• Title/Summary/Keyword: Travel Characteristics

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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Suggestion on the Optimal Length of Long Tunnels Considering Traffic Safety Characteristics (교통안전 특성을 고려한 장대터널 적정길이 제시)

  • Kim, Joong-Hyo;Lee, Jeong-Hwan;Kwon, Sung Dae;Ha, Dong Ik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2014
  • Tunnel reduces travel time as and it is essential facilities for the eco-friendly road construction. In recent years, It has been accelerating the tunnel construction to provide a higher level of traffic service but a driver driving in the narrow and dark tunnel takes characteristically psychological anxiety and the restriction of the sight. Moreover, A driver passing through more than 1,000m long tunnel, as to pass inside the monotonous form of the tunnel for a long time can cause drowsiness and increase the driver load. This driver load can degrade road-holding of the inside of the long tunnel highly and pose a high risk of accidents. Accordingly, In this study is to present the proper length of the Tunnel, considering the characteristics of traffic accident. For this, this study is that the long tunnel that affects traffic safety traffic safety variables are selected and classified. Traffic safety variables are classified in detail as a variable of the traffic accident and velocity one, the applicable variables the number of the traffic accident, the ratio of the traffic accident, driving velocity, the individual vehicle velocity etc. Traffic safety variables are categorized as more than a pole length of the tunnel in order to examine its impact on correlation analysis. The results indicate significant results in traffic accidents in accordance with traffic accidents, traffic safety, selects the variable was Variable depending on the length of the tunnel traffic safety point of significantly increasing the possibility of an accident can be seen as a high point. And the point of the Distribution of selected variables in order to create a traffic safety was a significant increase in traffic safety variables was set at critical intervals. Before reaching the critical point and the corresponding length of the long tunnel was set at the proper length. In this study, the optimum length of the proposed long tunnel through the long tunnel that occur in the future to contribute to reducing traffic accidents would be able to be determined.

Study on the Travel and Tractive Characteristics of The Two-Wheel Tractor on the General Slope Ground (II)-Dynamic Side-overturn of the Tiller-trailer System- (동력경운기의 경사지견인 및 주행특성에 관한 연구 (II)-동력경운기-트레일러계의 욍골동 및 동횡전도한계)

  • 송현갑;정창주
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1978
  • Power tiller is a major unit of agricultural machinery being used on farms in Korea. About 180.000 units are introduced by 1977 and the demand for power tiller is continuously increasing as the farm mechanization progress. Major farming operations done by power tiller are the tillage, pumping, spraying, threshing, and hauling by exchanging the corresponding implements. In addition to their use on a relatively mild slope ground at present, it is also expected that many of power tillers could be operated on much inclined land to be developed by upland enlargement programmed. Therefore, research should be undertaken to solve many problems related to an effective untilization of power tillers on slope ground. The major objective of this study was to find out the travelling and tractive characteristics of power tillers being operated on general slope ground.In order to find out the critical travelling velocity and stability limit of slope ground for the side sliding and the dynamic side overturn of the tiller and tiller-trailer system, the mathematical model was developed based on a simplified physical model. The results analyzed through the model may be summarized as follows; (1) In case of no collision with an obstacle on ground, the equation of the dynamic side overturn developed was: $$\sum_n^{i=1}W_ia_s(cos\alpha cos\phi-{\frac {C_1V^2sin\phi}{gRcos\beta})-I_{AB}\frac {v^2}{Rr}}=0$$ In case of collision with an obstacle on ground, the equation was: $$\sum_n^{i=1}W_ia_s\{cos\alpha(1-sin\phi_1)-{\frac {C_1V^2sin\phi}{gRcos\beta}\}-\frac {1}{2}I_{TP} \( {\frac {2kV_2} {d_1+d_2}\)-I_{AB}{\frac{V^2}{Rr}} \( \frac {\pi}{2}-\frac {\pi}{180}\phi_2 \} = 0 $$ (2) As the angle of steering direction was increased, the critical travelling veloc\ulcornerities of side sliding and dynamic side overturn were decreased. (3) The critical travelling velocity was influenced by both the side slope angle .and the direct angle. In case of no collision with an obstacle, the critical velocity $V_c$ was 2.76-4.83m/sec at $\alpha=0^\circ$, $\beta=20^\circ$ ; and in case of collision with an obstacle, the critical velocity $V_{cc}$ was 1.39-1.5m/sec at $\alpha=0^\circ$, $\beta=20^\circ$ (4) In case of no collision with an obstacle, the dynamic side overturn was stimu\ulcornerlated by the carrying load but in case of collision with an obstacle, the danger of the dynamic side overturn was decreased by the carrying load. (5) When the system travels downward with the first set of high speed the limit {)f slope angle of side sliding was $\beta=5^\circ-10^\circ$ and when travels upward with the first set of high speed, the limit of angle of side sliding was $\beta=10^\circ-17.4^\circ$ (6) In case of running downward with the first set of high speed and collision with an obstacle, the limit of slope angle of the dynamic side overturn was = $12^\circ-17^\circ$ and in case of running upward with the first set of high speed and collision <>f upper wheels with an obstacle, the limit of slope angle of dynamic side overturn collision of upper wheels against an obstacle was $\beta=22^\circ-33^\circ$ at $\alpha=0^\circ -17.4^\circ$, respectively. (7) In case of running up and downward with the first set of high speed and no collision with an obstacle, the limit of slope angle of dynamic side overturn was $\beta=30^\circ-35^\circ$ (8) When the power tiller without implement attached travels up and down on the general slope ground with first set of high speed, the limit of slope angle of dynamic side overturn was $\beta=32^\circ-39^\circ$ in case of no collision with an obstacle, and $\beta=11^\circ-22^\circ$ in case of collision with an obstacle, respectively.

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The Comparative Study on Travel Behavior and Traffic Accident Characteristics on a Community Road - With Focus on Seoul Metropolitan City (생활도로에서의 교통행태와 교통사고특성에 관한 연구 - 서울특별시를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Joonbeom;Lee, Sooil;Choi, Jongchul;Joo, Sungkab
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, the number of crash accident victims per 100,000 population is three times higher than the average of OECD. In particular, 60% of it occurs on the community road. Thus, this study intends to analyze the causes of such accidents through a pedestrian and vehicle traffic survey. The purpose is to establish practical safety enhancement measures for community roads. In recent years, lots of changes have occurred in the pedestrian environment. A traffic survey shows that 65% of pedestrians walk on the right and 17% of people use smart-phones while walking. An eye camera experiment shows that the operation load of drivers on the community roads is more than 4 times higher than those in urban roads. According to a speed survey, 62% of vehicles drive at 30km/h or above. The characteristics of accidents on community roads are as follows. First, the ratio of accidents on the edge of the road is 2.3 times as high as those on other roads. Second, when people walk on the right, the ratio of accidents is 2.5 times as high as that of walking on the left. Third, it becomes more dangerous when people cross the road from the right to the left. The majority of accidents is caused by unsafe driving (84.4%). When a vehicle makes a left turn, the likelihood of accidents is 2.3 times as high as those caused by a right turn. The ratio of accidents caused by vehicles going backwards is 14% among all accidents. In community roads, the focus of drivers should be at least 4 times higher than those on urban roads. Thus, walking in the opposite direction of vehicles and careless behaviors are highly likely lead to accidents.

Performance Test of Hypocenter Determination Methods under the Assumption of Inaccurate Velocity Models: A case of surface microseismic monitoring (부정확한 속도 모델을 가정한 진원 결정 방법의 성능평가: 지표면 미소지진 모니터링 사례)

  • Woo, Jeong-Ung;Rhie, Junkee;Kang, Tae-Seob
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2016
  • The hypocenter distribution of microseismic events generated by hydraulic fracturing for shale gas development provides essential information for understanding characteristics of fracture network. In this study, we evaluate how inaccurate velocity models influence the inversion results of two widely used location programs, hypoellipse and hypoDD, which are developed based on an iterative linear inversion. We assume that 98 stations are densely located inside the circle with a radius of 4 km and 5 artificial hypocenter sets (S0 ~ S4) are located from the center of the network to the south with 1 km interval. Each hypocenter set contains 25 events placed on the plane. To quantify accuracies of the inversion results, we defined 6 parameters: difference between average hypocenters of assumed and inverted locations, $d_1$; ratio of assumed and inverted areas estimated by hypocenters, r; difference between dip of the reference plane and the best fitting plane for determined hypocenters, ${\theta}$; difference between strike of the reference plane and the best fitting plane for determined hypocenters, ${\phi}$; root-mean-square distance between hypocenters and the best fitting plane, $d_2$; root-mean-square error in horizontal direction on the best fitting plane, $d_3$. Synthetic travel times are calculated for the reference model having 1D layered structure and the inaccurate velocity model for the inversion is constructed by using normal distribution with standard deviations of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 km/s, respectively, with respect to the reference model. The parameters $d_1$, r, ${\theta}$, and $d_2$ show positive correlation with the level of velocity perturbations, but the others are not sensitive to the perturbations except S4, which is located at the outer boundary of the network. In cases of S0, S1, S2, and S3, hypoellipse and hypoDD provide similar results for $d_1$. However, for other parameters, hypoDD shows much better results and errors of locations can be reduced by about several meters regardless of the level of perturbations. In light of the purpose to understand the characteristics of hydraulic fracturing, $1{\sigma}$ error of velocity structure should be under 0.2 km/s in hypoellipse and 0.3 km/s in hypoDD.

Analysis on the Use Characteristics of Citizen based on Urban Green Spaces Type - Focuses on Suwon-City - (도시녹지 유형에 따른 도시민의 이용 특성 연구 - 수원시를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Yea Sung;Kim, Hyun;Ko, Jinsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The importance of green spaces in the city is growing each day. Local governments are taking charge of park development works that are having difficulty in developing and managing urban parks due to high land value as well as a shortage in finances. This is even though an urban park is defined as an urban planning facility and the law provides park area per person. Civil residents, meanwhile, are using not only urban parks provided by law but also other green areas such as rivers, reservoirs, and school playgrounds because they recognize urban green areas by the concept of use. In this study, accordingly, urban green areas were sorted into two types, urban parks, parks provided by law, and other green areas, and the difference in use pattern and use satisfaction by type was analyzed. As a result of analysis, there was no remarkable difference between the two types. According to such results, it was found that it is necessary to include other green areas, such as rivers, reservoirs, school green areas, and apartment green areas in addition to the current park green areas provided by law when park area per person is calculated, and such calculation of urban green areas reflecting local characteristics can reduce local governments' financial burden and improve the effectiveness of future urban park policies. It is judged that such results can become a plan against the cancellation of unexecuted urban facilities. The fact that accessibility factors, such as road satisfaction, access convenience, and convenient movement, are affecting satisfaction with the use of urban parks suggests that it is important to improve urban park accessibilities rather than to quantitatively expand park area in order to improve satisfaction with urban parks. Considering that people travel to urban green areas mostly by walking, it is necessary for access convenience to conduct follow-up studies such as barrier-free and securing walking stability through analysis of routes to urban green areas.

A Study on the Distributional Characteristics of Unminable Manganese Nodule Area from the Investigation of Seafloor Photographs (해저면 영상 관찰을 통한 망간단괴 채광 장애지역 분포 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sub;Jung, Mee-Sook;Park, Cheong-Kee;Ko, Young-Tak
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.173-182
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    • 2007
  • It is well known that manganese nodules enriched with valuable metals are abundantly distributed in the abyssal plain area in the Clarion-Clipperton (C-C) fracture zone of the northeast Pacific. Previous studies using deep-sea camera (DSC) system reported different observations about the relation of seafloor topographic change and nodule abundance, and they were sometimes contradictory. Moreover, proper foundation on the estimation of DSC underwater position, was not introduced clearly. The variability of the mining condition of manganese nodule according to seafloor topography was examined in the Korea Deep Ocean Study (KODOS) area, located in the C-C zone. In this paper, it is suggested that the utilization of deep towing system such as DSC is very useful approach to whom are interested in analysing the distributional characteristics of manganese nodule filed and in selecting promising minable area. To this purpose, nodule abundance and detailed bathymetry were acquired using deep-sea camera system and multi-beam echo sounder, respectively on the seamount free abyssal hill area of southern part ($132^{\circ}10'W$, $9^{\circ}45'N$) in KODOS regime. Some reasonable assumptions were introduced to enhance the accuracy of estimated DSC sampling position. The accuracy in the result of estimated underwater position was verified indirectly through the comparison of measured abundances on the crossing point of neighboring DSC tracks. From the recorded seafloor images, not only nodules and sediments but cracks and cliffs could be also found frequently. The positions of these probable unminable area were calculated by use of the recorded time being encountered with them from the seafloor images of DSC. The results suggest that the unminable areas are mostly distributed on the slope sides and hill tops, where nodule collector can not travel over.

An Analysis into the Characteristics of the High-pass Transportation Data and Information Processing Measures on Urban Roads (도시부도로에서의 하이패스 교통자료 특성분석 및 정보가공방안)

  • Jung, Min-Chul;Kim, Young-Chan;Kim, Dong-Hyo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.74-83
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    • 2011
  • The high-pass transportation information system directly collects section information by using probe cars and therefore can offer more reliable information to drivers. However, because the running condition and features of probe cars and statistical processing methods affect the reliability of the information and particularly because the section travel time is greatly influenced by whether there has been delay by signals on urban roads or not, there can be much deviation among the collected individual probe data. Accordingly, researches in multilateral directions are necessary in order to enhance the credibility of the section information. Yet, the precedent studies related to high-pass information provision have been conducted on the highway sections with the feature of continuous flow, which has a limit to be applied to the urban roads with the transportational feature of an interrupted flow. Therefore, this research aims at analyzing the features of high-pass transportation data on urban roads and finding a proper processing method. When the characteristics of the high-pass data on urban roads collected from RSE were analyzed by using a time-space diagram, the collected data was proved to have a certain pattern according to the arriving cars' waiting for signals with the period of the signaling cycle of the finish node. Moreover, the number of waiting for signals and the time of waiting caused the deviation in the collected data, and it was bigger in traffic jam. The analysis result showed that it was because the increased number of waiting for signals in traffic jam caused the deviation to be offset partially. The analysis result shows that it is appropriate to use the mean of this collected data of high-pass on urban roads as its representative value to reflect the transportational features by waiting for signals, and the standard of judgment of delay and congestion needs to be changed depending on the features of signals and roads. The results of this research are expected to be the foundation stone to improve the reliability of high-pass information on urban roads.

The Strategic Approach to FTA Governmental Negotiation Method between China (중국과의 FTA 협상방식을 위한 전략적 접근)

  • Na, Seung-Hwa
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2010
  • Since Korea establish diplomatic ties with China in 1992, korea and China have had rapid progress in most of field as politic, economy, society and culture through basing on cultural commonality and geographical adjacency. Especially, China is the biggest trading partner to korea, and also Korea is third-biggest trading country to China. They become strategic cooperating relation in 2008. Currently, in terms of international trade relation, WTO/DDA negotiation is proceeding in difficulty, but FTA has been growing and extending in the world, and the two country, china and korea, have been competitively trying wide and active FTA negotiation promotion. After Financial crisis in 1997, according to the requirement of local economic cooperation, China has shown the interest to several countries since the conclusion of FTA treaty with ASEAN in 2005. China also makes the active afford to conclude FTA with Korea. Last May 28th, this was mentioned in the meeting between president Lee and Premier Wen Jiabao, so it is anticipated that the negotiation for FTA will be started in the near future. There are many political suggestions and concerns in terms of way of negotiation korea would choose. Some economist said that "'Continuous FTA aimed at long-term protocol should be promoted between korea and China and negotiated includingly'" However, this research claims that commodity exchange, service, and investment areas should be included and it has to be comprehensive package settlement style in negotiation. This research has found out the characteristics of China's negotiation and implications through the China's existed FTA negotiation examples. Currently, China has taken Continuous or a phase-negotiation method to ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile and some other developing country and to advanced countries like New Zealand or Singapore, comprehensive package settlement method is used in FTA negotiation. In consider of the FTA negotiation between Korea and China, Korea has some problems in the commodity change area in agriculture maket's opening. While, for china, the issues would happen in service trade area, especially when encountering finance and communication industries are opened, China's economy could be exposed to some risk. In result, Korea should expand its negotiation range from commodity trade to service trade, in order to exchange both issues, then the negotiation will be concluded more easily. In other word, for FTA, korea should follow comprehensive package settlement way that is similar to New zealand and Singapore case. Through this kind of method, Korea can expect effect of creating trade, conversion of it and preoccupancy of service field in china's market against the advanced countries like Usa, Europe and Japan. Also, to have a successful FTA negotiation, korea should find out china's policy for FTA negotiation. With this information, korea will be able to suggest the way to make a profit. Systematic analysis and comparison about previous negotiation cases of china are needed before the negotiation begin.

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Analyzing the Effect of Online media on Overseas Travels: A Case study of Asian 5 countries (해외 출국에 영향을 미치는 온라인 미디어 효과 분석: 아시아 5개국을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hea In;Moon, Hyun Sil;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2018
  • Since South Korea has an economic structure that has a characteristic which market-dependent on overseas, the tourism industry is considered as a very important industry for the national economy, such as improving the country's balance of payments or providing income and employment increases. Accordingly, the necessity of more accurate forecasting on the demand in the tourism industry has been raised to promote its industry. In the related research, economic variables such as exchange rate and income have been used as variables influencing tourism demand. As information technology has been widely used, some researchers have also analyzed the effect of media on tourism demand. It has shown that the media has a considerable influence on traveler's decision making, such as choosing an outbound destination. Furthermore, with the recent availability of online information searches to obtain the latest information and two-way communication in social media, it is possible to obtain up-to-date information on travel more quickly than before. The information in online media such as blogs can naturally create the Word-of-Mouth effect by sharing useful information, which is called eWOM. Like all other service industries, the tourism industry is characterized by difficulty in evaluating its values before it is experienced directly. And furthermore, most of the travelers tend to search for more information in advance from various sources to reduce the perceived risk to the destination, so they can also be influenced by online media such as online news. In this study, we suggested that the number of online media posting, which causes the effects of Word-of-Mouth, may have an effect on the number of outbound travelers. We divided online media into public media and private media according to their characteristics and selected online news as public media and blog as private media, one of the most popular social media in tourist information. Based on the previous studies about the eWOM effects on online news and blog, we analyzed a relationship between the volume of eWOM and the outbound tourism demand through the panel model. To this end, we collected data on the number of national outbound travelers from 2007 to 2015 provided by the Korea Tourism Organization. According to statistics, the highest number of outbound tourism demand in Korea are China, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which are selected as a dependent variable in this study. In order to measure the volume of eWOM, we collected online news and blog postings for the same period as the number of outbound travelers in Naver, which is the largest portal site in South Korea. In this study, a panel model was established to analyze the effect of online media on the demand of Korean outbound travelers and to identify that there was a significant difference in the influence of online media by each time and countries. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the impact of the online news and blog eWOM on the number of outbound travelers was significant. We found that the number of online news and blog posting have an influence on the number of outbound travelers, especially the experimental result suggests that both the month that includes the departure date and the three months before the departure were found to have an effect. It is shown that online news and blog are online media that have a significant influence on outbound tourism demand. Next, we found that the increased volume of eWOM in online news has a negative effect on departure, while the increase in a blog has a positive effect. The result with the country-specific models would be the same. This paper shows that online media can be used as a new variable in tourism demand by examining the influence of the eWOM effect of the online media. Also, we found that both social media and news media have an important role in predicting and managing the Korean tourism demand and that the influence of those two media appears different depending on the country.