• ETRI Journal
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.461-472
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• 2024

We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.93-101
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• 2013

PURPOSES : This study is to investigate the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure with traffic growth patterns. The findings is to be used to tweak traffic forecast provided by traditional four step process using relevant socioeconomic and road network data. METHODS: Comprehensive statistical analysis is used to identify key explanatory variables using historical observations on traffic forecast, actual traffic counts and surrounding environments. Based on statistical results, a multiple regression model is developed to predict the effects of socioeconomic and road network attributes on traffic growth patterns. The validation of the proposed model is also performed using a different set of historical data. RESULTS : The statistical analysis results indicate that several socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure cleary affect the tendency of over- and under-estimation of road traffics. Among them, land use is a key factor which is revealed by a factor that traffic forecast for urban road tends to be under-estimated while rural road traffic prediction is generally over-estimated. The model application suggests that tweaking the traffic forecast using the proposed model can reduce the discrepancies between the predicted and actual traffic counts from 30.4% to 21.9%. CONCLUSIONS : Prediction of road traffic growth patterns based on surrounding socioeconomic and road network attributes can help develop the optimal strategy of road construction plan by enhancing reliability of traffic forecast as well as tendency of traffic growth.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.366-375
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• 2020

The network traffic prediction of a smart substation is key in strengthening its system security protection. To improve the performance of its traffic prediction, in this paper, we propose an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA), then introduce the IGSA into a wavelet neural network (WNN), iteratively optimize the initial connection weighting, scalability factor, and shift factor, and establish a smart substation network traffic prediction model based on the IGSA-WNN. A comparative analysis of the experimental results shows that the performance of the IGSA-WNN-based prediction model further improves the convergence velocity and prediction accuracy, and that the proposed model solves the deficiency issues of the original WNN, such as slow convergence velocity and ease of falling into a locally optimal solution; thus, it is a better smart substation network traffic prediction model.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.169-178
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• 2005

본 논문에서는 인터넷에서의 트래픽 엔지니어링 체제를 구축하기 위하여 트래픽 엔지니어링을 수행하기 위한 상위레벨 기능 모델을 제시하였다. 제시한 기능 모델은 트래픽 관리, 용량 관리, 그리고 네트워크 계획으로 구성된다. 트래픽 관리는 다양한 조건하에서 네트워크 성능을 최대화하는 것을 목적으로 하며, 용량 관리는 최소의 비용으로 네트워크 요구에 대한 성능 목표치를 만족시키기 위하여 네트워크가 설계되고 제공됨을 목적으로 한다. 또한 네트워크 계획은 예측된 트래픽 증가에 앞서 노드와 전송 용량이 계획되고 배치됨을 보장한다.

• 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신설비학회 2007년도 학술대회
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• pp.327-330
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• 2007

This article discusses a capacity planning method in QoS-guaranteed IP networks such as BcN (Broadband convergence Network). Since IP based networks have been developed to transport best-effort data traffic, the introduction of multi-service component in BcN requires fundamental modifications in capacity planning and network dimensioning. In this article, we present the key issues of the capacity planning in multi-service IP networks. To provide a foundation for network dimensioning procedure, we describe a systematic approach for classification and modeling of BcN traffic based on the QoS requirements of BcN services. We propose a capacity planning framework considering data traffic and real-time streaming traffic separately. The multi-service Erlang model, an extension of the conventional Erlang B loss model, is introduced to determine required link capacity for the call based real-time streaming traffic. The application of multi-service Erlang model can provide significant improvement in network planning due to sharing of network bandwidth among the different services.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.427-448
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• 2016

The stochastic phenomena of traffic network condition, such as traffic speed and density, are affected not only by exogenous traffic control but also by endogenous changes in service time during congestion. In this paper, we propose a mixed M/G/1 queuing model by introducing a condition-varying parameter of traffic congestion to reflect structural changes in the traffic network. We also develop congestion indices to evaluate network efficiency in terms of traffic flow and economic cost in traffic operating system using structure-changing queuing model, and perform scenario analysis according to various traffic network improvement policies. Empirical analysis using Korean highway traffic operating system shows that our suggested model better captures structural changes in the traffic queue. The scenario analysis also shows that occasional reversible lane operation during peak times can be more efficient and feasible than regular lane extension in Korea.

• 경영과학
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.161-169
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• 2009

A traffic analysis on the Internet has an advantage for obtaining the characteristics of transferred packets. There were many studies to understand the characteristics of the Internet traffic with mathematical statistical approach. The approach of this study is different from previous studies. We first introduced a virtual network concept to present the Internet as a simplified mathematical model. It also represents each traffic flowing on the Internet as a parallel Gaussian channel on the virtual network. We suggest the optimal capacity of each parallel Gaussian channel using some related studies on the Gaussian channel model.

• 정보과학회 논문지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.433-438
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• 2017

오늘날의 네트워크는 고속화와 유비쿼터스 환경으로 인해 다양한 응용이 급속도로 생성되고 있으며 네트워크 트래픽도 매우 복잡해지고 있다. 이에 효율적인 네트워크 운용 및 관리를 위한 구체적인 단위의 트래픽 분류가 필수적이다. 다양한 트래픽 분류 방법이 연구되고 있는 가운데 아직 트래픽을 완벽하게 분류해내는 방법론은 개발되지 않은 실정이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 네트워크 플로우의 연관성 모델을 정의하고 이를 기반으로 트래픽을 분류하는 방법을 제안한다. 트래픽 분류를 위한 네트워크 플로우의 연관성 모델은 크게 유사성 모델과 연결성 모델로 이루어진다. 제안하는 방법론을 효과적으로 적용하기 위한 방안을 제시하며 실험을 통해 본 분류 방법론이 높은 정확도와 분석률의 방법론이라는 것을 증명한다.

• 정보통신설비학회논문지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.51-64
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• 2002

This paper analyzes performance measures of a Bluetooth_based mobile home network system. The home network system consists of terminals with Bluetooth interfaces, access points (AP), a home PC, and a gateway A mobile host in wireless terminals uses Mobile IP for supporting the mobility This paper considers four types of data traffic, which are new connection traffic, handoff traffic, Internet data traffic, and control data traffic and suggests a queueing system model of the home network system, where the AP and the home PC are modeled as M/G/1 with four priority queues and the gateway is modeled as M/G/1 with a single queue The generation rate and service time of individual traffic influence their performance measures. Based ell the suggested model, we propose the elapsed time of data traffic in terms of the number of cells, the number of Home PCs, arrival rates of four types of traffic and the service rates of AP/Home PCs/Gateway To analyze influences on the elapsed time with respect to arrival rate of four types of traffic, some examples are given.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.