• Title/Summary/Keyword: Travel demand model

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Development of Mode Choice Model for the Implementation of Next-generation High Speed Train(HEMU-430X) (차세대 고속열차 도입에 따른 수단분담모형 개발 및 적용방안)

  • LEE, Kwang Sub;CHUNG, Sung Bong;EOM, Jin Ki;NAMKUNG, Baek Kyu;KIM, Seok Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.461-469
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    • 2015
  • The next generation high-speed train, HEMU-430X, was developed and is now being tested. However, the existing mode choice models based on the guidelines for feasibility studies do not consider a high-speed train with a higher speed than KTX. This limitation might result in inaccurate demand forecasting. In this research, a stated preference survey was conducted in order to supplement the problem by considering the characteristics of HEMU-430X. Based on the survey results, this research developed two mode choice models, including a multinomial logit model and a nested logit model. For this purpose, the utility functions of travel time and travel costs were estimated using a Limdep 8.0 NLOGIT 3.0 package. After comparing the two models, it was concluded that the nested logit model is appropriate. The paper suggested a plan to implement the nested logit model and presented a policy implication.

Demand Estimation Methodology for a New Air Route (신규 항공노선에 대한 수요 예측 모델 연구)

  • Choi, Jong Haea;Yoo, Kwang Yui;Lee, Sang Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2015
  • A network connectivity has been regarded as a key element to strengthen a business competitive power in the aviation industry, so many airport authorities try to attract the new airlines and scheme out new air routes. With this trend, a study for an induced travel demand estimation methodology is needed. This study introduces a demand estimation method, especially for a new air route to a promising destination. With the results of previous studies, the derived demand is classified into four types - Local, Beyond, Behind and Bridge. The explanatory variables are established for each type of demand and the main independent variables are composed of distance, ratio of detour, and relative capacity compared with other airports. The equations using such variables and statistically significant coefficients are suggested as the model to make an estimation of derived demand for a new route. Therefore this study will be expected to take an initial step for all related parties to be involved more deeply into developing new air routes to enhance network connectivity.

Budget Estimation Problem for Capacity Enhancement based on Various Performance Criteria (다중 평가지표에 기반한 도로용량 증대 소요예산 추정)

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Lee, Sang-Min;Cho, Chong-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2008
  • Uncertainties are unavoidable in engineering applications. In this paper we propose an alpha reliable multi-variable network design problem under demand uncertainty. In order to decide the optimal capacity enhancement, three performance measures based on 3E(Efficiency, Equity, and Environmental) are considered. The objective is to minimize the total budget required to satisfy alpha reliability constraint of total travel time, equity ratio, and total emission, while considering the route choice behavior of network users. The problem is formulated as the chance-constrained model for application of alpha confidence level and solved as a lexicographic optimization problem to consider the multi-variable. A simulation-based genetic algorithm procedure is developed to solve this complex network design problem(NDP). A simple numerical example ispresented to illustrate the features of the proposed NDP model.

A Heuristic for Fleet Size and Mix Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Deadline (고객의 납기마감시간이 존재하는 이기종 차량경로문제의 발견적 해법)

  • Kang Chung-Sang;Lee Jun-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2005
  • This paper dealt with a kind of heterogeneous vehicle routing problem with known demand and time deadline of customers. The customers are supposed to have one of tight deadline and loose deadline. The demand of customers with tight deadline must be fulfilled in the deadline. However, the late delivery is allowed to customers with loose deadline. That is, the paper suggests a model to minimize total acquisition cost, total travel distance and total violation time for a fleet size and mix vehicle routing problem with time deadline, and proposes a heuristic algorithm for the model. The proposed algorithm consists of two phases, i.e. generation of an initial solution and improvement of the current solution. An initial solution is generated based on a modified insertion heuristic and iterative Improvement procedure is accomplished using neighborhood generation methods such as swap and reallocation. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using a well known numerical example.

Development of Homogeneous Road Section Determination and Outlier Filter Algorithm (국도의 동질구간 선정과 이상치 제거 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Do, Myung-Sik;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Bae, Hyun-Sook;Kim, Jong-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2004
  • The homogeneous road section is defined as one consisted of similar traffic characteristics focused on demand and supply. The criteria, in the aspect of demand, are the diverging rate and the ratio of green time to cycle time at signalized intersection, and distance between the signalized intersections. The criteria, in that or supply, are the traffic patterns such as traffic volume and its speed. In this study, the effective method to generate valuable data, pointing out the problems of removal method of obscure data, is proposed using data collected from Gonjiam IC to Jangji IC on the national highway No.3. Travel times are collected with licence matching method and traffic volume and speed are collected from detectors. Futhermore, the method of selecting homogeneous road section is proposed considering demand and supply aspect simultaneously. This method using outlier filtering algorithm can be applied to generate the travel time forecasting model and to revise the obscured of missing data transmitting from detectors. The point and link data collected at the same time on the rational highway can be used as a basis predicting the travel time and revising the obscured data in the future.

Is Compact Urban Spatial Structure Effective for Public Transportation Mode? (컴팩트형 공간구조가 대중교통수단의 이용활성화에 보다 효과적인가?)

  • Lee, Jae-Yeong;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to find the characteristics of travel behavior and accessibility in terms of spatial structure. We analyzed travel behaviors and accessibility using a mode choice model and the Complementary Accessibility Index(CAI). The urban spatial structures that were compared were a compact city (CC) versus a sprawled city (SC), and high residential density districts (HD) versus low residential density districts (LD). First, CC and HDs residents had a shorter commuting distance than the CC and LDs residents. Second, behavior models showed that the use of Private cars for commuting in SCs was found to be greater than private car use in CCs, and that public transportation modes would be encouraged in CCs. Third, changes associated with the time and cost of commuting by private car generally affect the demand for public transportation modes in the CC. Also, analysis of cross elasticity suggests that changes of subway travel time affect the demand for buses very elastically. Fourth, the CAI of SC and LD were superior to the CC and HD even though the SC inefficient urban forms in terms of spatial structure. So, the spatial distribution of population density was also found to be an important factor affecting accessibility and energy savings.

A Solution Algorithm for Elastic Demand Traffic Assignment Model Based on Dynamic Process (동적과정을 이용한 가변수요 통행배정모형의 알고리듬 개발)

  • Im, Yong-Taek;Kim, Hyeon-Myeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2006
  • Traffic assignment has been used both for predicting travel demands and for evaluating the tools for alleviating congestion on road network in advance. Some assignment models have been proposed such as equivalent mathematical minimization method, variational inequality problem, nonlinear complementary problem and fixed point method, in following the principle of Wardrop (1952) that no driver can not Improve his travel cost by unilaterally changing his route. Recently Jin(2005a) presented a traffic assignment model based on dynamic process. This paper proposes a solution algorithm for the model of Jin and assesses the performances. Compared to the Frank-Wolfe method, which has been wildly used for solving the existing assignment models, the proposed algorithm is expected to be more efficient because it does not need to evaluate the objective function. Two numerical examples are used for assessing the algorithm, and they show that the algorithm converges to user equilibrium of Wardrop.

Prediction of Volumes and Estimation of Real-time Origin-Destination Parameters on Urban Freeways via The Kalman Filtering Approach (칼만필터를 이용한 도시고속도로 교통량예측 및 실시간O-D 추정)

  • 강정규
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.7-26
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    • 1996
  • The estimation of real-time Origin-Destination(O-D) parameters, which gives travel demand between combinations of origin and destination points on a urban freeway network, from on-line surveillance traffic data is essential in developing an efficient ATMS strategy. On this need a real-time O-D parameter estimation model is formulated as a parameter adaptive filtering model based on the extended Kalman Filter. A Monte Carlo test have shown that the estimation of time-varying O-D parameter is possible using only traffic counts. Tests with field data produced the interesting finding that off-ramp volume predictions generated using a constant freeway O-D matrix was replaced by real-time estimates generated using the parameter adaptive filter.

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A Study on the Trip Assignment Model for GIS Transportation Component Development (GIS 교통 컴포넌트 개발을 위한 통행배정모형 구축)

  • Lee, Kyung-So;Rhee, Sung-Mo;Kim, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.8 no.1 s.15
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2000
  • Travel demand forecasting is the important process of transportation policy and planning, especially trip assignment is also important because it finds deficiency of network GIS can be applied to transportation due to its various merits. Recently Program development environment is changed to component-based and transportation-component is necessary. This study evolves in implementing trip assignment model with GIS and tries to apply the system to the Cheongju City.

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A Study on the Characteristics of Urban Truck Movement for the Truck based Urban Freight Demand Model (화물자동차기반 대도시 화물수요모형 구축을 위한 화물자동차 통행특성 분석)

  • Hahn, Jin-Seok;Park, Min-Choul;Sung, Hong-Mo;Kim, Hyung-Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of the study is to analyze the travel characteristics of freight trucks in metropolitan areas, focusing on activity generation, destination choice, and trip chaining behaviors. The results showed that the number of service companies at departure areas has a primary influence on the activity generation pattern and destination choice behavior of trucks in metropolitan areas. The number of trips within a trip chain is largest, in case where the prevailing industry in destination areas is wholesale or retail and the shipment item is food or beverage. These results imply that for the reasonable estimation of truck travel demand both the trip chaining behaviors and the industrial compositions in departure and destination areas should be separately considered for each type of commodity.