• ETRI Journal
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.461-472
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• 2024

We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.93-101
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• 2013

PURPOSES : This study is to investigate the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure with traffic growth patterns. The findings is to be used to tweak traffic forecast provided by traditional four step process using relevant socioeconomic and road network data. METHODS: Comprehensive statistical analysis is used to identify key explanatory variables using historical observations on traffic forecast, actual traffic counts and surrounding environments. Based on statistical results, a multiple regression model is developed to predict the effects of socioeconomic and road network attributes on traffic growth patterns. The validation of the proposed model is also performed using a different set of historical data. RESULTS : The statistical analysis results indicate that several socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure cleary affect the tendency of over- and under-estimation of road traffics. Among them, land use is a key factor which is revealed by a factor that traffic forecast for urban road tends to be under-estimated while rural road traffic prediction is generally over-estimated. The model application suggests that tweaking the traffic forecast using the proposed model can reduce the discrepancies between the predicted and actual traffic counts from 30.4% to 21.9%. CONCLUSIONS : Prediction of road traffic growth patterns based on surrounding socioeconomic and road network attributes can help develop the optimal strategy of road construction plan by enhancing reliability of traffic forecast as well as tendency of traffic growth.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.366-375
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• 2020

The network traffic prediction of a smart substation is key in strengthening its system security protection. To improve the performance of its traffic prediction, in this paper, we propose an improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA), then introduce the IGSA into a wavelet neural network (WNN), iteratively optimize the initial connection weighting, scalability factor, and shift factor, and establish a smart substation network traffic prediction model based on the IGSA-WNN. A comparative analysis of the experimental results shows that the performance of the IGSA-WNN-based prediction model further improves the convergence velocity and prediction accuracy, and that the proposed model solves the deficiency issues of the original WNN, such as slow convergence velocity and ease of falling into a locally optimal solution; thus, it is a better smart substation network traffic prediction model.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.169-178
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• 2005

This paper presented high-level function model to achieve traffic engineering to construct traffic engineering infrastructure in Internet. Function model presented include traffic management, capacity management, and network planing. It is ensured that network performance is maximized under all conditions including load shifts and failures by traffic management. It is ensured that the network is designed and provisioned to meet performance objectives for network demands at minimum cost by capacity management. Also it is ensured that node and transport capacity is planned and deployed in advance of forecasted traffic growth by network planning.

• 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.08a
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• pp.327-330
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• 2007

This article discusses a capacity planning method in QoS-guaranteed IP networks such as BcN (Broadband convergence Network). Since IP based networks have been developed to transport best-effort data traffic, the introduction of multi-service component in BcN requires fundamental modifications in capacity planning and network dimensioning. In this article, we present the key issues of the capacity planning in multi-service IP networks. To provide a foundation for network dimensioning procedure, we describe a systematic approach for classification and modeling of BcN traffic based on the QoS requirements of BcN services. We propose a capacity planning framework considering data traffic and real-time streaming traffic separately. The multi-service Erlang model, an extension of the conventional Erlang B loss model, is introduced to determine required link capacity for the call based real-time streaming traffic. The application of multi-service Erlang model can provide significant improvement in network planning due to sharing of network bandwidth among the different services.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.427-448
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• 2016

The stochastic phenomena of traffic network condition, such as traffic speed and density, are affected not only by exogenous traffic control but also by endogenous changes in service time during congestion. In this paper, we propose a mixed M/G/1 queuing model by introducing a condition-varying parameter of traffic congestion to reflect structural changes in the traffic network. We also develop congestion indices to evaluate network efficiency in terms of traffic flow and economic cost in traffic operating system using structure-changing queuing model, and perform scenario analysis according to various traffic network improvement policies. Empirical analysis using Korean highway traffic operating system shows that our suggested model better captures structural changes in the traffic queue. The scenario analysis also shows that occasional reversible lane operation during peak times can be more efficient and feasible than regular lane extension in Korea.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.161-169
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• 2009

A traffic analysis on the Internet has an advantage for obtaining the characteristics of transferred packets. There were many studies to understand the characteristics of the Internet traffic with mathematical statistical approach. The approach of this study is different from previous studies. We first introduced a virtual network concept to present the Internet as a simplified mathematical model. It also represents each traffic flowing on the Internet as a parallel Gaussian channel on the virtual network. We suggest the optimal capacity of each parallel Gaussian channel using some related studies on the Gaussian channel model.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.433-438
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• 2017

Presently, the ubiquitous emergence of high-speed-network environments has led to a rapid increase of various applications, leading to constantly complicated network traffic. To manage networks efficiently, the traffic classification of specific units is essential. While various traffic-classification methods have been studied, a methods for the complete classification of network traffic has not yet been developed. In this paper, a correlation model of the network flow is defined, and a traffic-classification method for which this model is used is proposed. The proposed network-correlation model for traffic classification consists of a similarity model and a connectivity model. Suggestion for the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in terms of accuracy and completeness through experiments.

• Journal of The Institute of Information and Telecommunication Facilities Engineering
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.51-64
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• 2002

This paper analyzes performance measures of a Bluetooth_based mobile home network system. The home network system consists of terminals with Bluetooth interfaces, access points (AP), a home PC, and a gateway A mobile host in wireless terminals uses Mobile IP for supporting the mobility This paper considers four types of data traffic, which are new connection traffic, handoff traffic, Internet data traffic, and control data traffic and suggests a queueing system model of the home network system, where the AP and the home PC are modeled as M/G/1 with four priority queues and the gateway is modeled as M/G/1 with a single queue The generation rate and service time of individual traffic influence their performance measures. Based ell the suggested model, we propose the elapsed time of data traffic in terms of the number of cells, the number of Home PCs, arrival rates of four types of traffic and the service rates of AP/Home PCs/Gateway To analyze influences on the elapsed time with respect to arrival rate of four types of traffic, some examples are given.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.