체들에서는 종 모양이 나타나 전체적으로는 두 곡선이 연결된 형태의 분포를 나타내었다. 흉고직경 13cm이하에서는 수목들의 경쟁이 심하였으나 그 이상에서는 완화되는 것으로 나타났다. 최우점종인 상수리나무의 흉고직경계 분포는 종 모양의 분포를 보였고, 시간이 지남에 따라 흉고직경이 큰 쪽으로 분포가 이동하지만 개체수는 줄어들었고, 신갈나무는 낮은 종 모양의 분포가 점점 높아지는 변화를 보였다. 흉고직경계분포의 변화로 볼 때, 단석산의 상수리나무 식분은 이차천이의 초기 단계에서 중간 단계로 삼림천이가 진행 중인 것으로 판단이 되며, 현재 본 식분의 최우점종은 상수리나무이고 준우점종은 신갈나무이지만, 향후 신갈나무가 최우점종인 식분으로의 천이가 진행될 것으로 예상된다.

Mortality Characteristics and Prediction of Female Breast Cancer in China from 1991 to 2011

  • Shi, Xiao-Jun;Au, William W.;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Chen, Lin-Xiang;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.2785-2791
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    • 2014
  • Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

Colorectal Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Predictions in China, 1991-2011

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Dong, Hong-Li;Sang, Xue-Jin;Xie, Bin;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Jia, Xiao-Yue;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권17호
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    • pp.7991-7995
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    • 2015
  • Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

Characteristics and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2013

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Dong, Hong-Li;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권14호
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    • pp.5829-5834
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    • 2015
  • Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

A Single-Center Experience of Robotic-Assisted Spine Surgery in Korea : Analysis of Screw Accuracy, Potential Risk Factor of Screw Malposition and Learning Curve

  • Bu Kwang Oh;Dong Wuk Son;Jun Seok Lee;Su Hun Lee;Young Ha Kim;Soon Ki Sung;Sang Weon Lee;Geun Sung Song;Seong Yi
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제67권1호
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    • pp.60-72
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    • 2024
  • Objective : Recently, robotic-assisted spine surgery (RASS) has been considered a minimally invasive and relatively accurate method. In total, 495 robotic-assisted pedicle screw fixation (RAPSF) procedures were attempted on 100 patients during a 14-month period. The current study aimed to analyze the accuracy, potential risk factors, and learning curve of RAPSF. Methods : This retrospective study evaluated the position of RAPSF using the Gertzbein and Robbins scale (GRS). The accuracy was analyzed using the ratio of the clinically acceptable group (GRS grades A and B), the dissatisfying group (GRS grades C, D, and E), and the Surgical Evaluation Assistant program. The RAPSF was divided into the no-breached group (GRS grade A) and breached group (GRS grades B, C, D, and E), and the potential risk factors of RAPSF were evaluated. The learning curve was analyzed by changes in robot-used time per screw and the occurrence tendency of breached and failed screws according to case accumulation. Results : The clinically acceptable group in RAPSF was 98.12%. In the analysis using the Surgical Evaluation Assistant program, the tip offset was 2.37±1.89 mm, the tail offset was 3.09±1.90 mm, and the angular offset was 3.72°±2.72°. In the analysis of potential risk factors, the difference in screw fixation level (p=0.009) and segmental distance between the tracker and the instrumented level (p=0.001) between the no-breached and breached group were statistically significant, but not for the other factors. The mean difference between the no-breach and breach groups was statistically significant in terms of pedicle width (p<0.001) and tail offset (p=0.042). In the learning curve analysis, the occurrence of breached and failed screws and the robot-used time per screw screws showed a significant decreasing trend. Conclusion : In the current study, RAPSF was highly accurate and the specific potential risk factors were not identified. However, pedicle width was presumed to be related to breached screw. Meanwhile, the robot-used time per screw and the incidence of breached and failed screws decreased with the learning curve.

어린이 생활한복 저고리 형태의 변화양상에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Changes of Shape for Children's Saenghwal Hanbok Jeogori)

  • 정혜경;이미정
    • 복식문화연구
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2003
  • The objectives of this study are to consider the shape for children's Saenghwal Hanbok and to analyze the trend up to date. Conclusions are described as follows: 1. Children's Saenghwal Hanbok was found in magazine about Hanbok from 1994. The design was various, for it was influenced by adult's Saenghwal Hanbok. From 1997, design of children's Saenghwal Hanbok was come to stay in a revival mood. 2. The Jeogori shape for children's Saenghwal Hanbok was as follows: Git was used several traditional git and western color from the initial to the recent period: Dong-Jeong was not attached in the initial period, but mostly attached with its ends sauare from 1997; Seop was not attached or transformed in the initial period, but attached in a traditional way (trapezoid-shaped) or a new way(rectangle-shaped) from 1998. The front was fastened on the right chest; the sleeves wert long or above-elbow or three quarter sleeve; Baerae was a curved shape in the initial period, but changed into a near-straight line with a slight curve; Jin-Dong line was straight for boys, but curve or not to be tot girls; Pocket was attached for boys, not attached for girls.

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p-y 특성곡선의 Coupling을 고려한 토류벽의 거동해석 (The Behavior of Earth Retaining Structures Using p-y Curve with Coupling)

  • 김수일;정상섬;장범수
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.553-563
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    • 1994
  • 본 연구에서는 탄소성 지반에서 지반스프링의 Coupling을 고려하여 토류벽의 거동을 해석하였다. 수치해석을 위해 벽체 양측의 지반을 탄소성 스프링으로 단순화하였고, 지반반력계수의 산정을 위해서 Terzaghi가 제안한 주동 및 수동상태에 필요한 수평변위를 p-y 특성곡선에 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 전산프로그램의 신뢰성은 기존 컴퓨터 프로그램 및 현장 실측치와의 비교를 통해 검증하였다. 검증결과 지반스프링의 Coupling을 고려한 경우가 현장 실측치의 변위 및 토압에 접근함을 알 수 있었고, 모래질 흙에서 주동상태에 필요한 수평변위의 변화가 벽체의 변위에 이주 작은 영향만을 준다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

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환경부 8일 간격 유량·수질 관측자료와 분포형 모형을 이용한 연속오염부하곡선의 유도 (Derivation of Continuous Pollutant Loadograph using Distributed Model with 8-Day Measured Flow and Water Quality Data of MOE)

  • 김철겸;김남원
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2009
  • Reliable long-term flows by SWAT-K model were applied to the relationship between stream flow and pollutant load derived from 8-day measured data of Ministry of Environment (MOE) in order to obtain continuous loadograph and evaluate accuracy in water quality modeling for the Chungju dam watershed. The measured flow were compared with flow duration curve from the model, and it showed that measured values corresponded to the almost full range of stream flow conditions except at Odae A. And there was significant relationship ($R^2=0.60{\sim}0.97$) between measured flow and water quality load at all unit-watersheds. Applying this relationship to simulated flows, continuous loadograph was obtained and compared with modeled pollutant loads. Although there were some differences during some dry and flood seasons, those were not significant and overall trend showed a good agreement. From the results, we would be able to derive a continuous loadograph based on measured data at total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) unit-watersheds on a national scale, in which stream flow and water quality have been measured at 8-day intervals since 2004, and this could be helpful to utilize distributed water quality models with difficulty in calibrating and validating parameters from lack of measured data at present.

Analysis of soil resistance on drilled shafts using proposed cyclic p-y curves in weathered soil

  • Jeong, Sangseom;Park, Jeongsik;Ko, Junyoung;Kim, Byungchul
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.505-522
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    • 2017
  • A fundamental study of drilled shafts-soil systems subjected to lateral cyclic loading in weathered soil was conducted using numerical analyses. The emphasis was on quantifying the soil resistance of laterally cyclic loaded pile using 3D finite element analysis. The appropriate parametric studies needed for verifying the cyclic p-y characteristic are presented in this paper. A framework for determining the cyclic lateral load transfer curve (p-y curves) on the basis of numerical analyses is proposed. Through comparisons with results of field load tests, the three-dimensional numerical methodology in the present study is in good agreement with the general trend observed by in situ measurements and thus, represents a realistic soil-pile interaction for laterally loaded piles in soil than that of existing p-y method. It can be said that a rigorous present analysis can overcome the limitations of existing cyclic p-y methods to some extent by considering the effect of realistic three-dimensional combination of pile-soil forces. The proposed cyclic p-y curve is shown to be capable of predicting the behavior of the drilled shafts in weathered soil.

Numerical simulation of propeller exciting force induced by milling-shape ice

  • Wang, C.;Li, X.;Chang, X.;Xiong, W.P.
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.294-306
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    • 2019
  • On the basis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics technique (CFD) combined with the overlap grid method, this paper establishes a numerical simulation method to study the problem of ice-propeller interaction in viscous flow and carries out a simulation forecast of the hydrodynamic performance of an ice-class propeller and flow characteristics when in the proximity of milling-shape ice (i.e., an ice block with a groove cut by a high-speed revolving propeller). We use a trimmed mesh in the entire calculation domain and use the overlap grid method to transfer information between the domains of propeller rotation calculation and ice-surface computing. The grid is refined in the narrow gap between the ice and propeller to ensure the accuracy of the flow field. Comparison with the results of the experiment reveals that the error of the hydrodynamic performance is within 5%. This confirms the feasibility of the calculation method. In this paper, we calculate the exciting force of the propeller, analyze the time domain of the exciting force, and obtain the curve of the frequency domain using a Fourier transform of the time-domain curve of the exciting force. The existence of milling-shape ice before the propeller can greatly disturb the wake flow field. Unlike in open water, the propeller bearing capacity shows a downward trend in three stages, and fluctuating pressure is more disordered near the ice.